Week 1 Dynasty Stock Watch: Buy, Sell, Hold Trade Advice

Analyzing potential dynasty moves and value checks involving Isaiah Likely, David Montgomery, Brian Robinson and more.

Matt De Lima | Sep 6, 2022

Well folks, your self-appointed dynasty league guru is back again. Last year's rants and ravings hopefully served you well. We're back to do it all over again just days ahead of the start of the 2022 NFL season. I want to first take a moment to provide you with a bird's eye view of my dynasty strategies.

I believe most dynasty managers lean a bit on the conservative side. No, I'm not saying you're wearing red caps with "Make Dynasty Great Again" on them. Instead, I believe most play with a wait-and-hold strategy with a little too much waiting and holding. Many dynasty formats play with the benefit of having large rosters and therefore, large benches. And as they say, it's not the size of the bench that matters, it's how you use it.

Generally speaking, I advocate for more roster churning via trades and waiver moves. I'm chasing points. Of course you can only do so much, as it takes two to tango, but it's the spirit of player movement that's important. It's the initiative to offer trades, to talk to your fellow managers.

I'm hitting the waiver wire every week like it's a redraft league. I'm not going to sit on my fourth-string, second-year TE as he toils on the bench for years on end. Only to have him miss the 53-man roster two years from now. I want to get out early and get in before anybody else. It's an attitude.

Yes, it's always possible that a player takes a year or two to hit their stride. Inevitably though, most player values peak just before the NFL draft and begin to taper down slowly week after week. Beyond the first round of your rookie draft, it's more luck than science.

You can't always play with a buy low, sell high mindset because everyone else is, too. It's like poker. If everyone is playing tight, you have to play loose. The game is fluid and we're all reading from the same tea leaves. The goal is to score more points and win; not just make the smart play at the right time, because that time may never come. All I ask is you play a little more aggressively, make trade offers a little more regularly, be appreciably more cognizant of other managers’ team needs and stay true to your gut.

Last thing, before we dive into the stock watch. I do believe right now is the best and worst time to buy and sell via the trade market. I understand we all want to call our shots on players, but we must attempt to find small cracks in our opponent's evaluations to find value-buying opportunities, rather than overspending or chasing players we like.

Baltimore Ravens Isaiah Likely — Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports

TE Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens
You would be correct to assume that rookie tight ends aren't a great investment. Kyle Pitts's monster rookie season was viewed as nothing special by many since expectations were so high. Likely doesn't have that same potential, but there's a confluence of agreeable factors here. The Ravens have a woefully unproven receiver corps and there's potential for flops across the board from Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay and James Proche. Baltimore has a proven track record of tight end usage. Recall in 2019 when Mark Andrews (64-852-10), Hayden Hurst (30-349-2) and Nick Boyle (31-321-2) combined for 125 receptions, 1,522 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Likely's value has peaked and yes, everyone will tell you to sell high—not buy high. But what happens to this guy's value if he even catches five passes for 40 yards and a touchdown in the first couple games? I recommend finding out how committed the manager is to Likely. Is he looking to trade Likely away because he feels his value is maxed out? Let's inquire for a price check and weigh our options.

Price check: 2023 late 2nd
Win-now and rebuild: Buy/Hold

RB Jeff Wilson Jr., San Francisco 49ers
I'm snatching this guy up everywhere. I think most would agree the 49ers are a bit of a wild card. We don't know what to expect from Trey Lance. Elijah Mitchell is barely a top-20 RB by ADP in redraft leagues because most don't believe he can reliably stay healthy.

After the 2022 NFL draft, most were teeing up rookie Tyrion Davis-Price out of LSU as a guy who landed in a favorable sleeper situation. He certainly still is, but I believe Wilson will be the primary backup this year and he could be had for free. This recommendation is a best fit to those who already have Mitchell or TDP, because I believe Wilson is the handcuff to both in dynasty. If Mitchell gets hurt, Wilson and TDP are the new one-two punch. If TDP doesn't pan out this year, then you want Wilson in the short-term. LOGIC'D.

Price check: Your most future, late-round pick
Win-now and rebuild: Buy/Hold

RB David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Is it possible for me to dislike Montgomery any more than I already do? Probably not, but volume backs are always a mystery to me. I don't understand the appeal. Nobody wants to be inefficient. We want to be efficient with our time, our money, you name it. We want to be deliberate and decisive. You see where I'm going with this?

Montgomery is only valuable because he gets the ball a ton. He is not efficient or effective. Even though the Bears will likely run the ball a lot again this year, I just don't believe in Montgomery. Do I like Khalil Herbert? Sure. Am I on the Trestan Ebner bandwagon? With one foot, maybe.

But here's the plot twist: Montgomery being the NFL's Mufasa in seeing the lion's share of the Bears touches will not end this season. Montgomery will be a UFA next season. As much as the dynasty community would love to see Herbert or even Ebner take over, this watched pot won't boil until 2023. Montgomery is on the books for about $3 million this year. It would behoove the Bears to simply squeeze every last drop of blood from this stone in a season where they'll be lucky to crack .500. I believe both Herbert and Ebner will get mixed in, but neither will break out to our hearts' desires this year which will create a buying opportunity for both later this season.

Price check: 2023 early 2nd
Win-now: Hold assuming he establishes he's the clear-cut guy again
Rebuild: Sell after he establishes he's the clear-cut guy again

Player notes
I wouldn't mind adding Ronald Jones off the waiver wire if he's become available in recent days. Nobody believes in Clyde Edwards-Helaire long-term and the hype is thick for rookie Isiah Pacheco. But Jones was solid with the Bucs and we don't need much return value now that his value has tanked. The RB position is always volatile with injuries, so anybody with resume and a pulse is worth more than a total unknown in my final roster spot.

A friendly reminder that I evaluated and ranked George Pickens as my rookie WR1 ahead of the 2022 NFL draft. Sorry, I'm going to keep repeating this until he doesn't pan out.

I also had Malik Willis ahead of Kenny Pickett and I'd like to flip that now. I really don't like how Willis looked this preseason.

Get well soon, Brian Robinson. Is it possible for a guy to win comeback player of the year and rookie of the year? I'm all-in even though we'll probably have to wait at least a month to see him.

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Published Sep 6, 2022

MATT DE LIMA