Rafael Devers, Jose Ramirez Leading Third Basemen by Fantasy ADP

Breaking down third basemen based on their average draft position to find value and opportunity.

The third base position had a regression in production in 2021, leading to only nine batters finishing with more than 500 at-bats. Only Jose Ramirez (111) and Rafael Devers (101) led the way in runs. In addition, four players hit 30 home runs or more, with three of those hitters driving in more than 100 runs. Overall, third base appears to lack depth this draft season.

The stats highlighted by the yellow line show the average results (.261 with 85 runs, 28 home runs, 87 RBI, and five steals over 542 at-bats) for the top 12 third basemen last year.

Note: Players with multiple position eligibility will impact the top 12 ratings for each position. I sorted this grouping by position, then at-bats, followed by home runs.

Here’s a look at the top 12 third basemen in 2022 by NFBC ADPs in early March:

A fantasy manager can make a case to own any of the top 12 third basemen when adding in their ADP and potential team structure.

Ramirez brings a five-tool foundation to a fantasy team while coming off the board as a top-three pick in many fantasy drafts after the injury to Fernando Tatis. His ability to steal bases from third base separates him from most of the player pool at his position. He continues to hit a ton of fly balls, leading to some easy outs and limiting his ceiling in batting average.

Twice over the previous three seasons, Devers has been a beast at the plate. His ceiling in power continues to rise. His swing and hard-hit rate put him on a path to post an edge batting average. Devers projects to be a foundation player to a fantasy team while offering only a handful of steals.

The loss of Tatis lowers Manny Machado’s RBI chances. However, his floor in power remains high while chipping in with double-digit steals. Over his last seven years, Machado only missed 25 games, helping his counting stats.

The Royals expect to give Adalberto Mondesi starting at-bats at shortstop, giving him a two-position qualification early in the season. His impact value in steals creates a massive edge, but he needs to stay healthy for a more significant portion of the year. Mondesi also adds power, but his swing-and-miss approach invites batting average risk.

Alex Bregman and Anthony Rendon fall into the bounce-back category. Each player has plenty of talent around them in batting average. However, Bregman offers a higher ceiling in power while Rendon brings the better foundation in batting average. The difference in their ADP (22 picks) favors Rendon depending on team structure.

The wild card of the top 12 third baseman is Ke’Bryan Hayes. He offers speed from the position with a favorable hard-hit rate. His next step is adding more loft to his swing. The trick is not overvaluing him when given a choice between him and a proven player.

Nolan Arenado has an excellent resume in home runs and RBI while offering a low strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the escape from Colorado led to a dull finish in batting average. Arenado rarely misses games, and I expect him to rebound in batting average this year.

The change in ballparks for Kris Bryant may unlock his underachieving power stats since 2016 (39 home runs and 102 RBI). The Rockies should hit him third or fourth in the batting order, setting the stage for a career-high in RBIs and batting average. Bryant even found his wheels in 2021 (10 steals).

For anyone cheating third base in 2022, I only see one player I like with a breakout upside. The player pool dries up after 18 third base options, leading to more teams willing to double up at first base to land their best corner infield option.

Eugenio Suarez hits many fly balls, creating plenty of home runs. However, the move to Seattle is a downgrade in ballpark. This season, he must regain some of his lost batting average to lower his risk to a fantasy team.

The trade for Matt Chapman for the Blue Jays should be a win in team scoring and home ballpark. He brings plenty of power while taking his share of walks. Toronto has depth in their starting lineup, pushing Chapman to a weaker slot in runs scored. He won’t help in batting average.

Cavan Biggio fell out of fantasy favor after battling injuries last season. However, he still offers an elite walk rate with an intriguing floor in power and speed. Unfortunately, a date with the eighth slot in the batting order will lower his counting stats.

My breakout hitter this year is Alec Bohm. No one fights for him in drafts (ADP – 303) due to his regression in 2021 and his ground ball swing path. The key to his success is a push to second in the batting order with a jump in batting average and power.

The Twins cleared a spot in their starting lineup at third base, which may signal they plan to ride Jose Miranda in 2022. Last season, his bat was sensational at AA and AAA, leading to 97 runs, 30 home runs, 94 RBI, and four steals over 535 at-bats. Miranda finished with a .344 batting average while also having a low strikeout rate (12.5). However, over four seasons in the minors, his previous resume painted a much weaker picture. 

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