Fantasy Football No. 1 Pick: Christian McCaffrey or CeeDee Lamb

Who should fantasy managers select with the No. 1 pick?

January 20, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs the ball against the Green Bay Packers during the first quarter in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

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Can you feel it?

No, I’m not talking about the oppressive heat wave that’s spread all over the country or the excitement over the next Taylor Swift show. I’m talking about the start of the 2024 fantasy football season!

Fantasy managers are getting their cheat sheets and rankings together, preparing their list of sleepers and busts (all of which you can find in the SI Fantasy Draft Kit), and getting ready to dominate their friends in upcoming league drafts.

Part of that preparation is knowing where you’ll be picking in the draft. And, if you draw the top spot, you can choose from any player in the league. Having the No. 1 overall pick hasn’t been great in recent years, however. Just ask anyone who took Justin Jefferson last season. He missed seven games due to injuries and finished just 33rd in PPR points.

Coincidentally, the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick in 2022, Jonathan Taylor, missed six games and finished … you guessed it …  33rd in points among running backs.

The previous two seasons saw Christian McCaffrey go first, and he ranked RB38 and RB54, respectively, while missing significant time due to injuries. In all, the last five first overall picks (Jefferson, Taylor, CMC – 2) have finished no better than 33rd at their respective position.

Furthermore, the last consensus No. 1 overall pick who went on to finish first in points at his position was Antonio Brown. That was back in 2016! Brown did what Jefferson, Taylor and CMC couldn’t do, and that was to meet the expectations of being the top choice.

Looking ahead to 2024 drafts, McCaffrey is again the consensus No. 1 overall pick. He’s washed away the stink of being “injury prone,” scoring a combined 747.7 points in the last two seasons. That’s 189.6 more points than the next-best running back, Austin Ekeler. What’s more, CMC has also outscored the top wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, in that time.

For those superstitious fantasy fans who don’t want to follow the crowd and take CMC for fear he falls prey to the “consensus pick curse,” there are three other options who warrant the top spot … last year’s top wideout, CeeDee Lamb, Hill, and Jefferson.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys

Lamb went off in the stat sheets last season, recording 135 catches and 1,749 yards with 12 touchdowns. That was good enough to finish with a league-high 403.2 points. While that could be a tough act to follow, Lamb will remain the centerpiece of the Cowboys' offense, and maybe more so now that the team’s backfield leaves a lot to be desired. Also, keep in mind both Lamb and Dak Prescott will be playing for massive new contracts, so there’s added motivation for both to produce at a very high level once again.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins

Hill has been a fantasy MVP candidate in each of his first two seasons in Miami, scoring a combined 723.6 fantasy points. The only other wideout with more than 700 points in that time is Lamb, and no other receiver has scored more than 600.9 points (Davante Adams). Hill has also seen his target totals increase each of his last five seasons, culminating in a career-high 171 in 2023. In a Dolphins offense that leans on the passing game and, more to the point, its wideouts, Hill warrants consideration for the top spot.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings

Jefferson, last season’s consensus top fantasy pick, has scored a combined 570.7 points in the last two years. Had he not missed seven games in 2023, he would likely have recorded over 700 points. The concern with J.J. this season is at quarterback, where the Vikings will start journeyman Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy. Either way, it’s a downgrade from Kirk Cousins, who left Minnesota for the Atlanta Falcons. The good news is Jefferson still averaged over 18 points per game without Cousins last season, but fantasy managers are looking for a 20-plus point-per-game average from the top overall selection.

As a result, I can see J.J. falling out of the top five and being picked behind Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall and Ja’Marr Chase. In fact, Jefferson is currently coming off the board with the seventh overall pick, on average, at the National Fantasy Football Championships. In my opinion, that’s too low and a potential bargain pick for fantasy drafters.

Christian McCaffrey or CeeDee Lamb

Even though the last four consensus top picks have suffered injuries, it’s still difficult to pick against McCaffrey. He’s the Marshall Faulk or LaDainian Tomlinson of this era, and he’s been far more durable over the last two years. The fact that he’s a running back, a position that has lost value in recent years, is also an advantage for CMC.

For those fantasy fans with the top overall pick looking to go Zero RB, however, Lamb is the player to draft. Remember, wide receiver has become the most important spot in fantasy lineups, and the decline of the running back means more good players will be available at the position in the early middle rounds. So, while McCaffrey is tough to pass on, those fans wanting to focus on wideouts wouldn’t be questioned about selecting Lamb.  

The goal, no matter where you’re picking, is to build a balanced team with few if any glaring weak spots heading into the regular season. And in this new era of fantasy football, going wideouts early and waiting a few rounds for running backs can achieve this roster goal.

Even if that means passing on McCaffrey at No. 1.