NFL DFS Week 18 Picks: Bargain Buys and Spend-Up Studs

The biggest trick in Week 18 DFS is understanding which teams still have something to play for.

The final chapter of the 2022 NFL regular season will be played this weekend. I had the best daily season of my career ($250,000 in winnings on November 6 on $700 worth of entries), but I missed out on a life-changing win in mid-December in New Orleans. Last week, a close friend asked me to handicap the Cowboys-Titans single-game slate. I felt TE Dalton Schultz would be the best player in that game. As a result, he pieced together a team that tied for first place and won $41,000. Despite a couple of great weeks, there were too many days when I had tunnel vision, and I didn’t walk through all the checkpoints to give myself the best chance to post a winning day.

The final week of the NFL season is challenging to handicap due to many teams not having something to play for. Here’s a look at each match on the main slate in DFS on Sunday:

Tyler Allgeier has 348 scrimmage yards over the last three weeks :: Brett Davis/USA Today Sports

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
SI Sportsbook lists the Falcons as a 4.5-point favorite over Tampa Bay, which reflects that the Bucs will rest or have a short leash with the top players on both sides of the ball. Therefore, I’m avoiding all Tampa players.

• Tyler Allgeier has played well over the past three weeks (348 combined yards with two touchdowns and six catches) while averaging 20.3 touches per game. He's trending forward, and the Bucs resting defensive players should improve his chance of rushing for more than 100 yards with at least one score. Allgeier needs precisely 100 yards to reach 1,000 in his rookie season.

• The only other player of daily interest in this matchup is Drake London. Over his last four starts, he caught 25 passes for 308 yards while averaging 10 targets. London must score to have a chance to fill his salary bucket.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Both teams in this matchup need a win in Week 18 for different reasons.

• With Damien Harris back in the running back rotation (48% in Week 17), that removes the thought of playing either Patriots running back in the DFS games this week.

• A possible chaser game puts Jakobi Meyers in the mix at wide receiver, and he has been trending over the past two weeks (6/83/1 and 6/49/1). However, Meyers does have a slight shoulder injury coming into Week 18.

• Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are live options this week. New England is banged up at cornerback, inviting more scoring chances for the Bills. The over/under at SI Sportsbook is 42.5, suggesting the Patriots may not push Buffalo hard enough on the scoreboard for Allen and Diggs to post difference-maker games

• Dawson Knox has a touchdown in three consecutive games (4/41/1, 6/98/1, 3/38/1), but he didn’t have a catch in Week 13 vs. New England. The Patriots have risk defending tight ends (71/673/10), pointing to Knox extending his scoring streak.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
The Bears named Nathan Peterman as their starting quarterback in Week 18, crushing any chance of them posting a competitive point total on the scoreboard. Chicago ranks poorly in wide receiver production (113/1,497/9), and they won’t have their top rushing threat (Justin Fields – 160/1,143/8).

• Justin Jefferson needs 229 receiving yards to reach 2,000 for the season. I expect him to be a factor in the daily games, especially if he hits on a long touchdown early. In addition, the Vikings could very well dominate in the first half, like the Jaguars in Week 17, leading to Minnesota benching their best players in the second half.

• The Bears have a porous run defense (504/2,533/29 – 5.0 per carry), but I can’t see Dalvin Cook having a workhorse day. However, Alexander Mattison is viable based on his expected bump in chances and a possible touchdown in the second half.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Earlier in the season, the Ravens beat Cincinnati, 19-17. The Ravens can’t pass Cincinnati in the standings with a win after the NFL decided to cancel the Bills-Bengals game. If they win, Baltimore at least earns a coin flip with Cincinnati to determine who hosts the matchup should these teams meet in the playoffs.

• Tyler Huntley comes into Week 18 with shoulder and wrist issues. Unfortunately, he doesn’t throw the ball well enough to ride him in the DFS market this week, and my gut says Baltimore will rest him this week.

• The Ravens should rotate their backs in this matchup, lowering the playable value of J.K. Dobbins. As a result, I’m avoiding all Ravens players this week while keeping the door open to play Mark Andrews if this matchup has any meaning.

