The Replacements: Miles Sanders in Line for Hefty Workload with Panthers

Coming off his best season in the NFL, Miles Sanders signed with Carolina to take over as the lead back in a young, inexperienced running back room.

The Panthers have had a different leading rusher four years running and their offseason moves made sure that streak would extend to five consecutive seasons.

2019: Christian McCaffrey

2020: Mike Davis

2021: Chuba Hubbard

2022: D’Onta Foreman

2023: Miles Sanders…?

D’Onta Foreman left for Chicago after a career year in Carolina that saw him assume a larger role after the Christian McCaffrey trade. With Foreman and McCaffrey both gone, the front office turned to free agency to add a lead back and signed Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25-million deal. Sanders received the largest and longest commitment of any running back on the open market (so far) after he finished fifth in the league in rushing during his fourth year in Philadelphia.

Foreman toted the ball 203 times for 914 yards and McCaffrey went for 393 on 85 carries before he was dealt to the 49ers. In total, the Panthers’ 288 vacated running back carries are the third-most in the league, according to 4for4. That accounts for 69.3% of their total carries at the position, fifth-most in the NFL. So the vast majority of the running back work is there for the taking for Sanders, who’s joining a team with a new coaching staff, rookie quarterback and almost entirely new group of pass-catchers. His only meaningful competition is Chuba Hubbard, a 2021 fourth-round pick who led the team in rushing as a rookie but took a backseat in his second season.

Coach Frank Reich comes over from the Colts where his teams had an affinity for establishing the run. Carolina ran the ball on 49.49% of its plays last year, the fifth-highest rate in the league, and finished about league average in rushing efficiency in 2022. The Panthers are set to enter 2023 with the league’s 16th-best offensive line, per PPF, and re-signing center Bradley Bozeman means all five starting O-linemen from last season are back under contract.

Here’s how the Panthers' available carries will be distributed

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Miles Sanders

Last season was Sanders’ most durable campaign ever. He held up for all 17 games after missing nine over the previous two years. Running behind the Eagles’ league-best offensive line, Sanders set career-highs in carries (259), rushing yards (1,269) and rushing touchdowns (11) and finished in the top 10 in each category.

Sanders’ 837 yards before contact was second only to Justin Fields while his 3.2 yards before contact before attempt was tied for ninth-best in the NFL and tied for fourth among qualified running backs. He also saw his touchdowns regress to the mean and then some after he failed to score on any of his 137 carries the prior year.

It’s reasonable to think Sanders could field even more carries for the Panthers than he did in Philadelphia. The financial investment alone shows how much the front office values him and there’s already been talk that he could be a three-down back. Sanders also won’t be lining up alongside a dual-threat quarterback in the backfield anymore — Bryce Young is nowhere near the same threat to take off and run as Jalen Hurts.

Sanders averaged 15.2 carries per game last season for the Eagles. If that number were to tick up to 16 rushes he’d been in for over 270 attempts on the year, which is almost all of the vacated volume available in Carolina. However, it should be noted that Sanders has only logged 200-plus carries in a season once so durability is a fair question.

Photo credit: Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard’s workload was nearly cut in half in 2022. He had 172 carries as a rookie after he was thrust into the starting role once McCaffrey went down. Hubbard handled just 95 carries last season and his efficiency shot up from 3.6 yards per carry to 4.9 as he broke off just as many runs of 20-plus yards (three) as he did the previous year on 77 fewer attempts.

The decrease in carries also coincided with Hubbard missing two games due to an ankle sprain but it was primarily a result of McCaffrey and then Foreman being ahead of him on the depth chart. That will be the case again this year with Sanders’ arrival. Barring an injury, Hubbard is bound for no more than a pure backup role and he’s shown that his upside is limited even when tasked with a starting-level workload.

Panthers Rushing Attack Summary

The vast majority of the vacated volume in this ground attack will be funneled to Sanders. He’s the most experienced player in the room and he’s had more success than Hubbard, Raheem Blackshear and Spencer Brown combined. Sanders’ floor is 200 carries and he has the chance to see even more work. That should be more than enough opportunity for him to crack 1,000 yards once again, even in a lesser offense, But the touchdown production is another story considering 10 of Sanders’ 11 scores on the ground came on his 45 red zone rushes, the fourth-most in the league. It’s extremely unlikely he gets that many high-value chances next season as Foreman led the team with 32. Sanders is currently coming off the board at RB20 on the heels of his RB15 finish. He’ll have the chance to outperform his ADP with the Panthers, especially if he does end up in a three-down role.

Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI fantasy football series focused on vacated volume and projecting how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re looking at the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.

• The Replacements (Targets): Houston Texans | Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Tennessee Titans
• The Replacements (Carries): Philadelphia Eagles | Denver Broncos | Detroit Lions | Buffalo Bills | Minnesota Vikings