Bijan Robinson Fantasy Outlook: The Case for RB1

Robinson could be a fantasy star this year.

Jun 3, 2024; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) shown on the field during Falcons OTA at the Falcons Training facility. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

With the addition of Kirk Cousins at quarterback and a new coaching staff in Atlanta, Bijan Robinson has a chance at finishing as the RB1 for the 2024 fantasy season.

That's right. I am buying into the Bijan Breakout. 

Here's why you should not be afraid to take the Falcons runner early in the first round. 

Bijan Robinson Fantasy Projection

Atlanta struggled for the last few seasons with Arthur Smith as head coach. Though Smith heavily emphasized the run game (the Falcons averaged 127 rushing yards per game, which ranked 9th in 2023), he did not emphasize the talented RB from the University of Texas enough. He often ceded more meaningful touches to the far less efficient Tyler Allgeier.

Robinson's usage was inconsistent, to put it kindly. Fantasy managers surely remember the "headache game" as just one example.

Robinson out-carried Allgeier last season, but not by a large margin, and his efficiency numbers were not that impressive with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinecke at quarterback.

New head coach Raheem Morris has already vowed to change that saying his offensive plan was, "in the simplest form you can put it, get the ball to Bijan as much as possible in the most ideal situations as possible."

That's an encouraging sign for Robinson, who finished as the RB9 in PPR leagues in 2023 despite the inconsistent usage. 

Robinson averaged 5.1 targets per game in 2023, ranking fifth among RBs, just behind Christian McCaffrey (5.2). His 487 receiving yards ranked fourth amongst RBs despite often dealing with less catchable passes. Expect all of those numbers to get a boost with Cousins at the helm. 

Tyler Allegeier will still be involved in this offense, but the potential is tremendous if Robinson can add a few more meaningful touches. New OC Zac Robinson, who comes to Atlanta from the Rams, should add more explosiveness to this offense. 

Robinson's 4.56 yards per attempt last season were slightly more efficient than Breece Hall's 4.46. Both runners get an upgrade at quarterback and are running behind a top offensive line this season.