Week 15 Dynasty Stock Watch: Buy, Sell, Hold Trade Advice

Dynasty advice for how to handle the wide receiver trio of Hunter Renfrow, Jerry Jeudy and Marquise Brown.

I was talking to one of my colleagues here at Sports Illustrated about this dynasty article series and a bit about strategy. We landed on the subject of running backs and I made the point that I almost never trade for them. I went on to say that the only way I’m acquiring running backs in dynasty leagues is through the draft or the waiver wire.

This leads to this week’s dynasty tip. Running back trade pricing is too volatile and this opinion is coming from a guy who’s more than happy to live and die by the wild swings in player values. There are a few archetypes among the position: studs (Jonathan Taylor), productive young veterans (Joe Mixon), productive aging veterans (Melvin Gordon), injury-prone (Saquon Barkley), handcuffs (Alexander Mattison), PPR third-down types (J.D. McKissic), end-of-career hanger-ons (Jordan Howard), post-injury or end-of-season randoms (Derrick Gore, Craig Reynolds) and better-than-nothings (Sony Michel, Devonta Freeman). In every case, when they aren’t the guy, their value tanks. When they are the guy, their value overinflates.

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There are of course scenarios where you value a player more than the manager who has him rostered, so you can swing a good deal. That’s how trading works. But go to any running back’s game log and tell me how many have strung together five straight productive games. Now play this out over an entire career? I’d rather hoard as many backs as possible, play the matchups, churn the bottom of my roster to try to add the waiver wire back of the week so that can leave me to stockpile stud wide receivers.

The 80th-best running back can be a RB2 for a couple weeks because somebody gets hurt and he starts. The 80th-best receiver will always be 80th-best and if he has a big game, it will be 100% unpredictable unless three receivers are hurt ahead of him.

Given a running back’s shortened shelf life, the likelihood to miss a game or two, the trend toward split backfields and the usage volatility that compiles from all these issues, it pushes me toward my ride-or-die strategy. If you think a RB’s career is over or he’s due for a bounce-back, look at any back’s up-and-downs this year.

From Devonta Freeman, Howard, D’Ernest Johnson, Barkley, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Mike Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, Elijah Mitchell, Trey Sermon, James Conner and on and on … The position is a crapshoot and I won't delude myself into believing I can project it. Give me as many RB darts to throw as possible and hopefully I hit a bullseye or two. If I’m ever trading for a Tier 1 stud, it’ll be a receiver 10 out of 10 times.

Let’s ring the dynasty stock watch opening bell:

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WR Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders

How many of you had Renfrow climbing firmly into the WR2 conversation this season? It may have come at the expense of Darren Waller’s preseason hype, but anybody watching the Raiders know we’re watching the emergence of a Julian Edelman or Jamison Crowder type of possession receiver. He’s the epitome of a safety valve for Derek Carr. This may feel like a decent sell-high opportunity but I place a high value on somebody like Renfrow over a receiver like Mike Williams. I’ll take 6-70 every week over a boom-or-bust scorer, especially as my WR2.

• Price check: 2022 late-1st
• Win-now: Hold
• Rebuild: Hold

WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

Truthfully, I have no shares of Jeudy. About a third of his fantasy production last year came into two games (Week 9: 7-125-1; Week 17: 5-140-1) and the latter game was meaningless in 99% of leagues that don’t even play in the last week of the season. We’re coming up on Year 3 and the old fantasy heads will tell you about the prevalence of the third-year breakout. Maybe you can spin that in trade talks.

Jeudy looks sloppy in his route-running and his arrested development hasn’t really been held against him. I don’t like what John Elway has done with this team and his days should be numbered. There are likely many managers who feel he’s got far more trade value than Renfrow. There are probably some people reading this with their mind blown that I’m dogging Jeudy. The only reason for this is the draft capital spent on him by the Broncos. He’s done zip and zero on the field of merit. I got two words for you: Jalen Reagor. I was never on him but keep holding at your own peril.

• Price check: 2022 mid-1st, 2022 5th
• Win-now: Sell
• Rebuild: Sell

WR Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens

A month into the season, Brown looked to be delivering a breakout-caliber season. He had five touchdowns through five games. On a point-per-game average, he’s still a top-20 receiver. For comparison’s sake, given Brown’s speedy undersized receiver profile, we were hoping for Tyreek Hill. I don’t see that. I would love to see more underneath and yards after catch production.

What I’m hoping is that other people felt he had Hill’s higher ceiling and are disappointed. To my eyes, Brown peaked at the start of the season but he has shown us he can produce streaky results. That’s okay because most receivers are like that.. Lucky for us, he’s not typically the best receiver for fantasy managers that have him rostered. This gives more flexibility in how to approach him.

If I can add him as my third-best receiver, likely on a win-now, I’m hoping he finishes the season on his current underwhelming track. Dynasty managers, stewing on his poor second half to the season in the coming months, might be willing to move on from him as his value trickles down through the spring. If adding him to my roster would make him my best or second-best receiver, I have bigger concerns and he’s not a great fit. At best for rebuilds, he’s a hold and you’re hoping he finishes the season with a 40-point game to inflate his value to be used to acquire draft picks.

• Price check: 2022 mid 1st, 2022 3rd
• Win-now: Buy
• Rebuild: Hold, Sell if he finishes strong

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