10-Round Fantasy Mock Draft: A Rookie Goes in Round 1

Falcons first-round pick Bijan Robinson expected to go early in fantasy drafts.

The calendar has moved past the 2023 NFL draft, so now we’re at the point in the offseason where we go from NFL mock drafts to “fantasy” mocks. With most of the free agents signed, the rookies drafted and more news coming out about the status of players returning from injuries, mock drafts will be much closer in terms of their potential accuracy of player values and projected draft positions.

After a few pre-NFL draft, five-round mocks, here’s my first one-man, 10-round mock for 2023. One thing you’ll notice is that unlike most mocks I’ve done in the past, wide receivers have become more prominent. The big-name, elite running backs are still very valuable, of course, but it’s impossible to ignore the numbers we see from wide receivers, most notably the younger players coming in and making a major impact.

Elite quarterbacks have also moved up, as you’ll see two come off the board in the top 24 picks and a third selected in the top 30. Times are changing, folks.

This mock includes 12 fantasy “teams” and is based on a PPR scoring system. Each team used different “strategies” with their first three overall picks so you can see how the roster is built at the top. Notice, wideouts have passed runners in volume.

Note: I did not include Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette or any free agents.

Team 1: Wide receiver, quarterback, running back
Team 2: Running back, wide receiver, wide receiver
Team 3: Wide receiver, quarterback, wide receiver
Team 4: Wide receiver, running back, quarterback
Teams 5 & 12: Running back, wide receiver, running back
Team 6: Wide receiver, wide receiver, running back
Team 7: Running back, running back, running back
Team 8: Running back, wide receiver, tight end
Team 9: Tight end, wide receiver, wide receiver
Team 10: Running back, running back, wide receiver
Team 11: Wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver

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ROUND 1

1.1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
1.2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
1.3. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
1.4. Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
1.5. Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers
1.6. Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
1.7. Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
1.8. Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
1.9. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
1.10. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
1.11. Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
1.12. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans

Notes: I’m a running backs truther, but even I see Jefferson as the top overall pick. The overall shift to drafting more wide receivers is also evident, as four of the first six picks are receivers. McCaffrey, my top running back, was the No. 2 back in 2022. He’ll continue to thrive in San Francisco’s runner-friendly offense. Ekeler was the top-scoring running back in fantasy football, and he’s the lone player at the position to score 300-plus points in each of the last two years. But where will he play in 2023 and beyond? Stay tuned. Chase missed five games last season but was fourth in points-per-game average among wideouts. Kupp averaged 22.4 points for the Rams and was on pace to score 380.5 points before he was injured and missed the final eight games. That total would have put him ahead of Jefferson for the lead at wide receiver. Hill finished second in points among wideouts and proved he didn’t need Patrick Mahomes to remain a stud on the field and in fantasy land.

Barkley has been franchised by the Giants, but he hasn’t signed his tag just yet. I’m assuming he will. Maybe I’m too high on Robinson, or maybe I’m not high enough? I’ve seen analyst mocks where he’s the No. 2 pick. Regardless, the new lead runner in Atlanta will be a first-rounder in all redrafts. Taylor was a massive disappointment in 2022, finishing outside of the top 30 backs after being the top overall pick in drafts. Still, he’s just 23 and should rebound. I’m not saying I would draft Kelce in Round 1, but he’s so much better than every other tight end in the league that he’ll be a top-10 pick in most leagues. Henry finished as the RB4 last season, but he’s had a ton of carries in his NFL career and will be heading into his age-29 season.

ROUND 2

2.13. Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
2.14. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
2.15. Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
2.16. A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
2.17. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
2.18. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
2.19. Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
2.20. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins
2.21. Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys
2.22. Josh Allen, QB, Bills
2.23. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Cardinals
2.24. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Notes: Seven wideouts came off the board in this round, compared to a mere three running backs. Chubb did see his value rise though, as the Browns won’t bring back Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Jonson signed with the Jaguars. Jacobs, like Barkley, has been franchised but didn’t sign his tag. Brown and Lamb are both coming off career years and will be top-20 selections. St. Brown has moved up after posting his second big fantasy season, and Wilson should shine with Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets. Hopkins is getting older, but he was productive in 2022.

