On the Mend: Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Outlook and Injury Update

Can Rodgers return fantasy football value after missing last year with injury?

Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers walks on the field prior to the game against the Miami Dolphins Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Though not yet officially cleared for full contact, Aaron Rodgers had been participating in Jets OTAs with no restrictions, though he missed Jets mandatory minicamp today with an unexcused absence.

After tearing his Achilles in just his fourth offensive snap for the Jets last season, New York fans hope to get the quarterback play they traded for in 2023. 

Rodgers, now 40 years old, spent all of 2023 rehabbing from the injury to his right Achilles. The good news for Rodgers is the injury occurred to his lead/plant food, not his power/drive foot. If he loses any velocity this season, it is just as likely due to age as to injury. 

New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers during the 2023 season opener. / Danielle Parhizkaran / USA TODAY NETWORK

Aaron Rodgers already had a late-career comeback with the Packers under coach Matt LaFleur and OC Nathaniel Hackett, winning consecutive NFL MVP awards in the 2020 and 2021 seasons.  Then, in 2022, after losing WR Davante Adams to the Raiders and Hackett to the Broncos, Rodgers showed significant regression, throwing a career-high 12 interceptions and passing for 26 touchdowns and a career-low 217 passing yards per game.  

The table has been set for Rodgers in New York as he reunites with Hackett, who is also looking for a bounce-back season. Rodgers will have a clear WR1 in Garrett Wilson, who was able to amass more than 1,000 receiving yards with inconsistent quarterback play from some combination of Zach Wilson, Trevor Semien, and Tim Boyle in 2023. Wilson led the league with a 45.8% air yards share in 2023, and if he remains Rodgers's favorite target, the ceiling is tremendous.  

Rodgers also will have the threat of a potent run game led by Breece Hall, which should open up the passing game even more for the veteran passer. However, it's worth noting that the Jets' stellar defense may reduce the number of shootouts for Gang Green. 

It's hard to bet on an aging quarterback who just took a year off for injury at age 40. But a four-time MVP with much to prove may be worth the risk. Rodgers is best left on waivers in one-quarterback leagues, but I'll grab him late for my Superflex bye weeks.