2023 NFL Draft: Bijan Robinson Could Be a Fantasy Monster If He Lands Here

The Texas running back is one of the hottest names in the draft. How he fares as a rookie depends largely on where he goes.

The latest NFL mock draft from FanNation has running back Bijan Robinson heading to Detroit. With two first-round picks, the Lions certainly could have the luxury.

At first glance, I hated this. I wanted to see the NFL draft’s top-ranked RB prospect land with the Bengals, Cowboys or Bills, places in which he could immediately make a fantasy impact. Most drafts now have him going to the Los Angeles Chargers, where there are questions as to the future of Austin Ekeler.

But, after some further reflection, maybe I do like Robinson to the Lions. Could we see some sneaky fantasy draft-day value if he gets added to the Detroit backfield? Hang with me here…

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First off, let’s start with the Lions as a team. Last year they surpassed all expectations, finishing the season with a winning 9-8 record and finishing second in the NFC North. They finished 11th in rushing yards per game (128.2) and third in rushing TDs (23).

Running back Jamaal Williams led the NFL with 17 rushing TDs last season, and he finished as the RB8 overall in PPR fantasy football leagues. He carried the ball a league-high 41 times inside the 10-yard line.

D’Andre Swift was perceived to be the Lions’ No. RB when the season began. He remained efficient on a per-touch basis, but due to injury and the way the Lions’ used Williams, Swift finished as the RB20 on a per-game basis. Swift had double-digit carries in only three contests last season.

In the offseason, the Lions let Williams walk to the Saints in free agency, and instead they inked David Montgomery to a three-year deal worth up to $18 million. Montgomery is expected to assume the goal-line role for Detroit.

In Montgomery's 15 healthy games played with the Bears last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points and finished as the RB29 on a per-game basis. When he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery was even less productive, averaging only 9.2 fantasy points per game.

Enter Bijan Robinson.

If the Lions want to control the clock, they will certainly have a trio capable of that should they use their pick to draft the star running back out of the University of Texas.

Even more importantly, they could just let their rookie star run with the job. After all, Swift has only logged double-digit carries in 11 games across the past two seasons, and Montgomery is not a particularly efficient runner, averaging a mere 3.9 yards per attempt for his NFL career.

In his third year at UT, not only did Robinson run for an impressive 1,575 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry; as a receiver, he added 19 receptions for another 314 yards.

Put Robinson behind that O-line that saw even Jamaal Williams have major success, and suddenly Swift looks like a sell candidate in dynasty leagues.

If Robinson goes to the Lions, there’s easily a scenario where he finishes top 10 at the position in his rookie season.

I changed my mind. I’m in.