• Ja’Marr Chase needs 40 yards receiving to reach 1,000 yards for the second consecutive season. However, his matchup invites upside based on the Ravens’ risk defending wide receivers (212/2,719/11).

• The Bengals’ side of the offensive equation makes sense in this game, but Cincinnati must be playing for something on Sunday.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts come into this week with a six-game losing streak while rotating in their third quarterback in four weeks. Sam Ehlinger has one career NFL touchdown over his 66 pass attempts. Indianapolis has receiving talent, but they haven’t scored a rushing touchdown in four weeks. The game total at SI Sportsbook in this match is only 38, pointing to a grinder game.

• I’m avoiding all Colts players while leaving a slight crack for Michael Pittman Jr. if his salary fits, and I’m entering multiple teams in a GPP format. He needs four catches to reach 100 for the season, plus 105 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark.

• The Texans have struggled to run the ball in six of their last seven games (16/21/1, 14/36/1, 22/82, 37/114/1, 28/94/1, 30/70/1, 21/84). In addition, they gain only 6.2 yards per pass attempt on the year with 17 touchdowns. I don’t trust any Texans offensive• layers.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Five weeks ago, Jets and Dolphins fans had a bounce in their step, with both teams well positioned for a postseason berth (Jets were 7-4, Dolphins were 8-3). They both come into this week with five-game losing streaks while struggling to keep their top quarterbacks option upright.

Over the past 13 games, New York allowed more than two touchdowns in 12 matchups. Their defense grades well defending quarterbacks (6.4 yards per pass attempt and 15 touchdowns) and wide receivers (160/1,786/10 – 11.2 yards per catch).

• If Teddy Bridgewater suits up on Sunday, he has two of the top eight wideouts in the NFL while having a favorable salary. His matchup isn’t ideal, especially when adding that he has an injured finger on his throwing hand. Despite the negatives, he may surprise while being on a low number of teams. A Dolphins quarterback/wide receiver stack must score about 85 points to deliver a separator score.

• Over the last two games, Miami gave Jeff Wilson the majority of the running back snaps (60% and 65%). His salary is low enough that he may post a better-than-expected game if Wilson hits pay dirt.

• The Jets offense has been missing in action over the last four weeks (12, 17, 3, 6 points). Their quarterbacks have thrown just one touchdown over their last five games. However, from Weeks 13-15, their wide receivers gained more than 200 yards (17/263, 17/213, 14/253). Garrett Wilson is the only player viable for an impact game, but he has been quiet in back-to-back weeks (4/30 and 3/18).

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
The Panthers and Saints have been eliminated from the postseason.

• New Orleans scored 74 points over their last five games (four on the road). They want to run the ball while giving Taysom Hill more chances over the past three weeks (30/132/2).

• The Saints continue to taper the snaps of Alvin Kamara while no longer featuring him in the passing game (2/11, 2/13, 2/34, 1/7 over the last four weeks). He only has one touchdown since Week 8. Despite averaging 20.6 touches in his previous three matchups, he remains overpriced for his production,

• Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have the talent to post a winning score when adding their salary and ceiling. Olave needs 18 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the year. Over the past four games, Shaheed has caught 17 of his 19 targets for 290 yards and one touchdown. He continues to be a value play in the daily space. The Panthers secondary has struggled vs. wide receivers three times (15/225/3, 14/271, 23/370/3) over the previous four weeks.

• Carolina’s hottest player of late has been D.J. Moore (4/103/1, 5/73/1, 5/83/1, 6/117/1), but he did post a zero in Week 14 vs. the Seahawks. Moore needs 122 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the fourth straight season. New Orleans hasn’t allowed more than 155 yards to wide receivers over the last nine games. So, I expect him to underperform expectations in Week 18.

• The Panthers running backs have reasonable salaries, with a different range of outcomes. D'Onta Foreman only has one catch over his previous five games, making him touchdown dependent to reach a playable outcome. New Orleans can be beaten on the ground (451/2,047/12 – 4.5 yards per carry), highlighted by their failure in three matchups (BAL – 40/188/2, PIT – 43/217, and ATL – 39/231/2). Chuba Hubbard showed a spark over the last two weeks (200 combined yards with three catches on 18 touches).

