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2022 Fantasy Baseball: Detroit Tigers Team Outlook
The Tigers missed the postseason for the seventh straight year in 2021, but there were signs of improvement. Detroit finished 17th in ERA (4.32). Their bullpen had 42 wins, 28 losses, and 42 saves while posting a 4.50 ERA (22nd). Offensively, the Tigers remain a bottom-tier team in runs (697 – 22nd) and home runs (179 – 24th). However, they did become more aggressive on the base paths (88 steals – 9th).
Sensing a chance to compete in the AL Central, Detroit signed SP Eduardo Rodriguez and SS Javier Baez. They decided to move on from SP Matthew Boyd, SP Jose Urena, 2B Niko Goodrum, and SP Julio Teheran. In a minor league deal, the Tigers added C Tucker Barnhart for 3B Nick Quintana.
The success and excitement of this team come from three young arms – Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning. Both Mize and Skubal flashed last season, but Manning, who came into the majors with a similar pedigree, failed to live up to expectations. The addition of Rodriguez gives Detroit competitive pitching every four out of five days.
Even with the signing of Baez, the Tigers don’t have another upper-echelon player in their starting lineup. They hope 1B/3B Spencer Torkelson comes quickly, but he may need more time at AAA. OF Akil Baddoo made the jump from High A to the majors in 2021 with reasonable success. There were many down days, along with signs of growth.
Their bullpen had a feast or famine feel. RP Michael Fulmer looked the closing part at times, but staying healthy remains a concern. RP Gregory Soto can be challenging to hit, while command remains a concern.
The Tigers have four World Series titles (1935, 1945, 1968, and 1984). They have had five playoffs appearances over the past 35 seasons, with one coming as a World Series loss in 2006. Detroit is getting closer to a winning record. However, a further step forward can’t happen without more firepower added to their offense.
Starting Lineup
OF Robbie Grossman
After failing to receive a full-time starting job over his first eight seasons in the majors, Grossman made 156 starts in 2021, leading to career-highs in runs (88), home runs (23), RBI (67), and stolen bases (20). He finished as the 54th most valuable hitter by SIscore (1.55).
More exposure to right-handed pitching (.221 with 15 home runs and 40 RBI over 385 at-bats) led to a regression in his strikeout rate (23.1 – 21.3 in his career). His top-shelf walk rate (14.6) secures a premium spot in the batting order for the Tigers despite a below-par batting average (.239).
Grossman continued to have weakness in his contact batting average (.331) and RBI rate (13). However, his jump in power came via an improved launch angle (21.1 – 9th), leading to his career's highest fly-ball rate (46.2). On the downside for home runs, he ranked 245th in hard-hit rate (34.1), with a shorter HR/FB rate (12.2) than in 2020 (16.3).
Fantasy Outlook
Grossman will be a fantasy value if he repeats his success based on his ADP (176 – 109th hitter drafted) in mid-January in the NFBC. His ability to take walks is repeatable, and he added more loft to his swing. Grossman's spike in stolen bases was supported by his past two seasons, but his age (32) and career resume in steals (57 over 2,919 at-bats) suggest this part of the equation could be a trap. I’ll set the bar at .230 with 80 runs, 15 home runs, 60 RBI, and 15 steals while passing by his draft window without a look in 2022.
OF Akil Baddoo
Minnesota drafted Baddoo in the second round of the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft at age 17. Over his four seasons in the minors, he hit .248 with 172 runs, 21 home runs, 95 RBI, and 48 stolen bases over 876 at-bats. His walk rate (13.9) had a major league feel while needing some work on his strikeout rate (22.8). Unfortunately, Baddoo only had 117 at-bats in 2019 due to TJ surgery.
As a Rule 5 player in 2021, Detroit had to carry him all season on their major league roster or offer him back to the Twins. His bat flashed over the first three weeks in April (.296 with six runs, four home runs, 13 RBI, and one steal over 44 at-bats), putting him on the fantasy radar. However, his 18 strikeouts over this span showed that Baddoo would have many down days in his rookie season.
