NFL Draft: Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott Among Many Successful First-Round Rookie Running Backs

Of 19 running backs taken in the first round since 2010, 11 had top-10 fantasy finishes in their first season.

There was a time when the running back position was considered highly valuable in the world of pro football. In the 1970s-1980s, a running back was the No. 1 overall selection in the NFL draft four times in a five-year stretch. Ricky Bell went first to the Buccaneers in 1977 (Tony Dorsett went second to the Cowboys), the Oilers took Earl Campbell first in 1978, Billy Sims went first in the 1980 draft to the Lions, and George Rogers went to the Saints atop the 1981 draft (Freeman McNeil went third overall to the Jets).

MORE: Fantasy Success of First-Round Rookie Quarterbacks

Nowadays, a running back going first overall is about as rare as a happy Jets fan.

The last time a runner went No. 1 in the NFL draft was 1995, when the Bengals took Ki-Jana Carter. If you remember how that worked out (or didn't), you might know why this sort of thing doesn't happen anymore. It's gotten worse in recent years too. Forget about running backs not being first overall selections anymore. We've had two drafts in the last nine years where a runner wasn’t even picked in the entire first round.

This all seems odd because running backs are considered so valuable in fantasy football yet so replaceable in the eyes of many NFL teams. Regardless, let’s take a walk down memory lane and reminisce on all of the first-round backs since 2010, how they fared as rookies and how many become studs in the world of fantasy football.

2021

Najee Harris and Travis Etienne were the lone first-round running backs from a season ago. Harris, who went No. 24 to the Steelers, was better than advertised with a strong RB3 finish. The former Alabama standout will be a first-round pick in most 2022 drafts. Etienne was injured in the preseason and didn’t see a regular-season snap.

2020

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the lone first-round running back in the 2020 draft. It came as a surprise, too, as most draft pundits predicted D'Andre Swift or Jonathan Taylor to come off the board first at the position. Regardless, CEH was well on his way to putting up a great season before the Chiefs added Le'Veon Bell as a free agent. An injury later in the year further deflated Edwards-Helaire’s value, leaving him as a disappointment based on the price tag. After two pro seasons, he’s still failed to meet expectations.

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2019

Josh Jacobs was the lone first-round running back, coming off the board at No. 24 overall to the Raiders. He rushed for over 1,100 yards and scored seven touchdowns in 13 games as a rookie, finishing 21st in points. He was 16th on a points-per-game basis, however. Jacobs took a big leap forward as an NFL sophomore, finishing eighth in points. He's been a good fantasy running back but certainly not an elite player.

2018

Saquon Barkley was the second overall pick of the Giants in 2018, and he sure showed why he was thought of so highly. He finished first in fantasy points among running backs, and only Eric Dickerson has had more points among rookie runners in the Super Bowl era. What’s more, his 91 catches are a rookie record. Injuries have been an issue in recent seasons, however. Rashaad Penny, a surprising first-round pick (No. 27 overall), finished as the RB66 as a rookie, and his best finish came last season as the RB42. Penny hasn’t played in more than 10 games since 2019. Sony Michel went at No. 31 to the Patriots and finished as the RB35 as a rookie. He’s failed to produce big numbers, ranking no higher than 31st among running backs in his first four seasons.

2017

Leonard Fournette was the fourth overall pick of the Jaguars in 2017, while Christian McCaffrey went four picks later to the Panthers. Both paid immediate dividends, as Fournette was the RB9 despite missing three games. His 18 points-per-game average was seventh at the position. CMC ranked tenth, producing 80 catches and 1,086 yards.

After missing eight games in 2018, Fournette fashioned an RB7 finish in 2019 on the strength of a career-best 76 catches. While he wasn’t great in 2020, he rebounded to produce a career-best 18.3 fantasy points per game this past season. McCaffrey was the top running back in fantasy football in 2019, but he has missed all but 10 games over the last two years due to injuries and comes with plenty of first-round risk.

2016

The fourth overall pick of the Cowboys in 2016, Ezekiel Elliott came right out and made a huge fantasy impact. His 325.4 points were good enough to finish second as a rookie, and it ranks fifth all-time among first-year runners. He missed six games the following season, but he was third among backs in points per game average. Zeke was the RB5 in 2018 and RB3 in 2019 before falling to RB9 in 2020. He was the RB7 this past year, but Elliott was average at best in the second half due to a bum knee. Furthermore, he’s falling into the third round of early 2022 drafts due to his recently declining numbers.

