Quarterbacks Who Could Be Fantasy Football Busts in 2024

Fantasy expert Michael Fabiano with his QB picks to avoid this year.

Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws against the Denver Broncos during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Players to Beware: Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends

Bust. It’s the dirtiest four-letter word in fantasy football. Avoiding these players is vital to building a strong roster. It’s also difficult to find a lot of them at quarterback.

Why?

Well, the position simply doesn’t warrant a ton of attention in the first five rounds of most drafts. Based on average draft position data, five field generals are being taken in the top 50 picks. That’s not much. It’s more of a value position, where guys like Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy and Jared Goff will be on the board outside of the top 80 picks. They all averaged 17-plus points per game last season, and Prescott averaged more than 20 points for fantasy managers!

That’s a bargain, right?

So, the players I list as “busts” (or those to avoid in prominent fantasy roles) are big names who I believe will have more “name” value than fantasy value. With that in mind, here are four quarterbacks to avoid with your valuable draft capital.

1. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Has there been a quarterback whose draft value has fallen more than Herbert? He lost Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett in the offseason, and his new coach, Jim Harbaugh, likes to use a run-based offense. Herbert, who averaged 18.1 points per game last season, could struggle to hit that mark in 2024. I’d draft him as more of a high-end No. 2 option.

2. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa finished as the QB11 last season, but that’s deceptive when we look deeper into the numbers. He scored 19-plus points just five times, and Tua was held to fewer than 15 points in nine of his 17 starts (53%). He was particularly unreliable on the road, scoring fewer than 15 points in six of his eight starts. The Miami quarterback also has one of the toughest schedules for 2024.

3. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence was expected to have his breakout season in 2023, but that didn’t happen. He did finish a respectable 12th in fantasy points among quarterbacks, but Lawrence was also held under 16 points in nearly half of his games. He’ll also have to gain a rapport with new receivers like rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if his numbers don’t improve.

4. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Rodgers missed most of last season after tearing his Achilles after four snaps, but he’s on track to be ready for Week 1. The question is, can he regain his high-end fantasy status? I have my doubts, as he’s 40 years old and coming off a serious injury. Rodgers could also be part of a long and unbelievable trend of Jets quarterbacks failing to meet expectations. I’ll be fading the veteran.