Over his next 27 games, he hit .194 with 18 runs, one home run, seven RBI, and four stolen bases over 62 at-bats while whiffing 28 times. His approach and opportunity improved over his final 83 games (.267/46/8/35/13 over 307 at-bats). Over this span, Baddoo almost matched his minor league strikeout rate (22.6) while adding a league average walk rate (8.3). He missed two weeks in August with a concussion issue.
His hard-hit rate (32.3) ranked 264th for batters with 250 plate appearances.
Fantasy Outlook
Two things will work in Baddoo’s favor in 2022. He has talent, and the Tigers don’t have anyone better than him currently on the roster. His approach finished at the league average, giving a chance to hit first or second in the batting order. His one significant strike is left-handed pitching (.214 with no home runs and 11 RBI over 98 at-bats). I only see a platoon player with a chance at 480 at-bats. Even so, 70 runs, 20 home runs, 70 RBI, and 25 steals are still possible. The question with his playing time would push me elsewhere based on his ADP (162) in the NFBC. Tempting due to his speed, but I need to see more.
1B Spencer Torkelson
Detroit snatched up Torkelson with the first overall selection in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons at Arizona State, he hit .337 with 152 runs, 54 home runs, 130 RBI, and seven stolen bases over 498 at-bats. He finished with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104).
In his first season in pro ball, Torkelson zipped through three levels of the minors (.267 with 89 runs, 30 home runs, 91 RBI, and five steals over 431 at-bats). The Tigers gave him 147 at-bats at AAA (.238/35/11/27/1). His walk rate (14.5) remained elite while seeing his strikeout rate (21.5) slide to the league average.
Fantasy Outlook
Torkelson looks to be the next stud at first base while also seeing time at third base in the minors. The Tigers desperately need him in the middle of their lineup, which should happen early in 2022. His ADP (260) in the NFBC prices him as a starting player in the majors. Torkelson is on the verge of being a foundation .300/30/100 player if he gets 550 at-bats. I can’t see him underperforming his ADP in his rookie season.
SS Javier Baez
Other than 2020, Baez had similar production over the previous four seasons. When at his best, he offers an elite contact batting average (.418 in 2021 – .385 in his career). Unfortunately, Baez’s success in batting average is closely tied to his high strikeout rate (33.6 – 29.3 in his career). In addition, his walk rate (5.1) has never been an asset in the majors.
Last year he had two dull months (June – .157/8/5/31/1 over 91 at-bats and August – .213/9/3/5 over 63 at-bats). Baez missed 10 days in August with a back issue.
Despite a slight rise in his fly-ball rate (34.5), his swing path continues to produce a high number of ground balls (47.0 percent – 46.7 in his career), highlighted by his weakness in launch angle (10.6 – 214th). Baez posted an excellent HR/FB rate in 2018 (24.3), 2019 (24.4), and 2021 (28.2).
Fantasy Outlook
Baez has a lower ceiling in runs and RBI with less talent around him in the starting lineup. However, he brings a 30/15 baseline to his skill set while owning a risk/reward path in batting average. Baez ranked 28th in SIscore (3.93) for hitters in 2021. His ADP (64th – 42nd hitter drafted) is about a round and a half below last year’s results. I expect him to be a more significant edge at second base due to his value in speed at that position (currently ranks 5th at second base in the NFBC and 10th at shortstop).
2B Jonathan Schoop
In his first year with the Tigers in 2020, Schoop was on pace for 94 runs, 29 home runs, and 83 RBI with an entire season of at-bats when adding in his 15 games missed over the back half of September with a right wrist injury. In 2021, he repeated his path from the previous year with a slight step back in his power, highlighted by his slide in his average hit rate (1.566).