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers work their way into the playoff conversation after stringing three wins together. However, Pittsburgh needs a win plus a loss by either the Patriots or the Dolphins.

Cleveland ranks poorly vs. the run (451/2,151/18 – 4.8 yards per rush), with seven opponents gaining over 150 yards rushing (ATL – 35/202/2, LAC – 34/238/2, BAL – 160/2, MIA – 33/195/2, BUF – 33/171/1, BAL – 28/198, NO – 39/152/2). Najee Harris needs 46 yards rushing to reach 1,000 yards while playing better over the past eight games (141/593/5 with 16 catches for 107 yards and one touchdown). Pittsburgh gave him 70 touches over the last three weeks despite giving Jaylen Warren more chances (29/147/1 with five catches for 40 yards) over this span. Harris is a live option in the DFS market on Sunday, and Warren is priced low enough to possibly surprise if the Steelers play from the lead.

• Diontae Johnson needs 16 catches and 156 yards to join the 100-catch/1,000-yard club while failing to score a touchdown. The Browns’ defense allows only 6.8 yards per pass attempt with no pass scores over the last three weeks.

• Over his 10 complete games, Kenny Pickett has yet to pass for more than one score. His only 300-yard passing game came in Week 5 (327/0).

• Deshaun Watson is 3-2 since returning to the starting lineup, but he has a low completion rate (56.7) and yards per pass attempt (6.2). Watson passed for more than 170 yards in only one contest. The Steelers defense improved vs. the pass over the last six games (199/1, 167/1, 94/0, 225/1, 174/1, 130/1), but they allowed 27 passing touchdowns on the year, with the most risk to wide receivers (177/2,536/17).

• A viable four-player stack in the game looks like Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Donovan People-Jones and Najee Harris. This combination leaves enough room for a couple of upper-tier players.

• Pittsburgh struggled to defend the tight end in three games (CLE – 9/89/1, IND – 10/112, BAL – 12/112/1). As a result, David Njoku is a viable cheat for his position.

• The Steelers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in three games (three over the previous 11 matchups). The scoring slump for Nick Chubb sits at five games. Over his last eight starts, he rushed for 607 yards on 141 carries with two scores. I view him as an against-the-grain play while being rostered by a low number of teams.

Daniel Bartel/USA TODAY Sports

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants are locked into the sixth seed in the NFC, giving their coaching staff a chance to rest their best players at some point in the game. After a two-game losing streak, the Eagles need one more win to clinch the top record in their conference.

Philadelphia leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns (31) but only one over the last two weeks. Jalen Hurts is a beast on the ground (156/747/13), and the Giants struggled to defend the run (432/2,313/15 – 5/4 yards per carry). In their first matchup, the Eagles dominated New York on the ground (31/253/4). Hurts has a high salary, but his floor may be the best on the Sunday slate thanks to his ability to pass as well.

• Miles Sanders has been a bust in three consecutive matchups (11/42, 21/65, 12/61), putting him on the fade list. Despite his path, the faint of heart may be rewarded with a playable day.

• I can’t trust any Giants player due to the risk of an early exit in the game.

• A.J. Brown needs 99 receiving yards to reach 1,500 yards. He has 31 catches for 570 yards and four touchdowns over his last five starts. His matchup is favorable, but he may need to do all of his damage in the first half.

• Based on the success of DeVonta Smith over the last five weeks (32/520/4 – 16.3 yards per catch), a daily gamer should gravitate to the Eagles’ passing in this game. Many will play Hurts due to his value on the ground. On the downside, New York probably won’t do enough offensively to create a high-scoring environment.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
The Commanders named Sam Howell their starting quarterback in Week 18 after getting knocked out of the postseason last week. As a result, SI Sportsbook made the Dallas Cowboys an 8.5-point favorite. Dallas needs a win and an Eagles loss to win the NFC East. However, the score of Philadelphia’s game may lead to the Cowboys to pull their best players in the second half.

• Tony Pollard needs 12 rushing yards to reach 1,000 yards and 141 combined yards to finish with 1,500 total yards.

