Fantasy Baseball: Experts Come Together for LABR Draft Review

Best picks, biggest regrets and nastiest snipes from this 15-team draft.

On Feb. 21, the LABR experts league gathered to kick off fantasy baseball draft season.

LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) was formed in 1994 by John Hunt, a fantasy baseball columnist for USA Today, and the original group featured experts such as Bill James, who many know from the movie Moneyball. The “experts” have changed over time, and the league is now commissioned by Steve Gardner of USA Today, but the scoring is the same. LABR is a standard 5X5 rotisserie league with hitting (AVG, R, HR,RBI, SB) and pitching (W, ERA, WHIP, K, S) categories.

I was fortunate to join the group for this year’s 15-team snake draft. Here is the list of participants and also a link to the final draft board.

LABR Teams

1. Fred Zinkie
2. Prospect 361 – Tim McLeod
3. USA TODAY Sports – Steve Gardner
4. Sports Illustrated – Jennifer Piacenti
5. CreativeSports – Zach Steinhorn
6. Baseball HQ – Ryan Bloomfield
7. Yahoo Sports – Scott Pianowski
8. RotoWire – Jeff Erickson
9. Dr. Roto – Mark Bloom
10. Fangraphs – Mike Podhorzer
11. Razzball - Rudy Gamble
12. TheFantasyFix – Alan Harrison
13. Joe Sheehan Newsletter – Joe Sheehan
14. Fantasy Guru – Ray Flowers
15. ESPN– Kyle Soppe

• See Complete Draft Board

Aaron Judge was the fourth overall pick in the LABR draft :: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports

Entering the draft, I came in with the strategy to make sure I was covered at the thin positions early. I knew that would mean waiting on pitching, and that is how it played out. With the fourth pick in round one, I opted for Aaron Judge, though I debated Jose Ramirez. Outfield and third base are shallow this year, but in a five-OF league, I decided I couldn’t pass up the reigning AL MVP.

Perusing Twitter after the draft, it looks like I may not have been the only one thinking this way:

My biggest takeaway from participating in last night’s LABR draft: when debating between two hitters, go with the outfielder.

— Fred Zinkie (@FredZinkieMLB) February 22, 2023

In the next two rounds I grabbed a third baseman (Nolan Arenado) and then a second baseman (Jose Altuve). At that point, I felt like I had a solid advantage at thin positions, and I opted to make sure I had a top catcher in Will Smith. My first pitcher came in Round 5 with Alek Manoah, and my strategy after that was to roster pitchers that I thought could rack up Ws for me, and also to get a sneaky edge on the saves category. Overall, I like the way the team came together, though speed could be a sticky spot for me. Hopefully with all the closers (or potential closers) I rostered, I will have some trade bait for a speedster as the season moves along.

Tim McLeod told me he had the same impressions leaving the draft that I had going into the draft:

“All in all, the draft reinforced several of my thoughts as we head into 2023,” said McLeod. “Don't leave the outfield as an end-game play. You won't be happy. When you need 75 at a minimum in a 15-team league, it gets tough. Third base thins very quickly as well. Starting pitching is plentiful and the need to move early and often, which was a dominant trend last year, is not necessary. One can build a very solid rotation going a bit later on starters.”

Since the LABR draft is the unofficial start of the fantasy draft season, I asked the participants to give me some of their thoughts on the draft. Most importantly, I focused on favorite picks, so perhaps others can glean where we are seeing early value. So, here it is: the LABR 15-team draft in the participants’ own words.

Favorite picks

Kyle Soppe (ESPN): Max Scherzer (Round 4, Pick 1). I very much tossed around the idea of going pocket aces to start the draft, but as the board fell to me, I opted to wait and I’m glad I did. Mad Max is the end of my top tier of pitching and while his age is certainly a thing (turns 39 in July), I love the elevated floor that comes with him. He has posted consecutive seasons with a sub-1.00 WHIP and I think the fact that opponents have hit just .182 against him on his third time through the order over the past two seasons serves as a reminder that he can still chew up innings.