Schoop had a rebound in his RBI rate (17). His strikeout rate (19.7) was the lowest of his career while delivering a slight bump in his walk rate (5.5).
He finished with a sharp decline in his HR/FB rate (13.5 – 19.7 in 2019 and 21.1 in 2020) while continuing to hit more ground balls (48.0 percent). In addition, Schoop ranked poorly in launch angle (10.8 – 206th), barrel rate (6.8 – 196th), and hard-hit rate (158th).
His bat was almost worthless over his first 46 games (.225 over 173 at-bats with 15 runs, three home runs, and 15 RBI). However, over his next 264 at-bats, Schoop made up for lost ground by hitting .333 with 48 runs, 15 home runs, and 50 RBI). He drove the bus home with a .247 batting average with 22 runs, four home runs, and 19 RBI.
Fantasy Outlook
Schoop fits into the steady category in four categories while being a challenging ride for almost two-thirds of last season. His stats last year price him as the 64th ranked hitter by SIscore (1.08). He comes off the board as the 123rd batter in mid-January in the NFBC with an ADP of 201. Many teams will look for speed at second base, pushing Schoop down the rankings, plus he doesn’t have the proper skill set to be a starting fantasy first baseman.
3B Jeimer Candelario
After two disappointing years with the Tigers, Candelario played much better over his last 742 at-bats (.278 with 105 runs, 23 home runs, and 96 RBI). He had a massive jump in his contact batting average (.404) in the short 2020 season, but it wasn’t repeatable (.358) last year. His approach was the best of his career (strikeout rate – 21.6 and walk rate – 10.4).
Over nine seasons in the minors, Candelario didn’t have a great resume. He hit .272 over 3,007 at-bats with 80 home runs, 466 RBI, and eight steals. His walk rate (10.7) was in an area of strength with a better than league average strikeout rate (17.4). However, his bat had more value over four seasons at AAA (.297 with 33 home runs and 159 RBI over 832 at-bats).
Candelario was at his best over the second half last year (.282 with 38 runs, 11 home runs, and 43 RBI over 252 at-bats). His average hit rate (1.636) has been in a tight range over the previous three seasons.
Fantasy Outlook
His ADP (226) puts Candelario in the conversation for a corner infield option in deep formats. He had dull counting stats last year, but a league-high 42 doubles may be a sign of a pop in power—his next step: .275 with 80 runs, 20 home runs, and 80 RBI.
DH Miguel Cabrera
Early in 2022, Cabrera will pass the 3,000 hit mark (needs 13 hits), solidifying his spot in the Hall of Fame. He ranks 73rd in runs (1,505), 28th in home runs (502), and 22nd in RBI (1,804).
At age 33, Cabrera had 1,321 runs, 446 home runs, and 1,553 RBI. Then, suddenly, his bat lost momentum over the next five seasons (.264 with 184 runs, 56 home runs, and 251 RBI). In comparison, Nelson Cruz had 428 runs, 204 home runs, and 522 RBI from age 34 to 38.
Cabrera faded last year against lefties (.269 with three home runs and 19 RBI over 134 at-bats). In addition, his contact batting average (.342) and average hit rate (1.504) are well below when he was in his prime. Surprisingly, he finished with the 34th ranked hard-hit rate (49.0) but 224th in launch angle.
Fantasy Outlook
Cabrera is a great player who is riding off into the sunset. He can still hit the ball hard with a reasonable approach. His ADP (477) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft formats. Even with a flash in power, his runs and batting average project below the league average.
C Eric Haase
Despite smashing 131 home runs and 404 RBI over 2,552 at-bats in the minors with a .244 batting average, Haase didn’t have his first shot in the majors until age 28. He always had an elite average hit rate (1.988 in Detroit), with a high strikeout rate (29.9).
In July, he posted a difference-maker month (.265 with 17 runs, nine home runs, and 29 RBI over 83 at-bats). His final stats (48/22/61) ranked well for his at-bats (351). With the Tigers, Haase struck out 31.2 percent of the time. Even with 11 home runs and 36 RBI over 231 at-bats against right-handed, he only hit .204.
