Updated SI Fantasy Staff Predictions: Top Sleepers, Rookies, Busts

Our experts are fading on Russell Gage and showing more love for Chris Olave.

Before NFL training camps opened, we asked the SI Fantasy staff to make some predictions for the 2022 season. While a lot has happened through the preseason, most of our picks still look solid. But not all of them.

As the start of the season approaches, we gave our experts the chance to change one of their picks in the three key categories – top sleeper, top rookie, and biggest bust. Only one of our experts – Michael Fabiano – opted to stick with his original three.

Interestingly, the most popular sleeper pick in early July was Buccaneers receiver, Russell Gage. That was before Tampa Bay signed veteran wideout Julio Jones. All three of our guys who picked Gage opted to swap him out here. With the updated picks, the only player whose name appears three times is Saints receiver Chris Olave in the top rookie category.

Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports

Considering developments that have taken place the last few weeks, here are the updated predictions:

Michael Fabiano
Top Sleeper: Trey Lance, QB, 49ers
Top Rookie: Breece Hall, RB, Jets
Biggest Bust: Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs

I'm still pretty bullish on Lance as my top breakout/sleeper, even though Jimmy Garoppolo is staying in San Francisco (barring a trade). I'll also continue to ride with Hall as the top fantasy rookie, and my gut still tells me you're going to see some regression from Hill in Miami. I do think Cam Akers is heading to Bustville too, but Hill remains the player I'm worried about most because of his high cost in drafts.

Shawn Childs
Top Sleeper: Amari Rodgers, WR, Packers
Top Rookie: Treylon Burks, WR, Titans
Biggest Bust: James Conner, RB, Cardinals

New Top Rookie: Drake London, WR, Falcons
Despite a lingering injury late in August, London looks poised to be ready in Week 1. His summer reports had him moving up drafts before stalling after his injury. He has the best opportunity at wide receiver in this year's rookie class, and I expect him to hit the ground running. London offers size and scoring ability while expecting to be the number two passing option in the Falcons' offense. His only drawback is the questionable quarterback play in Atlanta. London projects to be backend WR3 in PPR formats while having the talent to soar past expectations.

Jennifer Piacenti
Top Sleeper: Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings
Top Rookie: Treylon Burks, WR, Titans
Biggest Bust: Cordarrrelle Patterson, RB, Falcons

New Biggest Bust: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
Cordarelle Patterson no longer qualifies as a bust pick at his current ADP. In fact, he could end up being a value pick at an ADP of 94. Instead, I am going to pivot to Javonte Williams. Now, to be clear, I love Williams as a player. I just don’t love his ADP. He has tremendous upside, but that upside will likely be capped by the presence of Melvin Gordon, with whom he split carries evenly in 2021. Both Gordon and Williams are expected to be on a “pitch count,” so Williams at the end of Round 1 is too rich for me.

Matt De Lima
Top Sleeper: Russell Gage, WR, Buccaneers
Top Rookie: Christian Watson, WR, Packers
Biggest Bust: Drake London, WR, Falcons

New Top Sleeper: Elijah Moore, WR, Jets
I'm hoping Jets QB Zach Wilson takes a step forward this year when he's eventually healthy again so WR Elijah Moore can eat. Moore is barely being drafted among the top 36 receivers this year, but I think he leaps into the mid-WR2 conversation. And here's a freebie for you in case you didn't get the memo yet: Courtland Sutton >>> Jerry Jeudy.

Frankie Taddeo
Top Sleeper: Allen Lazard, WR, Packers
Top Rookie: Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs
Biggest Bust: Darren Waller, TE, Raiders

New Top Rookie: Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
One of the biggest takeaways from the NFL preseason is the emergence of Texans running back Dameon Pierce. With all the hype surrounding Breece Hall and Isiah Pacheco, Pierce has the clearest path to a full RB1 workload. Hall will have to contend with Michael Carter, while Pacheco will fight for reps with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The former Florida standout, who was being drafted in rounds 11 and 12 in early drafts, has now skyrocketed into the fifth round of high-stakes leagues.

Matt Ehalt

Top Sleeper: Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Broncos
Top Rookie: Chris Olave, WR, Saints
Biggest Bust: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles

New Top Sleeper: Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Bills
There are good reports coming out of Buffalo that Isaiah McKenzie is ready to take a big step forward this year. McKenzie could receive some of those targets that were expected to go to Jamison Crowder. McKenzie showcased his ability toward the end of last year and he could be in position to outperform his ADP. There are certainly opportunities in Buffalo’s offense.

Kyle Wood
Top Sleeper: Russell Gage, WR, Buccaneers
Top Rookie: Chris Olave, WR, Saints
Biggest Bust: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos

New Top Sleeper: Chase Edmonds, RB, Dolphins
For some reason, you can still get Chase Edmonds around the 100th pick in fantasy drafts. He's coming off the board as the RB34 (pick 92). Let me remind you: There are only 32 starting running backs in the NFL, and Edmonds is one of them. He's a pass-catching threat in an improved Miami offense run by Mike McDaniel, who worked under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. I'm not overly concerned about Raheem Mostert or Myles Gaskin taking work from Edmonds. Follow the money and secure him as a flex or an RB2 late in drafts.

Craig Ellenport
Top Sleeper: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
Top Rookie: Christian Watson, WR, Packers
Biggest Bust: Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons

New Top Rookie: Chris Olave, WR, Saints
O.K., so my original top rookie pick isn’t even the top rookie receiver on his own team heading into Week 1. Olave, meanwhile, could be a major factor in the Saints offense. The former Buckeye has impressed this summer, and the jury’s still out on whether or not Michael Thomas will return to Pro Bowl form. QB Jameis Winston has no history with any of his top three wideouts – Thomas, Olave and Jarvis Landry – so Olave has a chance to emerge as the team’s top target.

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Bill Enright
Top Sleeper: Russell Gage, WR, Buccaneers
Top Rookie: Alec Pierce, WR, Colts
Biggest Bust: Michael Thomas, WR, Saints

New Top Sleeper: Josh Palmer, WR, Chargers
Palmer is one of my favorite late-round picks. I think the Chargers and Justin Herbert will have the best or a top 3 passing attack, and it’s not all “just” funneling to Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams.

• Fantasy Tiers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Draft Strategies: Picks 1-3 | Picks 4-6 | Picks 7-9 | Picks 10-12
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