Predicting Which Second-Year Quarterback Will Be a Fantasy Breakout

We looked back at seven recent sophomore performances to get an idea of what to expect from four 2022 rookie passers.

Fantasy managers are always looking for the next big thing, mostly in the form of a potential sleeper or breakout candidate. Imagine drafting Jalen Hurts last season and getting one of the three best players at his position thanks to his bust out campaign. Trust me, those who drafted Jalen made it “Hurt So Good!”

(I know, bad dad joke).

Well, we’ve seen a trend over the last few years among quarterbacks that could help you find a bargain this season. Since 2015, at least one second-year quarterback has exceeded expectations and become a steal in drafts. Wild, right? But it’s true.

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So, let’s take a trip down fantasy memory lane and see what we find that can help us pick the right second-year field general who’ll bust out this season.

Blake Bortles, Jaguars (2015)
The “Garbage Time King” as he was known, Bortles saw his points-per-game total increase 7.8 points compared to his rookie season. He finished fourth in all, scoring 316.1 fantasy points. This would be his best year in both real and fantasy football, though, as Bortles saw his points decline in his final four years.

Carson Wentz, Eagles (2017)
Wentz went off in 2017, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game as a sophomore. That was up more than eight points compared to his rookie totals. Unfortunately for Wentz, he got hurt after 13 games, but he still finished fifth in points among quarterbacks. Like Bortles, this would also be Wentz’s best fantasy season.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (2018)
Mahomes’ situation was different from that of Bortles and Wentz in that he sat as a rookie behind Alex Smith. He went on to produce his best fantasy season in Year 2, with 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns strikes. In all, Mahomes averaged 26.1 points and was the top quarterback in fantasy football.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens (2019)
Jackson started seven games as a rookie, averaging 9.9 points. Like the four other quarterbacks, however, he had his best fantasy season as an NFL sophomore with 43 total touchdowns, over 1,206 rushing yards and 415.7 points. Oddly, Jackson’s points have declined in each of the following three years.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (2020)
Murray busted out in the stat sheets as an NFL sophomore, scoring 23.7 points on the strength of his 37 total touchdowns. That was almost six more points than he averaged during his rookie campaign. Murray was also good in his third season, but his fantasy points have now dropped in consecutive years.

Joe Burrow, Bengals (2021)
Burrow posted decent numbers as a rookie, averaging 17.4 points per game before going down with a torn ACL. The LSU product busted out the following year, as he scored 314.2 points and finished eighth in points. Unlike the other quarterbacks in this research, Burrow was even better in his third season.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (2022)
Lawrence endured a dreadful rookie season, in part due to the mess that was Urban Meyer, but he rebounded in Year 2 with 295.6 points. His average jumped nearly six points per game, too. Most fantasy analysts believe Lawrence will be even better in his third season, but of course that remains to be seen.

What We Found

Alright, so what can we assert from this trend and the players involved? For one, the jump in points as a sophomore from those who actually played as a rookie is around six per game. In fact, only Burrow saw a jump of less than 5.7 points. Jackson and Mahomes saw much bigger leaps, but they didn’t start the majority of their games as rookies (or any in the case of Mahomes, who was behind Smith).

The other trend we found is that among these quarterbacks, their second year was or has been to this point their best season from a fantasy perspective. Bortles saw his points decline in each of the following four years, and Jackson’s have dropped in three straight. Murray’s points have dropped in two straight seasons, and Wentz was never able to recapture the statistical magic he created as a sophomore.

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Who’ll Break Out in 2023?

The most obvious choices to outperform expectations or bust out this season are Kenny Pickett, Brock Purdy, Sam Howell or Desmond Ridder. They’re all entering their second seasons as the projected starters for their respective teams, so they’ll obviously have a chance to make some noise in the stat sheets.

Purdy might be the first pick of analysts, as he was the best rookie among 2022 quarterbacks. For me, I’m looking at Pickett. He did have his struggles in Year 1, but that’s not abnormal for rookie signal-callers. I like him to improve as a passer, especially after the Steelers added Allen Robinson. He’ll also have better protection from his line, including rookie Broderick Jones.

Pickett can also run with the football, rushing for 237 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games (12 starts). I can see him pushing for 350-400 yards on the ground, not to mention around four rushing scores. If we project a 5- to 6-point jump from his rookie totals, Pickett will average around 17 fantasy points a game. That would be right around what we saw from Lawrence in his second NFL season.

No matter who it might be, whether it’s Purdy, Pickett, Howell or Ridder, one thing seems likely … a second-year quarterback will likely make a big jump this season. That makes this quartet well worth targeting in the late rounds of 2023 drafts.