Fantasy Outlook
His power should get him plenty of starts again this year. He could be considered a similar player as Mike Zunino with batting average! Haase projects as a C2 in 12-team and 15-team formats. His ADP (288) works well for his projected 25 home runs and 70 RBI.
OF Victor Reyes
Over the last three seasons with the Tigers, Reyes hit .282 with 85 runs, 12 home runs, 61 RBI, and 22 stolen bases over 687 at-bats. His average hit rate (1.611) inched higher, but he could only get 209 at-bats. In addition, his strikeout rate (25.0) came in higher than his previous stints with Detroit (21.4).
He has a low fly-ball swing path (27.6 percent in his career – 26.4 in 2020), but he did have the highest HR/FB rate (11.9) of his career.
Reyes hit .302 over 2,437 at-bats in the minors with 23 home runs, 325 RBI, and 95 stolen bases over eight seasons.
Fantasy Outlook
Reyes can hit for average while lacking impact power or speed. However, he has had times in the majors with hot steaks, giving him replacement value. No draftable excitement, so Reyes will be found in the free-agent pool.
Bench Options
C Tucker Barnhart
When building a fantasy franchise in the high-stakes baseball market, the catcher position can be where a fantasy owner will try to gain an edge or one of the last pieces added to a team.
Those owners punting the catcher position are looking for an option that won't kill them in batting average while potentially offering a 50/10/50 skill set.
Barnhart hit .238 over his last 446 at-bats with 51 runs, 12 home runs, and 61 RBI. However, his strikeout rate (25.8) regressed over the past four seasons, and he had a regression in his previous favorable walk rate (7.5).
Fantasy Outlook
I don’t expect him to see over 300 at-bats for the Tigers. He offers no help in any category, making him only a placeholder C2 in deep format if Barnhart is getting starting at-bats.
2B Willi Castro
Castro came into 2021 with an intriguing combination of power and speed. Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .273 with 41 home runs, 259 RBI, and 99 steals over 2,386 at-bats. His bat made a step forward in 2019 at AAA (.301 with 11 home runs, 62 RBI, and 17 stolen bases over 465 at-bats).
In 2020, the Tigers gave him starting at-bats, leading to a .349 batting average with six home runs and 24 RBI over 129 at-bats. His contact batting average (.495) with Detroit was well above his career path in the minors.
Last year, his bat was a shell of his 2021 stats. Castro hit only .220 with 56 runs, nine home runs, 38 RBI, and nine stolen bases over 413 at-bats. In addition, his contact batting average (.299) was almost .200 percentage points lower than 2020.
Castro had a high strikeout rate (25.9) in the majors (18.3 percent in the minors) while barely taking any walks (5.1 percent). His HR/FB rate (9.0) fell well before last season (20.7). In addition, he has a low fly-ball rate (32.9).
Fantasy Outlook
His regression last year pushed him lower on the Tigers’ depth chart in 2022. Castro should work as a super-utility player, but only a waiver-wire option in fantasy drafts.
3B Isaac Paredes
Over five seasons in the minors, Paredes hit .272 with 52 home runs, 276 RBI, and 13 steals over 1,803 at-bats. He played well over two seasons at AA (.291 with 16 home runs, 88 RBI, and six stolen bases over 609 at-bats).
Last year the Tigers gave him 253 at-bats at AAA, leading to a .265 batting average with 39 runs, 11 home runs, and 42 RBI. He finished with more walks (56) than strikeouts (47).
His strikeout rate (13.2) remains a plus while having a favorable walk rate (10.6). Unfortunately, he missed some time midsummer with a hip issue.
Paredes struggled over 172 at-bats with the Tigers (.215/14/2/11).
