Russell Wilson to the Broncos: Blockbuster Trade Has Fantasy, Betting Implications

Denver's Super Bowl odds get a jump with the former Seahawks QB taking the reins.

In the first blockbuster trade of the offseason, the Seattle Seahawks have agreed to deal Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Broncos will get Wilson and a fourth-round pick in exchange for Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick.

It’s a major haul for the Seahawks, and the move  has major fantasy implications.

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Let’s start things off in Denver, where the Broncos will now have the veteran quarterback they’ve been looking for since the retirement of Peyton Manning who could potentially lead them to the Super Bowl. Wilson‘s presence in Denver’s offense means an obvious upgrade for their pass catchers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, though it’ll still be a crowded group that also includes KJ Hamler and Tim Patrick. I like Jeudy as a low No. 2 wideout while Sutton is more of a flex starter in most PPR formats.

The stock of Albert Okwuegbunam will also rise, as he’ll take over as the Broncos No. 1 tight end in Fant’s absence. He’ll now be selected late in all 2022 fantasy drafts.

The move should mean greater things for Javonte Williams, too, as Wilson will help keep defenses honest. Williams could be worth a first-round fantasy pick if the Broncos don’t retain Melvin Gordon (who is very close to Wilson, by the way).

As for Wilson, he’ll see a slight rise in value in the offense of new coach Nathaniel Hackett. I’m not sure he’ll be a top five fantasy quarterback at what is a super talented position at the top, but Hackett should certainly let Russ cook after this trade!

In Seattle, the Seahawks could start Lock under center in 2022. If that is in fact the case (my guess is he will have serious competition during training camp), that’s an obvious downgrade from Wilson at the position. It also hurts the stock of Seattle’s main fantasy pass catchers, most notably wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

In fact, I’d now rank Metcalf as more of a low-end No. 2 fantasy wideout while the productive but inconsistent Lockett will fall into the No. 3 wideout or flex conversation.

Fant should remain in the low-end No. 1 tight end mix because of his rapport with Lock (again, assuming he's the starter), but he’ll still be the third option in the passing game at best. This also means the Seahawks likely won’t be re-signing Gerald Everett.

Fantasy fans could also see more of Chris Carson (neck surgery) and the Seattle rushing attack in 2022. Dealing Wilson could also push the Seahawks to re-sign Rashaad Penny, who was marvelous at the end of last season but is slated to be a free agent. In that scenario, a committee could emerge that would limit the value of both players.

Trade Effects Broncos’ Odds

While the news of Aaron Rodgers staying with the Packers caused a reaction from the oddsmakers, Wilson-to-the-Broncos had even bigger reverberations.

"After re-signing Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packer's jumped from +1400 to +1000," said SI senior betting analyst Jen Piacenti. "Now with the news that Russell Wilson is moving to Denver, Denver has jumped from its opening at +2000 to +1400. Wilson will have a a bunch of talented weapons at his disposal, including sophomore RB Javonte Williams alongside Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick. The Broncos are pushing the chips all-in with their young team."

Piacenti noted that Denver is now tied for sixth with the 49ers in SI Sportsbook's odds to win the Super Bowl. They passed the Cowboys, who are at +1600.