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo): My favorite pick was Drew Rasmussen at pick 150 (end of Round 10). He was great on a per-inning basis last year and has a chance to throw more innings this season. And the Rays always do a great job with their pitchers.

Joe Sheehan (Joe Sheehan newsletter): I was very pleased to see Shane McClanahan fall to me at 3.13, especially since at that point I didn’t love my options behind him. I have him ahead of the starters who went immediately before he did as well.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs): The LABR draft is always so unpredictable, resulting in lots of surprises, so I ended up with a couple of favorite picks. I gambled on Chris Sale, who has only thrown about 196 innings since 2019, in Round 11! But we know how dominant he could be if healthy, so the upside here is massive and it didn't even cost me a top 10-round pick to speculate. I'm also excited about Esteury Ruiz, who I selected in Round 17. He should have a secure everyday job in the Athletics’ outfield and could become an elite source of steals, with a touch of home run power mixed in.

Tim McLeod (Prospect 361): Daulton Varsho. He's really going to like that new 357-foot power alley in right-center this year.

Kim Klement/USA Today Sports

Mark Bloom (Dr. Roto): Round 6: Adley Rutschman. There are a lot of experts who think that he could be a top three catcher this season and I agree. He's one of the few catchers that could hit about .280 with 15-20 home runs and 60-70 RBIs. I was excited about getting him in the middle of round six considering he is going early in round five in the NFBC.

Steve Gardner (USA Today): My favorite pick may have been Bryce Harper late in Round 12 (No. 178 overall). With unlimited IR spots, I’ll be able to fill my utility slot with the best hitter I can find before the season starts. Since we draft so early, there’s plenty of time for some interesting sleepers to pop up in spring training. As long as Harper comes back in July at close to 100% from his elbow surgery, my roster will get a timely boost with the addition of an elite hitter.

Zach Steinhhorn (CreativeSports): Spencer Torkelson (22nd round). I think Torkelson is one of the better "post-hype sleeper" picks this year and was pleasantly surprised to get him this late. He could be a very cheap 25-homer source.

Rudy Gamble (Razzball): Corbin Burnes with pick no. 20 (2.5) and Jazz Chisolm with pick no. 41 (3.11) (I both love and hate this pick).

Regrets, they had a few

No one drafts without having one pick they don’t feel the best about. Here are some of the least favorite picks of the draft.

Kyle Soppe: Whit Merrifield (Round 12, Pick 1): Do I hate the player? No. I hate the spot I was in that forced me to go that direction. I had to chase some speed to a degree and while he may get to the 20 swipes we have him projected for, there’s certainly more downside than upside in his profile. Hitting down in the order (even in a loaded lineup) comes with some concerns … and so does a 34-year-old coming off a season with a career-high chase rate that went 1-of-3 on stolen base attempts across 44 games with the Blue Jays. Merrifield answered the question of who addresses speed in the middle rounds … turns out, that was probably the wrong question to have to be asking at that point.

Fred Zinkie: My least favorite pick was Jacob deGrom at pick 60. I felt like his skill set was too good to pass up at that point in the draft, but in hindsight I wish that I had drafted a more reliable starter and let someone else deal with the headaches that come with rostering deGrom.

Joe Sheehan: There were a number of spots in even-numbered rounds where I felt I was flailing a bit after getting picked off by Ray at 14 and Kyle at 15. Luis Severino in the eighth is probably the best example of that, a pick I don’t love that I fell into when players I wanted went ahead of me.

Tim McLeod: Elvis Andrus. I waited too long to fill my MI spot. I really wanted Ha-Seong Kim or Bryson Stott and should have moved either up a couple of rounds.

Steve Gardner: If I could have a pick back, I think I’d take catcher Willson Contreras in the seventh round instead of Byron Buxton. Though I love Buxton’s potential, my inability to draft a catcher until Round 19 really had me scrambling to fill those two spots.