Fantasy Outlook
His bat and approach look ready for a starting job for the Tigers. Paredes won’t have an edge in any category out of the gate, but an entire season of playing would help his counting stats. His ADP (738) is far from a draftable range while not having a clear path to a starting job.
OF Riley Greene
The Tigers would love Greene and Spencer Torkelson to arrive in the majors simultaneously, giving them two top-tier building blocks for their offense. Detroit added Greene to their franchise with the fifth overall selection in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school.
In his first year in the minors, he hit .263 over 221 at-bats with 34 runs, five home runs, 28 RBI, and five stolen bases while seeing time at rookie ball, Low A, and single-A. Detroit started him at AA in 2021, and Greene responded with productive stats (.298/59/16/54/12 over 326 at-bats), but his strikeout rate (27.3) had more risk. In mid-August, the Tigers bumped him to AAA, leading to a .308 batting average with 36 runs, eight home runs, 30 RBI, and four steals over 159 at-bats. He only had a slight dip in his strikeout rate (27.6).
Greene had a top-of-the-order walk rate (10.5) in his brief time in the minors. In addition, his contact batting average (.440) was sensational while also having a high average hit rate (1.774).
Fantasy Outlook
His future with Detroit lies in a corner outfield spot, but Greene played centerfield in 86 games last season. His speed isn’t elite, but he has a good feel for running the bases paths, based on his success rate (94.1 – 16-for-17). Greene would be an instant upgrade to the Tigers’ outfield out of spring training, but he needs to keep his strikeouts under control. His ADP (306) in the high-stakes market in the NFBC suggests that fantasy managers believe he will arrive quickly in 2022. However, I need to see his spring training progress before committing a high draft.
OF Daz Cameron
After struggling in his first two seasons in the minors (.232 over 331 at-bats with two home runs, 37 RBI, and 36 stolen bases), Cameron looked much more relevant in 2017 (.271 with 14 home runs, 74 RBI, and 32 steals over 454 at-bats) and 2018 (.264 with eight home runs, 61 RBI, and 24 steals over 473 at-bats).
Unfortunately, his bat regressed in 2019 at AAA (.214 with 13 home runs, 43 RBI, and 17 stolen bases over 448 at-bats). Last year, he hit .279 over 172 at-bats with 34 runs, six home runs, 23 RBI, and eight stolen bases in the minors.
Cameron struggled over his first 160 at-bats in the majors (.194/20/4/16/7) due to a high strikeout rate (33.0). His walk rate (10.2) was an edge in his minor league career, but he still strikes out too much (25.5).
In the 2015 MLB June Amateur Draft, the Tigers drafted him 37th overall.
Fantasy Outlook
He’ll compete for an outfield spot in spring training. Cameron doesn’t look ready to earn a starting role. However, his speed may help fantasy teams at some point in the season if Cameron improves his approach.
Starting Pitching
SP Casey Mize
In the summer of 2019, Mize looked like a lock to make the Tigers’ rotation after allowing eight runs and 41 hits over his first 75.2 innings in the minors. Over this span, he posted a 0.95 ERA and .159 BAA with 11 walks and 73 strikeouts while winning eight games with no losses. Unfortunately, Mize landed on the injured list in mid-June with a right shoulder issue. When he returned to the mound in July, his stuff lost value (6.61 ERA, .292 BAA, and 1.564 WHIP).
Over his final two seasons at Auburn, Mize went 18-8 with a 2.77 ERA, 25 walks, and 265 strikeouts over 198.1 innings. Detroit drafted him first overall in 2018.
In 2020, he underperformed expectations in his seven starts with the Tigers. Home runs (seven over 28.1 innings) were a massive problem while failing to live up to his career path in command (4.1 walks per nine).
Last year, Mize struggled in two of his five starts in April, leading to a 5.06 ERA, 1.388 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts over 26.2 innings. He walked 19 batters over his first 46.1 innings (3.7 per nine). Over his next 15 starts, Mize had 2.88 ERA, 20 walks, and 67 strikeouts over 84.1 innings.
