Aaron Rodgers 2022 Fantasy Projections: Production Will Be Down

There’s no doubt Rodgers is an all-time great, but replacing Davante Adams is a tall task.

Over his 206 career starts with the Packers, Aaron Rodgers has a 139-66-1 record with one Super Bowl title (2010). Unfortunately, he lost seven of his last nine games in the postseason. Only once in his 14-year career has Rodgers passed for more than 4,500 yards (4,643 in 2011) or attempted more than 600 passes in a season (610 in 2016). The best part of his resume continues to be touchdown passes (449) and minimal damage in interceptions (93).

Last season Rodgers passed for over 300 yards in four matchups and had nine games with at least three touchdowns. Over his final seven starts, he had 21 scores and no interceptions. However, his value in the run game (33/101/3) regressed in each of the past three years. Rodgers had 91 touchdowns and only nine interceptions over the previous two seasons.

Fantasy outlook: Davante Adams caught 238 passes for 2,927 yards and 29 touchdowns over the last two seasons, 32.2% of Rodgers’ competitions, 34.7% of his passing yards and 34.1% of his passing touchdowns. Green Bay will have regression in yards per pass attempt. Rodgers will find a way to pass for 4,000 yards, but I don’t expect impact touchdowns (about two per game). He ranks 11th at quarterback in the National Fantasy Football Championship in June. I won’t fight for Rodgers on draft day, but I won’t dismiss him if he is discounted as an upside QB2.