2023 Fantasy Football: Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson Among Top 6 Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

Five second-year pass catchers make the list.

The term “breakout” has different meanings for different people in the world of fantasy football. Some folks believe it’s simply a player who will outperform his draft position. Others think it’s an established player who emerges into a regular fantasy starter after never having reached that sort of status in the past.

In my opinion, both definitions are true but with a caveat. I don’t see a player as a breakout candidate if he’s already reached his “statistical ceiling” during his career. For example, Justin Herbert or Najee Harris aren’t “breakouts” to me. Is Herbert coming off a down year? Yes. But that doesn’t make him a breakout candidate. The same goes for Harris, who has been considered a top-10 pick in the past.

In my opinion, you can’t break out twice.

Could these players be labeled as bargains in 2023 fantasy drafts? Absolutely. But they’re certainly not considered “breakouts” based on my definition. I also consider some rookies to be breakouts, as these players could outperform or meet their draft position expectations without ever producing in the pros.

• Fantasy Breakouts: Quarterbacks | Running Backs

Another example of a breakout player is Josh Jacobs. He was very good in the stat sheets his first three seasons, but last year he broke out with career bests across the board. It was likely his “ceiling” season in fantasy leagues.

With that in mind, here’s six potential breakout wide receivers to target in fantasy drafts who could have career best seasons in 2023.

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Garrett Wilson, Jets

Wilson was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022, posting 1,103 yards and 215.7 fantasy points. That was with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White throwing him the football. Just imagine what he’ll do with future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers? While the Jets did add Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb, I still like Wilson to move into No. 1 fantasy wideout territory.

Chris Olave, Saints

Olave also had a solid rookie season, finishing as the WR25 on the strength of his 72 catches, 1,042 yards and 198.2 fantasy points. Much like Wilson, I think he can be better in 2023. The return of Michael Thomas could be a hindrance, but he’s been out of action for all but 10 games in the last three years. Don’t be surprised if Olave is Derek Carr’s top option and a high No. 2 fantasy wideout.

Marquise Brown, Cardinals

Brown has had some good but not great seasons between Baltimore and Arizona, but this could be the year he busts out. The Cardinals released DeAndre Hopkins, which leaves Brown as the team’s No. 1 wideout. In the first six games of last year, all without Hopkins, Brown was the WR5 and averaged 18.3 points. If he can avoid injuries, he could make some real noise in the stat sheets this season.

Christian Watson, Packers

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It was a tale of two seasons for Watson as a rookie, as he was waiver wire fodder in the first half before turning into a touchdown machine down the stretch. In fact, he was the WR9 over the final eight weeks of the fantasy season including the playoffs. Much depends on whether Jordan Love can be an effective passer, but Watson will be his top option in what will be a new-look offense.

Drake London, Falcons

London had a hot start to his rookie year, averaging more than 17.1 points a game. Things fell apart after that before averaging 14 points over his final five contests of 2023. The Falcons quarterback situation is a question mark, of course, as Desmond Ridder is slated to be their starter. Regardless, London figures to lead this team in targets among wide receiver in what should be an improved offense.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

Aiyuk has shown flashes of breakout potential at times, but he's not yet hit the big time from a fantasy standpoint. This could be the season he does just that. The talented wideout could lead the Niners in targets and catches, even with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in the mix, making him an attractive option as a No. 3 fantasy wideout who has top-15 upside in a best-case scenario.