Detroit tapered back his pitch count over the last three months of the season. As a result, Mize faded over his final 10 appearances (4.58 ERA, eight home runs, 11 walks, and 31 strikeouts over 39.1 innings.
Left-handed batters (.256 BAA) drilled for 17 home runs over 262 at-bats. Mize allowed 16 of his 24 home runs on the road.
His AFB (94.1) was better than the league average. He offered four pitches of value (four-seamer – .223, slider – .188 BAA, split-finger – .203 BAA, and curveball – .129 BAA). Batters crushed his sinker (.325 with eight home runs over 148 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Mize has the foundation in pitches and command to offer ace upside, but he can’t reach that ceiling without more strikeouts and improved against lefties. His command projects to be elite. His next step of controlling the damage in home runs allowed. His ADP (256) is high enough where there is value in his arm. His next push should be to 180 innings. Mize is on a path for a 3.25 ERA, 1.100 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts. His jump of 122 innings may invite an injury.
SP Tarik Skubal
In the minors, Skubal (9th round pick in 2018) didn’t match the pedigree of the top two arms (Casey Mize and Matt Manning) in the Tigers’ system in draft value (first and ninth overall), but he finished with a better year in 2019 (2.42 ERA and 179 strikeouts over 122.2 innings). Skubal had a 2.11 ERA and 212 strikeouts over 145 innings in the minors. His rise to stardom came via growth in his command (walk rate – 2.5) and an electric strikeout rate (13.2).
In his first stint in the majors in 2020, Skubal went 1-4 with 5.63 ERA, 1.219 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts over 32 innings. Home runs (2.5 per nine) were his Achilles heel. Last season, he drilled fantasy teams again over his first eight starts (0-6 with 5.73 ERA, 1.576 WHIP, and 11 home runs over 33 innings.
The light bulb clicked on May 19th (two runs over five innings with nine strikeouts), leading to a much-improved run over eight starts (2.82 ERA, .216 BAA, and 63 strikeouts over 44.2 innings). More importantly, Skubal only served up five home runs over this span. Over the final three months of the season, he had four disaster games (21 runs, 31 baserunners, and nine home runs allowed over 18.1 innings) and seven excellent appearances (five runs and 25 baserunners over 35.2 innings with 38 strikeouts).
Skubal averaged 94.5 MPH with his fastball. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.203 BAA) and changeup (.274 BAA). He added a sinker (.232 BAA), but his four-seam fastball (.280 BAA) led to 22 home runs over 250 at-bats.
Over his 181.1 innings in the majors, Skubal surrendered 44 home runs (43 to right-handed batters). His arm needs to improve against lefties (.264 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Skubal needs to locate his fastball better in and out of the strike zone. There will be off nights mixed in with flashes of brilliance. His ADP (189) puts him in a breakout range. If he allowed one home run per nine innings last year, his ERA would have been 3.25. Skubal checks the command and strikeout boxes, so there is a ray of hope that he becomes elite this season.
SP Eduardo Rodriguez
Rodriguez stayed healthy for the whole season for the first time in his career in 2019, helping him to set career highs in wins (19), innings pitched (203.1), and strikeouts (213). Even with success, he still has plenty of work to do to be considered a top arm in the majors. He led the American League in walks (75) with a fantasy-killing WHIP (1.328).
After missing 2020 due to a battle with a heart condition, Rodriguez made 31 starts last season. The Red Sox only allowed him to throw over 100 pitches in four games, leading to him averaging just over five innings per start.
His season started with four wins with a 3.52 ERA and 21 strikeouts over 23 innings. Over the next 16 games, Rodriguez crushed fantasy teams (6.22 ERA, 1.578 WHIP, and .303 BAA over 76.2 innings with 95 strikeouts). He tried to save his season over his final 58 innings (3.26 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts).
