Los Angeles Chargers 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Mike Williams Steps It Up

Scoring shouldn’t be a problem for this high-powered offense.

Shawn Childs | Jun 7, 2022

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Los Angeles Chargers

Last year the Los Angeles Chargers had the best quarterback (Justin Herbert) and running back (Austin Ekeler) in the AFC West. Both players finished second overall in fantasy scoring at their positions, increasing excitement for 2022. One could argue that Herbert (9,886 combined yards with 77 touchdowns) had been a better quarterback than Patrick Mahomes (9,618 combined yards with 80 touchdowns in 2018-19) over his first two seasons. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ranked 11th and 13th in wide receiver scoring. Los Angeles has developing talent at WR3 and WR4 while adding Gerald Everett at tight end. The Chargers will score plenty of points this season, but the winner of the wild West division will fall to which team finishes with the best defensive play.

Offense

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert – click here for fantasy projections

Other Options: Chase Daniel, Easton Stick, Brandon Peters

Running Backs
The Chargers’ running backs gained 2,413 combined yards with 24 touchdowns and 101 catches. They had growth in yards per rush (4.3), but their pass-catching opportunity (101/879/8) had regression for the second season.

Austin Ekeler – click here for fantasy projections

Isaiah Spiller
Over three seasons in college, Spiller had almost the same role (203, 208, 204 touches). He rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2020 (188/1,036/9) and 2021 (179/1,011/6) while having the most success in scoring as a freshman (174/946/10). Spiller finished his time at Texas A&M with 74 catches for 585 yards and one score. Last season he rushed for over 100 yards in six matchups.

Spiller runs with a leggy motion that tends to lead to him gearing down in space rather than sticking his foot in the ground and bursting out of a cut. With a run of steam, he can make defenders miss with change of direction moves. Texas A&M used him on many inside runs, but his wins weren’t driven by power. His next step is improving his pass blocking despite having a feel on which lanes to pick up an oncoming blitzer.

Fantasy outlook: Based on his ADP (75) in April in the NFFC, fantasy drafters hoped Spiller would have landed on a team with a better chance to start. He is the 35th running back drafted in fantasy leagues in early June with an ADP of 98. His pass-catching helps his fantasy floor, but Spiller doesn’t project to be a third-down back out of the gate. Instead, he will be in a split role on early downs with some value catches while being the top handcuff for Austin Ekeler.

Larry Rountree
Over four seasons at Missouri, Rountree gained 4,009 combined yards with 40 touches and 47 catches on 793 touches. His highlight year came in 2018 (225/1,216/11 and 14 catches for 62 yards). He gained only 87 yards and one score on 36 rushes as a freshman.

Rountree has a step-and-go feel while offering the ability to make defenders miss in space. However, his lack of patience leads to him running into too many dead ends. Roundtree won’t provide upside in the passing game.

He projects as an early-down runner with a lot to prove in his sophomore season.

Other Options: Joshua Kelley, Leddie Brown, Kevin Marks

Wide Receivers
Under the guidance of Hebert, the Chargers’ wideouts scored 41 times over the past two seasons. Their wide receivers set three-year highs in catches (252), receiving yards (3,171) and targets (391). The only negative was a second season of regression in yards per catch (12.6).

Keenan Allen – click here for fantasy projections

Mike Williams
Herbert unlocked Williams’s ceiling in 2021, but he did most of his damage in four of his first five starts (8/82/1, 7/91/1, 7122/2, 8/165/2). Over his next 11 starts, he posted three other playable games (5/97/1, 5/110, 9/119/1). Williams set career-highs in catches (76), receiving yards (1,146) and targets (129). Over the first 56 games of his career, he averaged only 4.7 targets compared to 8.1 last season. Williams came to the NFL in 2017 as the seventh player selected in the first round. He brings upside in scoring and big-play ability (16.1 yards per catch).

Fantasy outlook: With one top-tier season on his five-year resume, Williams isn’t a player many fantasy drafters have fought for in the early draft season in the NFFC (ADP – 61 as the 24th wideout). His overall skill set supports his growth, and I expect Williams to push his overall stats higher in 2022. My bar will be 80 catches for 1,200 yards with double-digit scores.

Joshua Palmer
Palmer has flashes of upside, but his production has been empty in too many games. His route running continues to develop with a chain-mover feel. Palmer brings good hands with the talent to set up defenders. His challenge comes off the line in press coverage and his long speed.

Over four seasons at Tennessee, he caught 99 of his 196 targets for 1,514 yards and seven touchdowns. In his first year with the Chargers, Palmer gave Los Angeles good snaps off the bench (33/353/4 on 49 targets). His best output came in Weeks 14 (5/66/1), 16 (5/43/1) and 18 (4/45/1).

Fantasy outlook: I view Palmer as a handcuff to Allen this season. He should open the year as the Chargers’ WR3 with a flier ADP (179) in the NFFC in early June.

Jalen Guyton
Over the past two years with the Chargers, Guyton flashed in five games (1/72/1, 2/84/1, 4/91, 4/90/1, 3/87/1). He has 59 catches for 959 yards and six touchdowns on 103 targets in his 32 games.

Over two seasons at North Texas, Guyton caught 103 of his 176 targets for 1,580 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Fantasy outlook: In most weeks, Guyton brings minimal fantasy value. His ability to test a defense deep gives him a higher ceiling than his overall targets (3.2 per game).

