Ezekiel Elliott 2022 Fantasy Projections: Beginning of the End or New Beginning?

Usage, age and wear-and-tear are showing—so can Elliott rebound?

When reviewing Elliott’s final stats in 2021, he continued to have a high floor in catches (47) and touchdowns (12). On the downside, he gained short yards per catch for the second straight season (6.5 and 6.1). Elliott had 580 touches over the past two seasons, but only seven of those plays resulted in 20+ yards. From Week 8 to Week 17, over 10 starts, he averaged only 3.4 yards per carry and 39.4 rushing yards per game. Dallas gave him 14.7 touches per week over this span. His best results running the ball came over three home starts early in the year (17/95/2, 20/143/1, and 21/110/1). Over his last seven games, the Cowboys gave him 23 targets (including the playoffs), leading to 10 catches for 59 yards and one score.

Fantasy outlook: The trick when evaluating his 2022 draft value is sifting through last year's actual performance and preseason fantasy hype. Elliott played through a partially torn PCL in 2021 while already having a “best shape of his life” by-line in May per Mike McCarthy (looks great while being clocked at 22 mph). In the early draft season in the NFFC, Elliott has an ADP of 43 as the 21st running back selected. I expect him to see fewer chances in the passing game with about 16 overall touches per start. I’ll set his bar at 1,175 combined yards with eight to 10 touchdowns and 30 catches (about 200.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues). Elliott is young enough to surprise, and he does play in one of the better offenses in the league.