2023 Fantasy Football Predictions: Stats Point to Najee Harris Being a Fantasy Bust

Plus, big expectations for Deebo Samuel and Christian Watson.

Next up for SI Fantasy’s 2023 staff predictions is SI NFL writer Gilberto Manzano.

Top Sleeper: Christian Watson, WR, Packers

Many are overlooking the Packers because Aaron Rodgers is gone and Jordan Love is the new inexperienced starting quarterback. But that shouldn’t affect Watson, who already displayed chemistry with Love after the two connected for a 63-yard catch-and-run touchdown last season versus the Eagles. The 6'5", 208-pound Watson is poised for a breakout second season after producing 523 yards and seven touchdowns in the final eight games of 2022. With his sizable catch radius, Love will likely target Watson often as his No. 1 target.

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Top Bust: Najee Harris, RB, Steelers

Many are pointing the finger at the Steelers’ poor run blocking for Harris’s disappointing 2022 season, but it’s concerning that Harris has averaged under four yards per carry in each of his first two seasons, with a career average of 3.9. He’s a physical runner who can also contribute in the passing game, but plenty needs to go right for Harris to make an impact. Also, are we convinced that second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett will provide enough balance to keep opposing defenses guessing? That’s not a given based on Pickett’s subpar rookie season. As for the offensive line, the Steelers added guard Isaac Seumalo, but that might not be enough with a shaky right side and a rookie left tackle in Broderick Jones.

• 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Top Rookie: Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens

Running backs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are the obvious top two candidates, but don’t sleep on Flowers and how much the Ravens are counting on him to make an immediate impact. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens are looking to push the ball downfield. Flowers will have to compete with Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman for targets, but those two have struggled to stay healthy in recent years. Expect Lamar Jackson to look in Flowers’s direction often during his rookie season.

Comeback Player: Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers

Samuel is a good bet for a bounce-back season because he can rack up yards in multiple ways and has a coaching staff that knows how to get him the ball in space. It’s also good news that quarterback Brock Purdy is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a throwing arm injury and could be ready to go for the start of the season. Look for Samuel to return to what he did in his All-Pro 2021 season, when he had 77 catches for 1,405 yards along with 365 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns. Many were disappointed last season with Samuel’s 632 receiving yards, 232 rushing yards and five total touchdowns.

Late-Round QB: Anthony Richardson, Colts, QB

If you find yourself with a reliable veteran quarterback earlier in the draft, and you’re comfortable with your overall roster, take a chance on Richardson’s upside. Even if he struggles as a passer in his rookie season, he’ll likely churn out yards on the ground and could be a goal-line touchdown machine because of his massive 6'4", 232-pound frame. Richardson has drawn comparisons to Cam Newton, who had a memorable rookie year in 2011 with 4,051 passing yards, 706 rushing yards and 35 total touchdowns.