Other Options: DeAndre Carter, Jason Moore, Joe Reed

Tight Ends
The Chargers’ tight ends finished with a rise in catches (90), receiving yards (962) and targets (137) in each of the two seasons with Herbert starting. Despite growth, Los Angeles still lacks a franchise tight end.

Gerald Everett
After four dull seasons with the Rams (16/244/2, 33/320/3, 37/408/2, 41/417/1), Everett set career-highs in all areas in his first year with Seattle (48/478/4 on 63 targets). He missed two games early in the season with COVID-19. Over the past two years, his catch rate (71.2) has invited more chances after signing with the Chargers.

Fantasy outlook: Los Angeles will rotate in three tight ends this year, while Everett should emerge as this top receiving option. In the NFFC, he projects as a backend TE2 with a chance to catch 50 passes for 500 yards and five touchdowns.

Tre McKitty
McKitty struggles to create separation out of his breaks while owning a below-par skill set in blocking. With a free release downfield, his game should test a defense at the third level with a chance to win with legs after the catch. To reach a higher ceiling, McKitty needs to get stronger and work on his route running.

In his rookie season, he caught only six passes for 45 yards.

Other options: Donald Parham, Hunter Kampmoyer

Kicker

Dustin Hopkins
Between kicking for Washington and Los Angeles in 2021, Hopkins made 30 of 34 field-goal tries (88.2%). His leg had been limited from 50 yards or more (15-for-30) in his career over seven seasons. He has eight missed extra-point tries in 124 chances.

Fantasy outlook: Hopkins isn’t a lock to win the Chargers’ kicking job. Last year, Los Angeles scored 58 touchdowns while creating only 27 field-goal opportunities. Possible matchup value.

Coaching
Brandon Staley has been a fast mover in the coaching ranks. His first pro job came in 2017 for the Bears as a linebacking coach. Staley had success in 2020 running the Rams’ defense, which paved the way for his promotion. He has five years of coaching experience with a 9-8 record.

Los Angeles brought in Joe Lombardi to run the offense in 2021. He’s been coaching in the NFL since 2006, with most of his time coming in the Saints’ system. The Lions gave him an offensive coordinator job in 2014 and 2015 (only seven games before getting fired). Lombardi coached in New Orleans in 2009 when they won the Super Bowl.

The Chargers jumped to fourth in offensive yards and fifth in points scored (474 – 90 more than 2020).

Renaldo Hill returns as the Chargers’ defensive coordinator. He played in the NFL from 2001-10 before hanging up his cleats for a coaching job. From 2018-20, Hill was a defensive backs coach for the Dolphins and Broncos.

For the third year in a row, Los Angeles ranked higher in yards allowed (29th) than in points allowed (459 – 23rd). Their defense regressed in each of the past four years on the scoreboard.

Free Agency
Los Angeles' big free-agent move in the offseason was the signing of CB J.C. Jackson for $82 million. They also brought in DT Austin Johnson, LB Kyle Van Noy, CB Bryce Callahan and DE Morgan Fox for depth in their defense. LB Uchenna Nwosu, DT Justin Jones, LB Kyzir White and LB Kyler Fackrell signed with other teams. The only improvement to the offensive side of the ball was the addition of TE Gerald Everett.

In the trade market, the Chargers acquired LB Khalil Mack from the Bears for second (2022) and sixth (2023) round draft picks.

Draft
The Chargers selected a pair of offensive linemen (Zion Johnson – 1.17 and Jamaree Salyer – 6.16) with two of their first five picks in the 2022 NFL draft. In addition, they added four players to their defense – S J.T. Woods (3.15), DT Otito Ogbonnia (5.17), CB Ja’Sir Taylor (6.36) and CB Deane Leonard (7.15). Los Angeles also invested in RB Isaiah Spiller (4.18) and FB Zander Horvath (7.39).

Offensive Line
The Chargers dipped to 21st in the NFL in rushing yards (1,834) while gaining 4.3 yards per carry. They scored 18 rushing touchdowns with only seven runs over 20 yards. Los Angeles averaged 24.9 rushes per game (22nd).

L.A. climbed to second in the NFL in passing yards (5,014). Their offensive line allowed 31 sacks. The Chargers finished with 38 passing touchdowns and 15 interceptions, with receivers gaining over 20 yards on 53 plays.

LT Rashawn Slater hit the ground running in his first season after getting drafted 13th overall in 2021. He excelled in all areas. C Corey Linsley proved to be a wise investment by the Chargers, signing last year after a long successful career with the Packers. His run and pass blocking ranked highly over the past two seasons. When adding another top player (G Zion Johnson) in this year’s draft, Los Angeles has three high upside players and one neutral option on their offensive line. They look to be one player away from a top-five line in the NFL.

Defense
Los Angeles fell to 30th in rushing yards allowed (2,361) with 22 rushing touchdowns and 13 runs over 20 yards. The Chargers gave up 4.6 yards per carry.

The Chargers slipped to 12th in passing yards allowed (3,761) with 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Their defense recorded 35 sacks while allowing 53 completions over 20 yards.

The combination of DE Joey Bosa and LB Khalil Mack has 130.5 sacks over their previous 180 games. Closing down the passing window is a must for the Chargers’ defense. They have a top-tier safety (Derwin James), and J.C. Jackson improves the cornerback position. Adding in LB Kenneth Murray and DE Jerry Tillery, Los Angeles has the foundation of a much better defense. This year, I expect the Chargers to be a top 10 fantasy defense with a much higher ceiling if a couple of their young players reach their potential.

Published Jun 7, 2022

SHAWN CHILDS