Fantasy Football Impact on Evan Engram, Trevor Lawrence With Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr. Injured

Brian Giuffra | Oct 28, 2024

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (right) would be without top WR receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (left), which has a big impact in fantasy football. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Jaguars, while a bad football team, were suddenly becoming relevant in the fantasy football space over the last few weeks as Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., and Even Engram spearheaded an offense finding its football and putting points up in matchups across leagues. 

Now, with Kirk out for the season with a broken collarbone and Thomas potentially missing time with a chest/rib injury, the roles, and potency, of the Jaguars have been diminished on the field and in the fantasy world. 

That doesn’t mean it’s bad news for everyone. 

Thomas is expected to be out for 2-4 weeks with his injury according to Jeremy Fowler, meaning target share for Engram should increase. He was targeted 10 times in his return from injury against the Bears in Week 3 but has only seen 10 targets in the two weeks since. Expect those numbers to pick up if Lawrence’s top two wide receivers are out of the lineup for the next few weeks. 

Evan Engram's per-game averages in 6 outings without Christian Kirk last year:

10.2 targets (25.1% share)
8.3 catches
73.2 yards
0.7 TDs

Scored 19.5 more PPR points than any other TE over that stretch.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 28, 2024

Engram had 143 targets last year (8.4 per game) and made 114 catches (6.3 per game). As the most trusted pass catcher left for Lawrence, he’ll be the primary receiving option for the Jaguars with Kirk out and Thomas potentially missing time.

There's also this:

Evan Engram did not record a single end zone target or TD until Christian Kirk (collarbone) was injured in Week 13 last year, and scored his first TD of this season with Kirk injured in the 4Q.

Wheels up from here.

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 28, 2024

Running back Travis Etienne, a fantasy bust this year, should also see an increase in the passing game. He’s better at catching balls out of the backfield than Tank Bigsby and, if he returns from a hamstring injury that kept him out last week, should be involved heavily on offense. 

Gabe Davis has been a massive disappointment for the Jags since signing this offseason as a free agent, but he will be the top big-play option out wide for Lawrence with Kirk out. Parker Washington and Tim Jones also project to get more playing time, but little is expected from them. 

Lawrence is the biggest fantasy loser in this situation. He’s thrown for 9 TDs and 3 INTs over the last five weeks, but Thomas was responsible for 4 of those passing TDs and Kirk had another one. They were the big-play threats that kept defenses honest. Without them, defensive backs can sit on the shorter routes and keep plays underneath them. That crushes Lawrence’s stock. 

It’s still not 100% determined how long Thomas will be out. Fowler mentioned he’s still undergoing tests and will seek a second opinion. Thomas said during the open portion of practice on Monday that "everything was good" from today's MRI, so potentially good news on that front.  

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. is day to day with contusion on left side of his chest, per HC Doug Pederson. MRI did not show anything more severe. Chance he could play this week, Pederson said.

— Michael DiRocco (@ESPNdirocco) October 28, 2024

Either way, Kirk is done for the year, which gives Engram and Etienne a boost. Davis will have to become the big-play threat they hoped for when they signed him now that Kirk is sidelined.