Fantasy Football Fallers Based on Average Draft Position

Michael Fabiano | Aug 23, 2024

Sep 24, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller (25) during warmups prior to the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports / Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

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With training camps in full swing around the NFL, fantasy fans now have a clear look at how all 32 NFL teams stack up in terms of personnel and depth-chart battles. As a result, data from average draft position (ADP) is increasingly more valuable. After all, draft season is almost here! With that said, let’s look at ADPs at the moment and examine which player’s values have risen in recent weeks.

These players aren’t superstars like Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill, but rather those who have either begun to descend draft boards or players who are no longer being picked. The reasons are due to news out of training camps and injury updates, underperforming or projecting to fall in-depth chart battles.

Here are eight of the most notable ADP fallers for you to keep in mind in drafts.

Tyler Higbee, TE, Rams (ADP – 62.5): Higbee has started training camp on the active/PUP list due to the knee injury he suffered late last season. That doesn’t mean he can’t come off the list during camp, but Higbee could also be in danger of being moved to the reserve/PUP list and miss at least the first four weeks of the regular season. He’s a late flier at best.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, Patriots (ADP – 43.4): Bourne has begun Patriots training camp on the active/PUP list as he continues to recover from a torn ACL. There have been reports suggesting he’ll be back in time for the start of the regular season, but missing time isn’t going to endear him to fantasy managers looking for a late flier. At this point, Ja’Lynn Polk, Demario Douglas and Javon Baker are the most attractive options late in drafts.

Isaac Guerendo, RB, 49ers (-34.7): Guerendo was expected to compete for a potential handcuff role behind Christian McCaffrey during camp, but he injured a hamstring and might have a tougher time passing Elijah Mitchell on the depth chart. Reports now suggest he'll miss several weeks of action, so the rookie is less attractive in drafts.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers (ADP – 28.5): The Packers placed Kratt on the active/PUP list due to an injured pectoral muscle, which is the reason for his ADP fall. His absence will hinder his chances of unseating Luke Musgrave atop the tight end depth chart, making Kraft less attractive even as a late-round flier.

AJ Dillon, RB, Packers (ADP – 26.8): The fact that Dillon is an ADP faller is a surprise, as rookie MarShawn Lloyd is dealing with a hip injury early in camp. Packers coach Matt LaFleur also praised Dillon for being in great shape. Still, the fantasy community remains steadfast in its belief that Lloyd, who should return soon, will be the No. 2 option on the running back depth chart behind starter Josh Jacobs. Dillon isn’t draftable, for now.

Jun 11, 2024; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon (28) does a drill at minicamp. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports / Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Kendre Miller, RB, Saints (ADP – 25.8): Miller had been considered a deep sleeper pick in fantasy leagues, but the injured hamstring he suffered in camp has his stock dropping. In fact, Jamaal Williams (ADP +38.5) has seen his value rise as a result of Miller’s absence. Ultimately, the severity of his injury will determine if Miller is even draftable in 2024.

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Dolphins (ADP – 21.3): OBJ began Dolphins training camp on the active/PUP list due to an undisclosed injury, which is the reason for his slight fall in ADP. There’s no reason to believe he’ll miss extended time, however, so I wouldn’t drop the one-time fantasy superstar in my rankings. Still, he’s worth no more than a late-rounder.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers (ADP – 17.3): Johnston has started training camp behind DJ Chark, so his stock has taken a hit. This could be a motivational tactic by new coach Jim Harbaugh to motivate the second-year wideout, but I’m still not targeting him in drafts. With Ladd McConkey and Joshua Palmer seemingly locked into starting roles and Johnston not looking great as a rookie, I’m likely to pass on Johnston in most fantasy drafts.