Broncos on Verge of Tanking Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton's 2024 Fantasy Outlook

Jason Schandl | Apr 22, 2024

Dec 16, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) is tackled / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Some NFL franchises are perennially laughing stocks of the league. But for years the Denver Broncos have been a well-respected unit. That has all changed with the way the quarterback situation has been handled in the Sean Payton era.

Last year's Russell Wilson mess culminated in his departure, and everyone has been assuming the Broncos will be players for a top quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft. But the Broncos' moves aren't exactly forecasting a high draft pick.

With Stidham and his $10 million contract still in the room and Ben DiNucci his only competition, the Broncos did add another QB during draft week. Only this addition wasn't a star.

🚨 🚨 🚨

Former #Jets starting QB and No. 2 pick Zach Wilson is on the move. Sources say he’s being traded to the #Broncos, hoping for a fresh start.

The deal includes a late-round pick swap (6th for a 7th) and NYJ will pay some of Wilson’s roughly $5.5M salary. pic.twitter.com/7Y1KShZ3sg

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 22, 2024

Suddenly it looks like the Broncos might be serious about Stidham as their full-time starter, and that's bad news for anyone who has been hoping to draft Javonte Williams or Courtland Sutton.

Can Courtland Sutton Thrive With Jarret Stidham?

Sutton only played in one of Stidham's two starts, and he was banged up, so he didn't even play half of the Broncos' offensive snaps. So we can't look at any direct numbers for the pair together. What we can see, however, is how much quarterback play like Stidham's can affect Sutton.

Stidham has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (eight each) in his NFL career, and he has a putrid average of 5.10 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. For context, that mark would have ranked 28th (one spot behind Kenny Pickett and one ahead of Josh Dobbs) for No. 28 among qualifying quarterbacks in 2023.

As a fourth-year pro, it's not like he showed any serious progression past that point with the Broncos either. They're keeping him around despite the poor play that earned him just a 55.5 grade from Pro Football Focus last season.

Sutton is a great wideout, but he's not great enough that he can elevate a quarterback. He was the WR43 in PPR scoring in 2022 (when Russell Wilson struggled) and the WR44 in 2021 (with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock at the helm). That's compared to WR21 through 15 healthy weeks playing with Wilson last year.

His current Average Draft Position (ADP) of WR42 (per FantasyPros) would make him a sneaky value if the Broncos made a splash and traded up for a top rookie, but would be way too early to select him if Stidham is really the Broncos' Plan A.

How Bad Quarterback Play Would Affect Javonte Williams

And how about Williams, who is going off the board even earlier as the RB24 (and 71st player overall)? Stidham throwing the ball to Williams 12 times across his two starts has to be a good sign, right?

I wouldn't be too sold on that idea.

Stidham stepped in with what we can only assume was a limited playbook as the Broncos closed out the year trying to get a look at their potential future signal-caller. He's not generally been a huge check-down guy, having averaged 7.9 and 8.1 yards as his average depth of target over the past two seasons. For context only 10 qualifying passers averaged over 8.1 last season and 20 averaged fewer than 7.9.

High reception totals in a failing offense is also not exactly a recipe for fantasy football upside. It can help a running back's floor (especially in PPR leagues), but when an offensive isn't clicking the negatives are much more significant: there are fewer snaps available in general, a back can get ignored when a team playing catch-up needs to push the ball down the field, and opportunities for touchdowns tend to be very limited.

The Broncos' regular season win total is set at over/under 5.5 wins (+120 odds on the under) already, and spending a premium draft pick on a running back in a bad offense is not generally where you want to be. That's doubly true when that running back only played even 50% of his team's offensive snaps six times last season.

Sutton and Williams' fantasy football values are already looking shaky this season, and the Broncos refusing to upgrade at quarterback would completely tank them.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.