Bijan Robinson Might Be Fantasy Football's Biggest Bust So Far

Michael Fabiano | Oct 4, 2024

Oct 3, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (9) during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons played in what was the best game of the 2024 season, both in terms of real and fantasy football, on Thursday night. The Falcons erased a late deficit, sent the game to overtime, and ultimately won in the extra period, 36-30. The two teams combined for 883 total yards and scored a boatload of fantasy points.

Kirk Cousins threw for a career-high 509 yards (he averaged 216 passing yards in his first four games), tossed 4 touchdown passes and scored 34.4 points. Baker Mayfield, one of the top fantasy quarterbacks this season, threw for three scores and posted 23.4 points.

The Falcons top two wide receivers, Drake London and Darnell Mooney, had a combined 21 catches for 259 yards with three touchdowns. London scored 33.4 points, and Mooney had 31.5 points. The Buccaneers also saw Mike Evans score twice and post 23.2 points.

Heck, even Kyle Pitts, who scored zero fantasy points last week, had 15.8 points.

Unfortunately, even with fantasy points being handed out like candy on Halloween, Bijan Robinson wasn’t part of the excitement. While he averaged a stout 5.1 yards per rush, he was held to just 12 carries, 77 total yards and 10.7 points. That has continued what has to be a disturbing trend for the second-year running back … his numbers just aren’t great.

Despite being the third back picked in fantasy drafts (ADP 4.7 overall), he is averaging 13.5 fantasy points after five weeks. Currently, that makes him the RB22 behind Zack Moss, J.K. Dobbins, Chuba Hubbard and Brian Robinson Jr.

When you consider where Robinson was picked, and the fact that the top runners are averaging over 20 points per game, it’s safe to say Robinson is on his way to that not-so-nice place we like to call “Bustville.”

So, what’s gone wrong with Robinson?

Despite averaging 47.8 snaps per game, he's tied for 20th in touches per game (17.0), and he’s 20th in fantasy points per touch among runners with at least 50 touches (0.80). The top backs, like Saquan Barkley and Alvin Kamara, are averaging over a full point per touch.  

There’s more bad news.

According to NextGenStats, Robinson is 32nd in the NFL in Rushing Yards Over Expected. He’s 65th in Rush Expected Points Added. He’s 35th in both Yards After Contact Per Rush and Rush Success Rate. We can’t blame defenses stacking the box against Robinson for his lack of production either, as he’s 30th among running backs in Stacked Box Rate.

Of course, the elephant in the room is the presence of Tyler Allgeier. A former 1,000-yard runner, he’s part of the reason for Robinson’s failure to rise to elite status this season because of his role in the team's backfield. After five weeks, Robinson is seeing 37.4% of the Falcons’ backfield touches.

By comparison, let’s look at the current top five fantasy running backs and their usage.

Kamara has seen 46.2% of the backfield touches in New Orleans. Barkley is at 40.5% in Philadelphia. Derrick Henry is at 40.3% in Baltimore. Kyren Williams is at 46.7% in Los Angeles, and Jordan Mason is at 45.5% for the 49ers. Among those five backfields, the Ravens are the only team with another back who has seen more than 6% of the touches (Justice Hill – 14.2%).

Meanwhile, Allgeier has seen 17.2% of the Atlanta backfield touches. He’s also seen seven of the team’s 17 red-zone looks, which means Robinson is no guarantee to get those vital goal-line carries.  

What might surprise you is that Allgeier’s totals in those categories are significantly down compared to the first five games of last season. In that time, he had a 27% backfield share and 11 red-zone looks. Robinson was at 34.9% and eight, respectively.

So, the Falcons’ new coaching regime has given Robinson more of a featured role than he had seen at this time last season. The problem? He’s still not seeing enough touches in the offense, and he’s not been very effective with the touches he has received to this point. The stats above tell the story.

I know this isn’t the sort of thing fantasy managers who sunk a high first-round pick into him want to hear, but if these sorts of stats and trends continue, Robinson is very unlikely to be worth his average draft position (ADP). So, if you’re so inclined and can still get good trade value for him, it might be time to think about jumping off the Bijan bandwagon now.