2023 Fantasy Football Predictions: One NFC South Running Back Is a Sleeper, the Other Is a Bust

Plus, a return to glory for the top fantasy back of 2021.

As the fantasy football draft season begins in earnest, we’ve asked all of SI Fantasy’s writers and editors to weigh in with their top picks in five key categories. First up: SI Senior Fantasy Analyst Michael Fabiano.

Top Sleeper: Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers

White is in prime position to outperform his middle-round average draft position, as the Buccaneers cut ties with Leonard Fournette in the offseason and didn’t replace him in the draft or free agency. Head coach Todd Bowles believes White can “become a complete, three-down back,” and it appears Tampa Bay will give him a chance to achieve that goal. He could emerge into a No. 2 fantasy runner.

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Top Bust: Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

Kamara has seen his fantasy stock decline in recent years, as his points per game total has fallen from 25.2 in 2020 down to 14.1 a season ago. That’s due in large part to a decline in his pass-catching chances, the absence of Drew Brees and a decline in his red-zone looks. Kamara has also been suspended three games, and the Saints added Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller in the offseason.

Top Rookie: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons

You all know I love me some Bijan. He’s a first-round pick in most redrafts, despite the fact he’s never played a single snap in the NFL. But if you look at the trend of recent running backs picked in the top 10 in the NFL draft, it’s a positive one. This year’s crop of rookies isn’t great from a fantasy standpoint, but Robinson is the clear leader. He’ll be a top-10 fantasy runner, and maybe even top-five, this season.

Comeback Player: Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars

Ridley hasn't played much football over the last few years due to NFL suspensions, but he's back and in a great position to rebound. Still in his prime and in an offense that should score a ton of points, Ridley is the favorite to lead the Jags in targets and become a prominent option for Trevor Lawrence. In fact, he's being picked in the fourth and fifth rounds at worst based on current ADP data.

Late-Round QB: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Prescott threw too many interceptions and made bad decisions last season, leaving a lot of fantasy managers with a bad taste in their mouths. But with head coach Mike McCarthy now calling the plays, the release of Ezekiel Elliott and the addition of a new No. 2 wideout in Brandin Cooks, I like Prescott to rebound. He’s coming off the board in the double-digit rounds, which makes Prescott a nice value.