2023 Fantasy Football Predictions: A Surprising Sleeper and a Pro Bowl Bust

Plus, a Super Bowl-winning quarterback to make a fantasy comeback.

Next up for SI Fantasy’s 2023 staff predictions is Jennifer Piacenti.

Top Sleeper: Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions

 If you’re waiting on TE, rookie Sam LaPorta is your guy. He was an early second-round pick for the Lions, and he should see targets immediately. Don’t forget, Jameson Williams starts the season with a six-game suspension for violating the league’s gambling rules. Goff has to get the ball to someone other than Amon-Ra St Brown, too, and we saw TJ Hockenson be productive in this offense before he was traded last season. La Porta has the pedigree and the opportunity to end up a Top 12 TE at the position.

Top Bust: Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders

I have concerns about Josh Jacobs being able to live up to his draft day value. Last season, Jacobs was an absolute beast and the best draft day value on the board, but there is reason to be skeptical that it can be repeated. First, Jimmy Garoppolo is not the kind of quarterback Derek Carr was. Say what you will about Carr, but he could still air it out. Jimmy G is an accurate passer and a good game manager who has never thrown for 4,000 yards in a single season. He also may have a lingering foot issue. With no Darren Waller, defenses can plan to stack the box vs. Jacobs. Add to that the rumors of Jacobs possibly holding out and the fact last season was the only season where he has remained healthy for all 17 games, and I have concerns about last year’s leading rusher doing it again in 2023.

Top Rookie: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons

It’s hard to go away from Robinson here as the Falcons led the league with 559 rushing attempts in 2022. Furthermore, they rushed for the third-most yards per game with the fourth-best efficiency (4.86 Y/A). Now they have added the best running back prospect in the draft, using a top 10 selection. Robinson accumulated 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards and earned a 37% dominator rating, per Pro Football Focus, in his senior year at Texas. Arthur Smith’s offense should be very friendly to the talented rookie.

• 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

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Comeback Player: Russell Wilson, QB, Broncos

Wilson will be the Comeback Player of the Year. Coming off a career-worst 2022 season, Sean Payton’s offense should work well for Wilson, who has the mobility to move in and out of the pocket. Wilson remains one of the top deep-ball passers in the league despite the lackluster 2022 season, and a vastly improved offensive line puts Wilson in a much better spot.

Late-Round QB: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Jets

Aaron Rodgers is coming off the board as the QB17, and I am taking that pick all day, every day. A change of scenery already looks good on Rodgers who got a haircut and has been seen at Knicks games with Sauce Gardner. The four-time MVP also has a clear WR1 again in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, in addition to having veterans Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb now in New York. The threat of Breece Hall in the running game will keep defenses guessing, and Rodgers, the fantasy QB5 in 2021 and the fantasy QB2 in 2020, will exceed his 2023 draft day ADP.