Pollard’s draft stock rose a bit with the release of Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas, and the team didn’t take a high impact running back in the draft. I have two quarterbacks, Allen and Mahomes, coming off the board in Round 2. Shocking, but true!

ROUND 3

3.25. Breece Hall, RB, Jets
3.26. Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles
3.27. DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
3.28. Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
3.29. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots
3.30. Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
3.31. Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
3.32. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
3.33. Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
3.34. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
3.35. Amari Cooper, WR, Browns
3.36. Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars

Notes: This round features several good, young running backs who have mid-RB1 upside. If he’s recovered from a torn ACL in time for Week 1, Hall will be a major asset and could move up in future mocks. Stevenson was the RB7 this past season, and Damien Harris signed with Buffalo. New England did add James Robinson, though. Etienne has top-15 potential at his position in what remains an explosive Jaguars offense.

Hurts had a career season in 2022 and belongs in the top 30 moving forward. He could be the first field general picked in many drafts. Harris fell from the ranks of the first round after a sophomore season that saw him average a modest 3.8 yards per rush and post just 41 catches. The Steelers did address the offensive line in the draft, though, so he should be better in terms of his rushing numbers.

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ROUND 4

4.37. Chris Olave, WR, Saints
4.38. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
4.39. Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
4.40. Ken Walker, RB, Seahawks
4.41. Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
4.42. Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars
4.43. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
4.44. T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings
4.45. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
4.46. Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders
4.47. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
4.48. Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans

Notes: Burrow is now locked in as a top-50 pick and he’s the consensus No. 4 fantasy quarterback. Walker lost some of his luster when the Seahawks added Zach Charbonnet in the draft, but I’m not convinced he’ll see a huge decline in touches. Ridley is flying up ADP boards and is now a top-50 pick. Olave will play alongside Michael Thomas (for how long, no one knows), but he’s the better of the Saints wideouts from a fantasy standpoint.

Pierce averaged almost 13 points per game as a rookie and should retain the top spot on the depth chart in Houston under new coach DeMeco Ryans. The addition of Devin Singletary could hurt his ceiling, though. Gibbs is the second rookie off the board, but can he avoid the Curse of Barry Sanders? I joke (kinda). Hockenson, who was the TE2 last season, is now a top-50 overall pick at what is a weak position. Cook saw his yards per rush average decline a season ago, and he’s more of a risk heading into his age-28 season. There’s also been a few reports he could be moved. Stay tuned.

ROUND 5

5.49. Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars
5.50. Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
5.51. Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers
5.52. Miles Sanders, RB, Panthers
5.53. DJ Moore, WR, Bears
5.54. Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
5.55. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
5.56. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
5.57. James Conner, RB, Cardinals
5.58. George Kittle, TE, 49ers
5.59. D'Andre Swift, RB, Eagles
5.60. Christian Watson, WR, Packers

Notes: White's value is on the rise as the projected top running back in Tampa Bay. He's now a low-end No. 2 fantasy runner. Pittman will have a new quarterback, either Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew, but he’ll remain a No. 2 wideout or flex option. Godwin and Evans are tough to rank after Tom Brady’s retirement, but both have seen a decline in value regardless. Whether it’s Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, the downgrade at quarterback is massive. Swift, who was traded to the Eagles, could be a decent bargain if he can avoid injuries.

ROUND 6

6.61. Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles
6.62. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
6.63. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts
6.64. Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers
6.65. Cam Akers, RB, Rams
6.66. Drake London, WR, Falcons
6.67. Justin Fields, QB, Bears
6.68. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens
6.69. David Montgomery, RB, Lions
6.70. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
6.71. Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons
6.72. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos

Notes: Jackson, Herbert and Fields are all on the same quarterback tier and are all picked within six spots of each other in this mock. Jackson has a new deal with the Ravens, and all three had talent added to their passing games. The stock of Akers and White are on the rise after their respective teams decided not to add much competition in the draft. Kamara, who is a declining fantasy player and could be facing a suspension, has fallen all the way down to the sixth round after being a top-20 pick most of his career. Two Falcons, Pitts and London, finish out the round.

