MLB DFS Picks for Tuesday: Giants Hitters Will Produce vs. Patrick Corbin

Plus, four other games that should feature plenty of offense.

All season long at Sports Illustrated, I have been picking on Patrick Corbin because whenever he is pitching, games tend to hit the over for their run total. It’s a bet I am locking and loading again today, and I am also applying it to my DFS lineup. Oddsmakers have the run total for tonight’s Nationals-Giants game listed at 8.5, but I am expecting plenty more.

To begin with, let’s focus on Corbin himself. Corbin has been shaky to start the season. His ERA is 5.17 with an xERA of 5.82, and his expected SLG is in the bottom 14% of the league. That doesn’t seem to match up well with a Giants team that has scored 58.4% of its runs this season via the home run -- the highest percentage in the league.

The Nationals bullpen has an ERA of 4.33.

Robert Edwards/USA Today Sports

On the other side of this matchup is Logan Webb, who has been good to start the season but is still allowing plenty of hard hits. Most importantly, though, the Giants’ bullpen remains among the worst in the league with an ERA of 5.80. Though the Nationals are not an offensive juggernaut, Washington was able to muster five runs in Monday’s win over the Giants.

So, we are going to go over, and players from both sides of this game are in play. Here are some value players I am targeting.

1. Michael Conforto is batting .323 with an OPS of 1.215 and 12 RBIs across 31 career at-bats vs. Corbin. Five of his extra-base hits have been home runs. He’s a super value today, maybe because DFS sites worry about lefty on lefty. Forget that. Conforto is a start.
2. J.D. Davis is also good value today and he has a 1.069 OPS with seven extra-base hits vs. Corbin.

Among games being played today, these matchups have the highest run totals:

Rockies-Pirates
Mets-Reds
Dodgers-Brewers
Red Sox-Braves

Consider the studs in those matchups. Value players to consider from those games include Austin Barnes, Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Belt, and Wil Myers.