Zach Steinhorn: My least favorite pick: Logan Webb (sixth round). This might be nitpicking as I do like Webb, but I'd feel more comfortable with him as my third starting pitcher as opposed to my second starter. The most frustrating part of the draft for me was in the sixth round when my two remaining SP2 targets, Joe Musgrove and Triston McKenzie, were taken with the two picks right before my turn, so I reached a bit for Webb. Maybe he would have still been on the board a round or two later.

Sniped picks

Finally, in an experts’ league like this one, there’s plenty of sniping that goes on. Even when a player wasn’t sniped, I found myself having some pick envy. I asked the participants which pick that belonged to someone else was their favorite.

Kyle Soppe: Tyler O’Neill (Round 7, Pick 5 to Zach Steinhorn): This probably doesn’t count as a “snipe” (I was still a little ways away) as much as it does crushing of dreams. I passed on O’Neill at the beginning of Round 6 in favor of safety, hoping that his upside would somehow make it back to me … I was wrong and it was Zach’s gain. O’Neill is a plus athlete that made nice contact strides last season, growth that I expect will put him on a similar production path to his 2021 (.560 SLG) more than his 2022 (.392). Losing a player I wanted hurt, seeing him go to a team that already had a nice/balanced roster hurt more … I don’t know about you, but losing out on a target is one thing, but seeing him thrive on another contending team just drags out that pain. Well played Mr. Steinhorn. Well. Played.

Fred Zinkie: I loved Joe Sheehan's selection of Shane McClanahan at pick 43. To me, he's as valuable as the starters who went a full round earlier. I also thought that Ray Flowers got great value when he grabbed Freddie Freeman at pick 14.

Joe Sheehan: As I say, I think Ray and Kyle were doing a great job. Ray getting Tyler Glasnow at 8.2 stands out to me. I think Jeff Erickson getting Lucas Giolito at 10.8 will prove to be a steal.

Tim McLeod: My favorite pick that went elsewhere was Gunnar Henderson in the seventh round. I saw it coming and when he went off the board to Steve Gardner with the pick directly before mine, I shed a tear....actually a couple.

Mark Bloom: Scott Pianowski from Yahoo has been a friend of mine for years and by now I should know that he is never going to take a pitcher in Rounds 1-3. I thought there was a small chance that Matt Olson was going to make it to me in Round 3, but Scott sniped me. I ended up with Rowdy Tellez as my first baseman in Round 10. Going from Matt Olson to Rowdy Tellez is like going from filet mignon to flank steak.

Steve Gardner: Two of the best picks of the draft, to me, were Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts (by Jen Piacenti) in the sixth round and Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow (by Ray Flowers) in the eighth. Those were sticking out like sore thumbs on my cheat sheet. While I didn’t really have any shot at Glasnow, Bogaerts was nabbed the pick right in front of me. Even though I had Trea Turner at shortstop and was very happy taking Gunnar Henderson with my sixth-rounder, it would have been very tempting to double up with Bogaerts if I had the opportunity.

Rudy Gamble: Nathaniel Lowe with pick no. 120 by Fred Zinkie

• Jen Piacenti’s Round-by-Round LABR Draft:
1. Aaron Judge, OF
2. Nolan Arenado, 3B
3. Joe Altuve, SS
4. Will Smith, C
5. Alek Manoah, SP
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS
7. Vinnie Pasquarantino, 1B
8. Clayton Kershaw, SP
9. David Bednar, RP
10. Charlie Morton, SP
11. Clay Holmes, RP
12. J.D. Martinez, 1B
13. Pete Fairbanks, RP
14. Miles Mikolas, SP
15. Oscar Gonzalez, OF
16. Jose Siri, OF
17. Jon Berti, 2B
18. Joc Pederson, OF 
19. Charlie Blackmon, OF
20. Martin Perez, SP
21. Seranthony Dominguez, RP
22. Yoan Moncada, IF
23. Christian Bethancourt
24. Yuli Gurriel, 1B
25. Dominic Smith, OF
26. Oswaldo Cabrera, 1B
27. John Means, SP
28. Tarik Skubal, SP
29.  Brandon Crawford, SS