Fantasy Breakouts: 5 Rookies Who Should Exceed Expectations in 2023

A combination of talent and circumstance puts these first-year players in position to make an impact.

We’re getting closer and closer to fantasy football draft season! Over the last few years, managers who’ve put a greater emphasis on grabbing rookies in their drafts have been rewarded with breakout stars and draft bargains the likes of Najee Harris, Kenneth Walker, Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson. Of course, a big part of that success is picking the right “big names” and avoiding those who fall into the bust category.

Also, the reality of this fantasy situation is that there are far more disappointments than rookies who blow up in the stat sheets. It’s not exactly finding a needle in the proverbial haystack, but knowing what to look for (depth charts, personnel, etc.) can help us avoid busts and hit on some rookies who make some real waves.

• SEE ALSO: Rookie Sleepers | Rookie Busts

In an effort to make some real middle- to late-round gains in our fantasy drafts, here’s my look at five rookies who could meet and exceed expectations in Year One.

Note: Players are listed based on current average draft position (ADP) data.

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Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons

Robinson will be the first player mentioned among rookies in the breakout category for 2023. In fact, it would be a shock if he didn’t break out on the same level as Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley before him. Robinson is a three-down back who can run, catch and pass protect, and he’s in an offense that loves to run the football. He’ll be a first-round selection in most fantasy redrafts. (Note: I took Robinson with the eighth pick in our SI Experts mock this week.)

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions

Expectations will be high for Gibbs, who surprisingly went No. 12 overall in the draft. He should see a significant role in Detroit after the trade of D’Andre Swift, especially as a pass catcher. That could make Gibbs a PPR dream, but he might not have an “elite” season with David Montgomery in the mix. Still, unless you are superstitious, Gibbs is in a good spot to produce as a No. 2 fantasy back.

Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts

Richardson isn’t what we would call “NFL ready,” but he did land in a good spot with the Colts. New head coach Shane Steichen should help the talented quarterback develop into a productive pro, and he could play sooner than later with only Gardner Minshew on the depth chart. With his mobile skill set, Richardson could put up solid numbers. He’s worth a middle- to late-round draft choice.

Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings

Addison landed in a great spot, as he’ll come right in and play the slot for Minnesota. Targets shouldn’t be a problem with the absence of Adam Thielen, as the Vikings will throw the football a ton under coach Kevin O’Connell. Remember, Kirk Cousins averaged almost 38 pass attempts per game in 2022. While he’s not a big wideout at 6’0” and 175 pounds, Addison is a serious playmaker.

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Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills

The Bills were projected to take a wideout in Round 1 of the draft but instead they took a tight end who plays like a receiver in Kincaid. I know that rookie tight ends typically don’t make a huge impact, but the Utah product could put up good enough numbers to be a matchup-based option. That might not equate to a true “breakout” season, but Kincaid is a very draftable asset for 2023