Fantasy Football Draft Value: Dalton Kincaid, Christian Kirk Are Winners Based on ADP

These players offer value in fantasy football drafts.

Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid eyes in a pass during the opening day of Buffalo Bills training camp. / Shawn Dowd/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

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If you’re playing fantasy football, you’ve probably heard of ADP or “average draft position.” For those who don’t know, ADP is exactly what it sounds like … it’s the average draft spot where a player is being picked. Based on this information, we can decipher player values and form a game plan for when and where to target them in drafts.

For this exercise, I looked at data to find the players who appeared to be, in my opinion, the best bargains. I chose ESPN because their default scoring system is full-point PPR. While these ADPs won’t be the same on every platform (you’ll notice a big difference in high-stakes leagues), this is a good way to pick out potential values in your drafts.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills (ADP – 64.4): Kincaid is easily one of my favorite breakout candidates. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer on the roster, he has a chance to be one of (if not the most) targeted players in the Bills offense. With the potential to be a top-three player at his position, I’ll gladly target him in the sixth round of 10- and 12-team leagues.

Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (ADP – 88.8): I like to wait on quarterbacks, and Murray will be someone I’m targeting based on his ADP. While I like him more in a 10-teamer, where he’s a ninth-rounder, I can also get on board with drafting him in the eighth in a 12-team format. I expect Murray to push for a top-10 finish among fantasy quarterbacks in 2024.

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers (ADP – 93.9): Harris’ stock has fallen to the point where he’s being picked behind his teammate, Jaylen Warren, in many PPR drafts. But has he fallen too far? I think so, especially if I’m going heavy wide receiver or using Zero-RB in the first five rounds. Harris should still see 275-plus touches, so I’ll gladly grab him in Round 9.

Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars (ADP – 98.8): There are times when I think ESPN’s ADP data is drunk, and this is one of them. I can’t see Kirk being available this late in any draft, but his ADP over at the worldwide leader has him on the board in the eighth or ninth rounds. That’s bananas! By comparison, Kirk’s ADP over at the NFFC is a much more realistic 52.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk (13) on the field on the fifth day of the NFL football training camp practice session Monday, July 29, 2024 at EverBank Stadium's Miller Electric Center in Jacksonville, Fla.. [Bob Self/Florida Times-Union] / Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys (ADP – 99.5): Am I being a Cowboys homer? Sometimes. But not in this case. The fact of the matter is that their offense has historically produced good fantasy tight ends, and Ferguson was the latest last season. He was the TE9 in a breakout 2023 campaign, and Dallas did nothing to affect his target share in 2024. I’ll be targeting Ferguson heavily in drafts.

Jayden Reed, WR, Packers (ADP – 99.6): Sometimes I’m higher on a player than the rest of the industry. This season, Reed is one of those players. Despite being a league winner in his rookie year, he’s still on draft boards into the sixth or seventh round at the NFFC. ESPN has him as a ninth-rounder, at which point drafting Reed is basically like stealing.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins (ADP – 102.0): No one will argue that Mostert isn't going to see major touchdown regression. I get it. But should that decrease his value down to that of a ninth or 10th rounder? That’s a precipitous fall. Is there risk with Mostert? Some might say yes. But at this point, when he can be drafted as an RB3 or RB4, he’s worth the risk.

Zack Moss, RB, Bengals (ADP – 103.1): Moss is another player I might be higher on than a lot of people. Now the featured back in Cincinnati, I can see him putting up career totals. Remember, he ranked third in PPR points among runners from Weeks 2-6 before Jonathan Taylor re-claimed a prominent role in Indianapolis. Getting Moss as a flex is attractive.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers (ADP – 118.1): McConkey has a shot to be the top wide receiver in the Chargers offense as a rookie, yet he’s still on the board into the double-digit rounds based on ESPN’s ADP. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams gone, the Bolts have almost 20 open targets per game. I like McConkey to absorb a good portion of them.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders (ADP – 120.9): I love Daniels this season. Give me a rookie quarterback who can run, and I’ll give you a potential fantasy breakout player. So, when I see him being drafted in the double-digit rounds, excuse me if my eyes get wide as I hit the “draft” button. I can see Daniels posting top-10 quarterback totals in 2024.