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2015

Todd Gurley was the tenth overall pick of the St. Louis Rams, while Melvin Gordon went No. 15 to the San Diego Chargers. Gurley finished ninth in points as a rookie despite playing just 13 games, while Gordon failed to score a single touchdown and ranked as the RB48. Both runners went on to much greater things, of course, as Gurley was considered the top back in fantasy in 2017-2018 before knee issues flared up and cost him both playing time and draft value. Gordon followed up his poor rookie campaign with spectacular finishes of RB7, RB5 and RB8 before leaving the Bolts for the Broncos.

2014

The first runner off the board in the 2014 NFL Draft was Bishop Sankey, who went in the second round (No. 54 overall) to the Titans. Jeremy Hill went next to the Bengals, and Carlos Hyde went to the 49ers two picks later. None of the trio excelled in the NFL.

2013

No runners were picked in the first round of the 2013 draft, as the first back taken was Giovani Bernard in Round 2 (No. 37 overall). The second back taken was Le’Veon Bell (No. 48), who turned into a fantasy superstar during his time with the Steelers.

2012

Trent Richardson was the biggest name among running backs in the 2012 class, and it looked like he'd be worth the third overall pick after finishing his rookie season as the RB7. It all went downhill from there, though, as Richardson was traded from the Browns to the Colts. He never rushed for more than 519 yards in Indianapolis and was out of the NFL after 2014. Doug Martin, the 31st overall pick of the Buccaneers, was better than Richardson as a rookie, finishing second in points behind Adrian Peterson. He missed 15 games over the next two seasons but came back with an RB4 finish in 2015. He was mostly inconsistent as a fantasy option, though. David Wilson, who was pick No. 32, never rushed for more than 358 yards in a single season in the pros and had his career cut short with a neck injury.

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

2011

Mark Ingram was the lone running back selected in the first round of the 2011 draft, and it took some time for him to make a significant fantasy impact. In fact, he was the RB47 as a rookie, RB40 as an NFL sophomore, and RB63 while missing five games for the Saints in Year 3. He produced three 1,000-yard seasons in his next six years and emerged into a more reliable fantasy player up until this final season with the Ravens.

2010

C.J. Spiller (No. 9), Ryan Mathews (No. 12) and Jahvid Best (No. 30) were the top backs in the 2010 NFL Draft, but none of them became fantasy stars. Mathews was the best of the bunch as rookies with an RB7 finish, while Spiller was RB27 and Best was worst at RB41. Spiller had a breakout 2011 campaign with an RB6 finish, but it was the only season he lived up to his actual NFL draft hype. As for Best, he missed 10 games in Year 2 in Detroit and never again made an impact for the Lions or fantasy footballers.

Breakdown

Since 2010, 19 running backs have been drafted in the first round. Eleven of them (58%) finished in the top 10 in fantasy points as rookies. The next best finishers were Jacobs (RB21) and Edwards-Helaire (RB22), while the remaining five didn't have much value during their respective rookie campaigns. Still, 13 of 19 first-rounders were at least low-end No. 2 fantasy running backs based on their final season totals.

Digging a little deeper and leaving out the 2021 first-rounders (Harris, Etienne), we've seen five running backs reach elite status at some point in their careers. That includes Gurley, Gordon, Elliott, McCaffrey and Barkley. Fournette has put up high-end totals three times in five seasons, and Ingram produced well with the Saints and Ravens (2016-2019). Jacobs had an RB8 finish in his second season and was the RB12 in 2021.

In all, Penny, Michel, Wilson and Best were mostly duds at the NFL level among first-round running backs in the last 11 years. Richardson and Spiller didn’t meet expectations, but each of them did have at least one top-10 fantasy season.

So, will there be a first-round running back in the 2022 NFL Draft? The answer is no if you look at the long list of mock drafts. In fact, only Iowa State’s Breece Hall has been mentioned as a potential first-rounder, and he's projected as a late first-rounder at best. If a player does have their name called in Round 1, the trend of running backs being selected highly and finding success seems to be positive for fantasy managers.

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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!