5 Players (Perhaps Busts) Going Too High in Fantasy Drafts

A pair of young Braves and the reigning NL MVP are among those whose expectations should be tempered.

Believe it or not, it’s not fun to write a bust list. Who wants to think about players that will not meet expectations?

But think about it, we must.

When planning your fantasy baseball drafts, it is important to consider how to spend your draft capital– whether it is a late-round pick in a snake draft or a high bid in a salary-cap draft.

I wrote an article Wednesday about five hitters I am targeting late in drafts. I chose those sleepers based on the value they present at their current draft day cost. All of those players had an average draft position of 150 or lower.

Today, I want to focus on the flip side of the coin -- players that I’m skeptical about based on where they are currently being drafted.

All five of these players are immensely talented, and I would want them on my fantasy squad at the right price. However, at their current ADP, I have concerns.

Here are five potential bust candidates for 2023. All of these players are coming off the board before pick 60.

Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA Today Sports

Dylan Cease, SP (CHI)

The White Sox righty impressed last season, logging 14 wins with a spectacular 2.20 ERA (third in MLB) and striking batters out at an impressive 11.10 per nine innings (fourth). He finished second in AL Cy Young voting. His five-pitch mix kept hitters guessing and he allowed a mere .78 home runs per nine innings. Statcast says his expected BA allowed was .184 and his fastball spin and velocity are all in the top 10% of the league. Here’s the issue with Cease: He walks too many batters. Cease issued a league-worst 3.82 walks per nine innings last season among qualified pitchers. Thankfully he had an 83.3% strand rate last season, but eventually that will come back to bite him. Throw that together with an Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 3.50 and a max exit velocity allowed in the bottom 5% of the league, and though I think Cease is an excellent pitcher, I have concerns about taking him as early as the third round. 

Spencer Strider, SP (ATL)

The reigning NL ROY had a phenomenal 2022, finishing the season with a 2.39 ERA and a K rate in the top 2% of the league across 131 ⅔ innings pitched. He has a nasty slider and his 98 mph fastball helped him rack up a whopping 202 Ks. There’s every reason to believe his skill set is legit. So, what’s the problem? Strider is coming off the board as early as the SP4 in fantasy drafts ahead of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Brandon Woodruff, with an average ADP of 34. For a pitcher that has never pitched more than 132 innings in a season in his career (previously his max in the minors was 96), expecting more than 150 IP seems like a stretch. If the Braves go to the postseason as expected, there’s even more reason to anticipate Atlanta will manage innings for their young stud. On a per-game basis, his ratios and counting stats should be elite, but taking him as the fourth pitcher overall seems a bit of a stretch. 

Michael Harris II, OF (ATL)

The rookie outfielder finished second in NL ROY voting behind teammate Spencer Strider, and he certainly impressed in his first year in the big leagues, hitting .297 with 19 home runs and 20 stolen bases across 414 ABs. Now, it’s not that I don’t think Harris is dripping with talent, it’s that I can’t draft him at his current ADP of 30, and he’s often going as early as the second round. I don’t expect a sophomore slump, but it is certainly possible as Harris’s strikeout rate is in the bottom 30% of the league, his walk rate is in the bottom 11% of the league, and his chase rate is in the bottom 7%. That says to me there is room for batting average regression and statcast agrees. Harris’s expected BA of .268 seems more like what we can expect in 2023, and his expected SLG of .460 seems more likely than the .514 for 2022. I really like Harris, but I want to draft him as the player I expect him to be this year -- maybe .265 with 23 HR and 20 steals -- and not pay last year’s price. An ADP of 30 is just a little too soon. 

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (STL)

It seems like Paul Goldschmidt makes the bust list almost every season and he still continues to silence the doubters, but this time I mean it! It’s not that I think Goldy isn’t going to be good, it’s that he simply can’t continue to be THAT good. He shocked us all in 2022, winning the NL MVP at age 34 while slashing .317/.404/.578 with 35 home runs and 115 RBIs. But Goldy massively outperformed his underlying metrics last season. Goldschmidt hit an incredible .317 while his xBA was only .261. That’s the biggest disparity between hitters with at least 200 balls in play (BIP). Goldschmidt also slugged .578 while his xSLG was .482. His strikeout rate was in the bottom half of the league and after tallying double-digit steals in 2021, he stole only seven in 2022. Yes, he benefits from weaker pitching in the NL Central, but in his age-35 season, Goldy could finally come back down to earth. He’s currently the number four first baseman off the board and going as early as the second round.

Alec Manoah, SP (TOR)

I truly hope I am wrong about this one since I am counting on Manaoh for my LABR team, but he looks like a candidate to bust after a spectacular 2022. Manaoah’s 2.24 ERA was far better than his expected 3.31 ERA according to Statcast, the eighth biggest disparity among pitchers with at least 200 BIP. Manoah is able to limit hard contact, but he is not a big strikeout pitcher, with only 8.25 K/9. With new rules regarding the shift and an xFIP of 3.97, it’s likely we could see regression. That being said, he’s had two strong spring starts, so don’t be afraid to draft him, just be aware of the value. Manoah is coming off the board as a fourth-round pick in fantasy drafts.