His average fastball (92.8) was the lowest of his career. His only pitch with a low batting average was his slider (.232 BAA), but Rodriguez threw it only 8.1 percent of the time. Right-handed batters hit .282 with 14 home runs over 490 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
Over his previous 93 starts, he went 45-19 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.331 WHIP, and 544 strikeouts over 490.2 innings. Fantasy managers will gravitate to his improved walk rate (2.7) and strikeout rate (10.6), but the critical indicator in the state of his game is his WHIP. Based on his ADP (153), I will stay clear of Rodriguez this season. A change to the AL Central should help his cause, but there is too much noise in his profile to be an impactful arm.
SP Matt Manning
The Tigers drafted Manning with the ninth overall pick in the 2016 June MLB Amateur Draft. Before last season, his stuff progressively got better with each year of experience in the minors.
In 2019, he made 24 starts at AA, leading to an 11-5 record with a 2.56 ERA and 148 strikeouts over 133.2 innings. Manning finished with the best walk rate (2.6) of his career, but his strikeout rate (10.0) came in lower than his career average (11.0).
Over four seasons in the minors, he has a 3.49 ERA and 446 strikeouts over 364 innings.
Despite struggling at AAA over seven starts (8.07 ERA, 1.546 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over seven starts, the Tigers decided to give Manning his development time in the majors in 2021. He allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of his 18 games, but four disaster games (29 runs, 39 baserunners, and five home runs over 14.2 innings) led to a disappointing ERA (5.80) and WHIP (1.512).
His lack of confidence led to a poor strikeout rate (6.0) and a sharp decline in his strikeout rate (3.5).
Manning had about a league-average fastball (94.7 MPH). He threw a four-seam fastball (.250 BAA), sinker (.299 BAA), changeup (.293 BAA), slider (.365 BAA), and curveball (.171 BAA). Right-handed batters hit .301 with five home runs over 186 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
At first glance, fantasy managers should run and hide when considering adding Manning to their 2022 roster. He comes to the majors with pedigree, and Detroit saw enough in his game to wheel him out every fifth day last season. Unfortunately, his ADP (514) puts him in the wait-and-see mode for fantasy managers. I expect improvement, but Manning has too much disaster risk at this point in his career—A player to watch in spring training for sure.
SP Tyler Alexander
The Tigers gave Alexander 13 starts last season after the All-Star break, leading to a progression in his success (3.51 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, .246 BAA, and 51 strikeouts over 66.2 innings). However, he struggled out of their bullpen over the first half of the year (4.31 ERA and 1.361 WHIP over 39.2 innings).
Over five seasons in the minors, Alexander went 27-37 with a 3.99 ERA and 461 strikeouts over 550 innings. His walk rate (1.5) was elite, but he only struck out 7.5 batters per nine innings.
Alexander struggled with righties (.272 with 14 home runs over 327 at-bats). His success against left-handed batters (.193 BAA) points to a specialty role in the bullpen.
His average fastball (90.7) is below-par while offering a cutter (.225 BAA) and slider (.103 BAA) of value.
Fantasy Outlook
I view Alexander as only a spot starter and placeholder for the Tigers. I expect Detroit to add another veteran arm after the lockout. Therefore, he should not be drafted in any fantasy format.
SP Joey Wentz
In 2017 at age 19, Wentz breezed through A-ball over 26 starts. He went 8-3 with a 2.60 ERA and 152 strikeouts over 131.2 innings. The following season at High A, Wentz had success in ERA (2.28), but he lost his strikeout ability (7.1 per nine) while also battling an oblique injury.
Over his last two years, his arm failed to make an impact while having TJ surgery in March of 2020. He went 0-7 in 2021 between High A and AA with a 4.50 ERA and 82 strikeouts over 72 innings. His downfall was a higher walk rate (5.1).
