2023 NFL Draft: Don’t Expect Fantasy Success From Rookie Quarterbacks

Recent history shows it’s a rarity for first-round passers to make a major impact.

The 2023 NFL draft is almost upon us, which excites both the real and fantasy fan bases across the globe. Maybe the most important position in terms of real football is, of course, quarterback. Based on many of the countless mock drafts we’re seeing across the world wide web, we could see as many as five signal-callers in Round 1 – Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Florida’s Anthony Richardson, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker.

The question for our purposes is: Historically speaking, how have prominently drafted players at the most important position fared in terms of fantasy production?

Well, I jumped in the fantasy DeLorean, got that sucker up to 88 miles per hour and looked at exactly that. Why? Because by looking at the past, we can find trends that can help us in the future. Since this focuses on first-year players and their stats (or lack thereof) alone, you won’t see Patrick Mahomes, for example, as Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith in Year 1. The same goes for Aaron Rodgers, who say behind Brett Favre, Philip Rivers and others.

So, without further ado, here’s what I found that can make you a better drafter.

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In the last 23 years, since the turn of the century, 66 quarterbacks have been selected in Round 1. Three (4.5%) have finished with more than 300 fantasy points, six (9%) have scored over 250 points and 13 (20%) posted more than 200 points. Just one of those signal-callers, Mac Jones, wasn’t selected among the first seven picks of their respective drafts.

Digging a little deeper, we find that among the top 20 rookie quarterback seasons, eight were the No. 1 overall pick. Three were the second pick, and two went third. Tally that up, and 13 of the top 20 (65%) were selected among the top three. What’s more, a mere three of those 20 quarterbacks were picked outside of the top eight.

Now, let’s look at things on a points-per-game basis.

Deshaun Watson leads all first-year quarterbacks with an average of 24.1 points per game in 2017, but he played just seven contests (six starts). The other three who averaged 20-plus were Cam Newton (2011), Justin Herbert (2020) and Robert Griffin III (2012). Eight others averaged 16-plus points, making the grand total for first-year field generals who hit that mark 12 (or just 18% of all first-rounders).

Here’s another little tidbit to wrap your fantasy football brain around, and it certainly won’t endear you to first-round quarterbacks. Among the 32 rookies who made at least 12 starts, all but nine averaged fewer than 14 points per game. Among those nine quarterbacks, seven (78%) were selected among the top two overall picks.

That leads us to yet another trend.

Since 2000, first-round rookie quarterbacks have accounted for a mere five top-10 finishes and just eight top-20 finishes. Over the last three years, only Herbert and Kyler Murray have finished better than 18th and just three have finished higher than 23rd at the position. That’s not an attractive trend for the incoming class.

I found one final trend pertaining to Young, the projected No. 1 overall pick of this year’s draft. It has nothing to do with draft position or being a rookie, but instead with his size. Young’s official height at the NFL Combine was 5’10”, 204 pounds. Only two other field generals in the Super Bowl era at 5'10" or shorter and 205 or lighter have scored over 200 fantasy points in a season: Sonny Jurgensen (1967, 1969) and Doug Flutie (1999). That trend might be the worst of all for Young.

Based on the data, fantasy fans looking for a potential breakout (or even a regular fantasy starter) in 2023 might be disappointed. While this year’s class should fare better than the 2022 version, I don't see a Year 1 superstar on the list of prospects.

If the trend of top-three quarterbacks being the ones who could be exceptions remains true, then Young, Stroud and Richardson could be worth a late look.