Fantasy Football 2023: Top Rookies to Target

There are high expectations for Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, but he’s not the only first-year player that could make a fantasy impact.

Not many rookies make a major fantasy impact in their first NFL season. Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III finished as the RB18 last season, and he was the only rookie in the top 20 for any of the four major fantasy positions. Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson was just outside that group at WR21. Still, if you can find that rookie poised to make a splash, it would be a big plus for your fantasy prospects.

• 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

With that in mind, we polled our staff of experts and here are the rookies they predicted will have a fantasy impact:

Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons

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Michael Fabiano, SI Sr. Fantasy Analyst: You all know I love me some Bijan. He’s a first-round pick in most redrafts, despite the fact he’s never played a single snap in the NFL. But if you look at the trend of recent running backs picked in the top 10 in the NFL draft, it’s a positive one. This year’s crop of rookies isn’t great from a fantasy standpoint, but Robinson is the clear leader. He’ll be a top-10 fantasy runner, and maybe even top-five, this season.

Jennifer Piacenti, SI Fantasy/Betting Analyst: It’s hard to go away from Robinson here as the Falcons led the league with 559 rushing attempts in 2022. Furthermore, they rushed for the third-most yards per game with the fourth-best efficiency (4.86 Y/A). Now they have added the best running back prospect in the draft, using a top 10 selection. Robinson accumulated 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards and earned a 37% dominator rating, per Pro Football Focus, in his senior year at Texas. Arthur Smith’s offense should be very friendly to the talented rookie.

Kyle Wood, SI Fantasy/Betting Writer: Don’t overthink it. Robinson is well worth the hype and if he’s good enough for the Falcons at No. 8 — the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley in 2018 — he’s good enough for your fantasy team in the first round. Atlanta is going to establish the run and Robinson will be the biggest beneficiary. Oh, and he catches passes. There are other first-year players I like (Jordan Addison, Jahmyr Gibbs), but Robinson will finish well ahead of all of them.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions

Matt Verderame, SI NFL Writer: While the popular pick will be the Falcons' Bijan Robinson, give me Gibbs. The Lions have a prolific passing attack to back defenses off the line, along with one of the best fronts in the game.

Gibbs is electrifying in open space and there should be plenty to gobble up at Ford Field this year. 

Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens

Gilberto Manzano, SI NFL Writer: Running backs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are the obvious top two candidates, but don’t sleep on Flowers and how much the Ravens are counting on him to make an immediate impact. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens are looking to push the ball downfield. Flowers will have to compete with Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman for targets, but those two have struggled to stay healthy in recent years. Expect Lamar Jackson to look in Flowers’s direction often during his rookie season. 

Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts

Bill Enright: SI Fantasy/Betting Analyst: The Colts rookie has a cannon for an arm and out-of-this-world athletic ability. Even if his passing stats are mediocre, Richardson will make up for it with what he does on the ground and any shrewd fantasy manager knows a rushing QB = fantasy points galore. Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen orchestrated an offense for the Eagles last year that resulted in Jalen Hurts rushing for 13 touchdowns. Richardson is coming off the board in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts, making him an ideal candidate for anyone that subscribes to the draft-a-quarterback-late strategy. 

Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions

Craig Ellenport, SI Fantasy/Betting Sr. Editor: Both first-round running backs, Bijan Robinson in Atlanta and Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit, could be great – but neither will be a workhorse back and so they might not post huge fantasy numbers. LaPorta has a chance to post solid numbers for his position. Even after the Lions traded T.J. Hockenson last season, they looked to their tight ends in the red zone. With a former tight end as head coach, expect that trend to continue and expect LaPorta to be the main target.