Fantasy Outlook
Wentz has yet to pitch at AAA, but he should be improved with another year removed from his TJ surgery. His fastball tends to sit in the low-90s. In addition, Wentz has two secondary pitches (curveball and changeup) with major league upside. A trip to Detroit him to throw more strikes.
SP Reese Olson
The Brewers took a flier on Olson out of high school in the 13th round in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over his first two seasons at rookie ball and Single-A, he went 4-9 with a 4.71 ERA and 90 strikeouts over 105 innings.
Between High A and AA in 2021, his arm showed growth (8-5 ERA and 114 strikeouts over 104.2 innings, highlighted by his higher strikeout rate (9.8).
Olson has a fastball that can reach the mid-90s. His changeup continues to develop while also offering a slider and changeup. He’ll need to clean up his command and mechanics before making a run at the majors.
RP Gregory Soto
Soto's transition from a starter to a reliever worked well over the past two seasons despite still having a high walk rate (5.7). In his first year, with a chance to close games, he converted 18 of his 19 save tries. Soto finished with strength in his ERA (3.39) and strikeout rate (10.7).
He issued 30 of his 40 walks and all seven home runs to right-handed batters, but Soto held them to a .205 batting average. Even with 11 saves after the All-Star break, his arm had many down days based on his ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.301) over 27.2 innings.
His average fastball (98.4) was electric in velocity. Most of his walks (28) came via his sinker. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.128 BAA) and low usage four-seamer (.063 BAA).
Over his seven years in the minors, Soto went 31-26 with a 3.53 ERA and 521 strikeouts over 476.1 innings. Of his 116 appearances, 98 games came as a starter.
Fantasy Outlook
With an ADP of 203 in mid-January in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, Soto looks to be a tweener pick. However, he has the arsenal to close all season if his command improves. In addition, the Tigers should play matchups with him again this year. His SIscore (-2.19) ranked 81st for pitchers in 2021. Without a doubt, he will be a drag in the WHIP category. Soto is more of a coin flip than a target at his current price point.
The Tigers gave Fulmer a chance to start over his first eight games, but he pitched his way to the bullpen (4.09 ERA, .233 BAA, and 20 strikeouts over 21.2 innings. Over the next month, his arm shined in relief (two runs over 14.1 innings with 16 strikeouts and four saves). Fulmer tripped over four games (11.25 ERA over four innings) over the second half of June, which ended with him going on the injured list for a month with a neck issue.
Over his final 27 games, he converted eight of his 10 save opportunities with a 1.52 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 29.2 innings. While picking up six saves, Fulmer didn't allow a run over his last 11 appearances.
His AFB (95.6) fell in line with his career path. Fulmer had success with his slider (.231 BAA) and four-seam fastball (.194 BAA). However, to reach a higher ceiling, he needs to improve the value of his sinker (.299 BAA) and changeup (.296 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Due to an elbow issue, Fulmer has an upside arm that derailed for three seasons. I’m a bit surprised by his early ADP (353) in the NFBC, as his overall skill set ranks better to close for the Tigers. Fulmer would be a strong buy at his current price, but I expect his stock to rise in March.
RP Jose Cisnero
Cisnero came through the Astros’ system as a starter. After struggling eight seasons (4.22 ERA and 621 strikeouts over 563.1 innings), he made some headway as a reliever in the Tigers’ bullpen.
Over the past two years, Cisnero posted a 3.45 ERA and 96 strikeouts over 91.1 innings while picking up four saves. However, he continues to have a high walk rate (4.5) while having more risk against lefties (.260 BAA).
His average fastball (96.9) was a career-high and well above his early days as a starter. Cisnero relies on his four-seamer (.220 BAA) and sinker (.125 BAA). Last year, he lacked an off-speed pitch (slider – .258 BAA) and changeup (.412 BAA) to get batters out consistently.
Fantasy Outlook
At times, Cisnero looks to have a chance to close by his stats, but his lack of command and questionable secondary stuff puts him firmly in a setup role.
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