2022 Fantasy Football Forecast: Don’t Bank on Michael Thomas

Saints receiver is a long way removed from his 149-catch season.

As the fantasy football draft season begins in earnest, we’ve asked all of SI Fantasy’s writers and editors to weigh in with their top picks in five key categories. Next up: SI Fantasy & SI Betting executive director Bill Enright: 

We are on the brink of NFL Training Camps getting underway and now is an excellent time to start your fantasy football research. What better way to do that than with some traditional sleepers, busts, and rookies plus some more insight on late round quarterbacks to targets and a comeback player that is being overlooked by the rest of your fantasy league. Let’s get to it.

Top Sleeper: Russell Gage, WR, Buccaneers
“Sleeper” – in a world of 24-hour sports TV networks, social media and hundreds of fantasy football websites providing analysis – is perhaps the most overused term in all of fantasy. A “sleeper” doesn’t have to be a relatively unknown player that is in his first or second year in the league. For me, a sleeper is a player drafted after Round 7 that can contribute an average of 10-14 points on a weekly basis. On the safer side he can end up as your flex, RB2 or WR3 but on the eternal optimism side, he ends up as a Top 15 player at his position. Think safe floor, big upside and relatively low price tag. With that in mind, a player that fits that mold is Russell Gage. The 26-year-old veteran signed with Tampa Bay and will start the year as the Buccaneers No. 2 wide receiver with Chris Godwin likely starting the year on the PUP list. But even when Godwin returns, Gage will still have a consistent role in Tampa Bay’s aerial attack. With an ADP around 115 (48th WR), the former Falcons playmaker won’t break your bank in terms of draft equity. Add in the fact the Bucs’ receivers have the second easiest schedule and Gage could be your “steal” of the draft.

Biggest Bust: Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
Whether you call it “bust” or “player to avoid,” this category is reserved for quite simply, a player you don’t want on your team. The reasons may vary: unjustifiable ADP, bad offensive scheme, poor quarterback play, missed games, inability to grasp a new offense. Regardless of the reasoning, you don’t want to waste a valuable draft pick on said player. For me, that player is Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas. The single season reception leader is two years removed from that magical season in which he caught 149 passes. He no longer has Drew Brees throwing him the football and he’s yet to be cleared for action from an injury that happened in 2020. According to the latest Average Draft Position reports, he’s being selected as the 28th receiver, putting him in WR2 territory. That’s just too much of an investment for a player that quite frankly may not really want to play anymore.

Comeback Player: Robert Woods, WR, Titans
A surgically repaired ACL less than nine months ago and a new offense may scare some people away from Robert Woods…I am not one of those people. According to reports, the productive veteran’s rehab is going well and he is on schedule to start in Week 1. Woods left greener pastures in the Rams’ pass-happy offense but finds himself with the Titans, where A.J. Brown is no longer on the roster and the team’s next best pass catcher is a rookie that needs some polishing on his route-running. Woods is being drafted slightly ahead of Treylon Burks, who for dynasty purposes is a much better fantasy pick, but for redraft (ADP WR38), Woods is the receiver to target in Tennessee.

Top Rookie: Alec Pierce, WR, Colts
“Top” may be a bit misleading for my selection in this category as I’m going with Colts rookie wide receiver Alex Pierce. I don’t think Pierce ends up as the “top” rookie receiver this year, but given his ADP as the 83rd receiver off the board, he’s essentially a free pick and one I am targeting in the late rounds of my drafts. Indianapolis made a major upgrade at quarterback by bringing in Matt Ryan but didn’t do much else in free agency to upgrade the receiver position. They did, however, invest a second-round pick in Pierce. Outside of Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis doesn’t have much on the depth chart that would prevent Pierce from making an instant impact, unless of course you buy into the idea of Parris Campbell finally becoming a productive asset (I don’t).

Late-Round QB: Derek Carr, Raiders
It was a tumultuous year for the Raiders in 2021. Head coach Jon Gruden was abruptly fired and wide receiver Henry Ruggs was involved in a tragic car accident that resulted in the death of a 23-year-old woman. Despite those incidents, the Raiders finished with 10 wins and quarterback Derek Carr’s 4,804 passing yards was fifth most in the league. Las Vegas had a fantastic offseason by signing superstar wide receiver Davante Adams and hiring offensive minded Josh McDaniels as head coach. Adams joins an already stellar bunch of playmakers in the Raiders passing game with tight end Darren Waller and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, giving Carr one of the league’s best trio of pass-catchers. Look for his passing touchdowns to crack the 30 mark for what would be just the second time in his career and his yardage should eclipse his career high set in 2021. The nine-year veteran is currently the 104th player being selected and the 14th quarterback according to the latest Average Draft Position reports. Given his stable floor and promising potential to lead what could be one of the league’s best offenses, Carr is my favorite late-round quarterback target.

• PPR Rankings & Auction Values
• Player Stat Projections
• 2022 Deep Sleepers
• Expectations for Second-Year QBs