• Ezekiel Elliott is 134 rushing yards away from 1,000.

• Brian Robinson missed practice on Thursday, and they put Antonio Gibson on the injured list this week. So, Washington may turn to a combination of Jonathan Williams and Jaret Patterson at running back in this matchup. I don’t trust any of the Commanders backs in Week 18.

• Howell brings a running skill set, which helps his floor in the DFS market. My preseason write-up projected him as the best quarterback in the 2022 class, but he does need some game experience.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
SI Sportsbook listed Denver as a 2.5-point favorite over the Chargers, showing that L.A. will rest their best players in this game. Austin Ekeler needs 119 rushing yards to reach 1,000 yards, but I can’t see him on the field for more than a series or two. I’m avoiding all Chargers players.

• With 182 yards receiving, Jerry Jeudy would reach 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. The Broncos listed him as questionable for Sunday with an ankle issue. Jeudy has played better over the past four games (8/73/3, 7/76, 6/117, 7/38). He is in the mix at wide receiver this week despite Russell Wilson tossing only 15 touchdowns on the year.

• This game projects to be low scoring, leading to minimal touchdowns. The Chargers struggle vs. the run (420/2,274/17 – 5.4 yards per rush), giving one of the Broncos running backs a playable day. Based on Chase Edmonds’s bump in snaps (59%) in Week 17, I expect him to be a viable cheat running back.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals ruled out DeAndre Hopkins for Week 18 while giving QB David Blough a second start. James Conner missed practice on Thursday, suggesting that Arizona may shut him down for the year. I don’t expect any Cardinals player to be viable in this matchup.

San Francisco is a 14.5-point favorite with a favorable run matchup (409/1,847/19 – 4.5 yards per rush). Christian McCaffrey has a touchdown in five consecutive games. The 49ers should limit his usage in the second half, making it difficult to use him in the daily games due to his high salary. Jordan Mason doesn’t have a bottom-floor salary, but he may see enough chances to pay off for his investment.

• Brandon Aiyuk is 44 yards shy of 1,000 yards receiving.

• Over the last three weeks, George Kittle has 14 catches for 236 yards and five touchdowns.

• Deebo Samuel turned in a full practice on Wednesday, giving him a chance to start this week. However, I don’t expect him to see a complement of snaps.

One 49ers player may land on the winning ticket this week, but I sense their star players won’t see enough playing time to trust as a foundational daily player.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith was the million-dollar play in Week 13 against the Rams when he passed for 367 yards and three touchdowns. DK Metcalf (8/127/1) and Tyler Lockett (9/128/1) had impact games in that matchup. The Rams defense faded vs. the run over the past four weeks (38/165/1, 35/138/2, 20/104/1, 31/192/2). Only three teams passed for more than 300 yards (314/0, 320/1, 367/3).

• Kenneth Walker needs 64 rushing yards to reach 1,000 yards. He missed practice on Thursday with an ankle issue and illness. Over the last two weeks, Walker regained his form (26/107 and 23/133) in the run game. Daily gamers must have him in the running back rotation in Week 18.

• Last week, Tyler Lockett was only on the field for 32% of the Seahawks’ plays. He continued to be limited this week with a shin issue.

• Cam Akers is the only Rams option in play in the daily games. Over the last three games, he’s gained 380 yards with three touchdowns and six catches.

The Picks

Quarterbacks
Top Options: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow
Mid-Tier: Geno Smith, Deshaun Watson
Value: Kenny Pickett, Miami Starter, Russell Wilson

Running Backs
Top Options: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook. Joe Mixon
Mid-Tier: Najee Harris, Kenneth Walker, Cam Akers
Value: Tyler Allgeier, Miles Sanders, Chase Edmonds

Wide Receivers
Top Options: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs
Mid-Tier: DK Metcalf, Jerry Jeudy, Chris Olave. Brandon Aiyuk
Value: Rashid Shaheed, Diontae Johnson. Donovan Peoples-Jones

Tight Ends
Top Options: George Kittle, Mark Andrews
Mid-Tier: Dallas Goedert, Tyler Higbee
Value: Dawson Knox, David Njoku

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