ROUND 7

7.73. Darren Waller, TE, Giants
7.74. Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
7.75. Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs
7.76. Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers 
7.77. Treylon Burks, WR, Titans
7.78. Jamaal Williams, RB, Saints
7.79. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars
7.80. Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys
7.81. Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals
7.82. James Cook, RB, Bills
7.83. AJ Dillon, RB, Packers
7.84. Antonio Gibson, RB, Commanders

Notes: Waller’s stock rose a bit with his trade to the Giants, but durability concerns do remain. Thus, he’s a seventh-rounder. Williams remains a question mark after a serious knee injury, and new coach Sean Payton recently said the runner “hopefully, might not start on PUP.” It’ll be a good idea to handcuff him with Samaje Perine (see Round 8). The round contains some upside runners in Pacheco, Cook and Williams (who could be the best Saints back when you consider Kamara’s situation). Lawrence is the last of the top eight signal-callers based on my rankings, and he could end up being a good value with Ridley now in the mix. Burks has sleeper/breakout appeal as the No. 1 wideout in Tennessee. Cooks is more of a No. 3 wideout or flex in fantasy leagues, but he still has 1,000-yard potential in Dallas.

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ROUND 8

8.85. Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
8.86. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
8.87. Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns
8.88. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs
8.89. Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks
8.90. Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
8.91. Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars
8.92. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Patriots
8.93. Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos
8.94. Samaje Perine, RB, Broncos
8.95. Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
8.96. Devon Achane, RB, Dolphins

Notes: The round starts with two quarterbacks in the first three picks, Prescott and Watson. For those who still want to wait on the position, that duo would be at the top of the list. Thomas is a huge risk because of his proneness to injury, but he’s worth a look at this point in the draft. Addison, the favorite to be the No. 2 wideout in Minnesota, is the first rookie receiver off the board. Achane is the first Dolphins runner to come off the board, ahead of Raheem Mostert, due to the PPR scoring system.

ROUND 9

9.97. George Pickens, WR, Steelers
9.98. Daniel Jones, QB, Giants
9.99. Kadarius Toney, WR, Chiefs
9.100. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers
9.101. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins
9.102. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Ravens
9.103. Gabe Davis, WR, Bills
9.104. Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens
9.105. Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings
9.106. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
9.107. Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans
9.108. Khalil Herbert, RB, Bears

Notes: The round begins with Pickens and the projected No. 1 fantasy wideout in Kansas City, Toney. Beckham is a ninth-rounder as a risk-reward No. 4 wideout, though his stock could rise a bit with some impressive reports from camp this summer. I do have OBJ ranked as the top Ravens wideout, even after the selection of rookie Zay Flowers. Speaking of rookies, Smith-Njigba is the second first-year receiver off the board. Mattison is a handcuff for Cook, and he could go higher if reports persist that Cook could be moved. 

ROUND 10

10.109. Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders
10.110. Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders
10.111. Rashaad Penny, RB, Eagles
10.112. Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers
10.113. Devin Singletary, RB, Texans
10.114. David Njoku, TE, Browns
10.115. Damien Harris, RB, Bills
10.116. Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers
10.117. Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers
10.118. Greg Dulcich, TE, Broncos
10.119. D'Onta Foreman, RB, Bears
10.120. Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers

Notes: Dotson, who showed flashes during his rookie season, is the first player off the board in the round. There are plenty of backfield handcuffs, too, including Penny and Mitchell . If you decide to wait on a tight end, borderline No. 1 options like Njoku and Dulcich will be your best options.

Total players drafted per position”
Quarterbacks: 12
Running Backs: 47
Wide Receivers: 49
Tight Ends: 12