Using Historical Fantasy Trends to Predict How Aaron Rodgers Will Fare With the Jets

Only a few veteran quarterbacks have switched teams late in their careers and produced big fantasy seasons.

Aaron Rodgers has long been one of the top quarterbacks not only in the National Football League, but in the world of fantasy football, too. He’s scored over 300 fantasy points in a season 10 times, including four seasons with more than 350. Rodgers has also thrown for 30 or more touchdowns eight times, and three of those campaigns saw him throw for at least 40. He’s also hit the 4,000-yard passing mark 10 times.

Of course, all of those seasons were with the Packers. And while he’ll still be wearing green this season, it’ll be the green of the Jets. It’s a very exciting time to be a fan of Gang Green, as Rodgers is the best quarterback -- at least since Joe Namath and maybe ever -- to lace up the cleats for the franchise. He could also end up being another in a long line of Jets quarterbacks who have sorely failed to meet statistical expectations.

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Believe it or not, the Jets haven’t had a single quarterback throw for 4,000 yards in the 16-game season era. The last (and only) field general to hit that mark is Namath … in 1967! Even Brett Favre, who played one season for the team in 2008, failed to throw for even 3,600 yards. That got me thinking: How have older players who had a lengthy stint with one team fare in their first year with a new franchise?

Here are 12 of the bigger names at the position who fit the bill, some of whom played before the rise of fantasy football and others who have been prominent in the last decade. In fact, six of the 12 quarterback examples are from the last three years.

Joe Montana, Chiefs (1993)

Montana averaged 15.7 fantasy points in his final full season with the 49ers (1992). He played just one game for the Niners the following season before going to Kansas City. That season, Montana threw just 13 touchdown passes and averaged fewer than 12 points a game. That’s a difference of almost four points.

Warren Moon, Vikings (1994)

Moon played seven seasons with the Houston Oilers before moving on to Minnesota in 1994 at the age of 38. His fantasy stats were very similar, posting 14.1 points per game in his first season with the Vikings. That was six-tenths of a point more than he averaged in his final season with the Oilers. So, Moon didn’t see his value altered.

Steve McNair, Ravens (2006)

McNair spent his first 11 seasons with the Oilers/Titans before playing his final two years in Baltimore. His statistical decline had begun a few years earlier, though, and he averaged just 12.9 points in his final season with the Titans. That total dropped to 11.1 in his first campaign with the Ravens before he retired after the 2007 season.

Brett Favre, Jets (2008)

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The most comparable to Rodgers since both went from Green Bay to New York late in their careers, Favre averaged 15.2 points in his final season with the Packers. The following year, he tossed 22 interceptions and averaged just 11.9 points per game. Notably, he played for the Vikings a year later and averaged 17.7 points.

Did the Curse of the Jets quarterback strike?

Donovan McNabb, Redskins (2010)

McNabb played 11 seasons with the Eagles and averaged 16.8 points in his final campaign with the franchise. He moved on to Washington, where he saw his points per game average drop 3.4 points to just 13.4. He also threw for a mere 14 touchdowns, and his 15 interceptions were the most he’s had in a single season.

Peyton Manning, Broncos (2012)

Manning missed his final season with the Colts due to an injured neck, so we’ll look at his final full year (2010), when he averaged 17.7 points. He went on to post even better totals in his first season with the Broncos, averaging 19.4 points. Manning had an even better season in 2013, with 55 touchdown passes and 410 fantasy points.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers (2020)

Brady played an historic 20 years with the Patriots before playing for the Buccaneers. He was actually better in his first season with his new team, posting an average of 21.1 points per game compared to the 16.5 he averaged in his final year in New England. His 337.9 fantasy points ranked eighth among quarterbacks.

Philip Rivers, Colts (2020)

Rivers played 16 seasons between San Diego and Los Angeles before ending his pro career in Indianapolis. He averaged 14.7 points in his final year with the Bolts at the age of 38, then moved on to the Colts. That year, Rivers threw 24 touchdowns and averaged 15 points per game in what would be his final season in the NFL.

Cam Newton, Patriots (2020)

Newton was a fantasy star for most of his career in Carolina, averaging more than 20 points in his final full season (2018) with the team. He missed most of the 2019 season due to injuries before moving on to New England, where he remained a startable asset. He did see a near three-point drop in points per game, though.

Matthew Stafford, Rams (2021)

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Stafford spent his first 12 seasons in Detroit, before being involved in a huge trade that landed him in Los Angeles at the age of 33. He saw an increase in his fantasy production, averaging 19.4 points in his first season with the Rams. That was 3.1 more fantasy points than Stafford averaged during his final run in the Motor City.

Russell Wilson, Broncos (2022)

A superstar in his first 10 seasons with the Seahawks, Wilson had long been a No. 1 fantasy quarterback in the Great Northwest. He did see a statistical decline in his first season there, however, averaging 17.3 points. Wilson was even worse in his first run in Denver, posting 19 touchdowns and averaging 15.1 points per game.

Matt Ryan, Colts (2022)

Ryan’s first 14 years in the league were spent with the Falcons, but he would finish his career with the Colts. The veteran had already started to see his numbers decline in 2021, when he averaged 13.1 points. He was two-tenths of a point worse in his first and only season in Indianapolis, where he was benched after 12 games.

So, what can we conclude from this fun run down memory lane? Well, seven of our quarterbacks saw a decline in stats in their first run with a new team. Two others saw negligible difference, and just three saw sizable increases (Brady, Manning and Stafford). That might not bode too well for Rodgers, who already has experienced a 6.8-point drop in his 2022 average compared to his MVP 2021 campaign.

Fantasy managers who might be a little superstitious, love trends or both should also keep in mind that stat about Jets quarterbacks. Again, only one has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in the franchise’s history. What’s more, Ryan Fitzpatrick (2015) is the lone Jets field general to score more than 243 points in a season.

Fitzpatrick is also the lone quarterback to throw for 30 touchdowns, and only five have thrown for more than 25 touchdowns in a season overall for Gang Green. These are mountainous trends for Rodgers to break, so don’t be too surprised if the future Hall of Famer looks more like a fantasy backup and less like a fantasy star.