Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers: These Three Veterans Will Outperform Their ADP

Jennifer Piacenti | Jul 18, 2024

Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) drops back to pass against the Denver Broncos during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

You know who you are targeting as your QB1. You're grabbing an early pick like Lamar Jackson or CJ Stroud. But who is going to cover your bye weeks? And in your super flex leagues, how soon do you need to take that second (or third) signal-caller?

After doing some early drafting, I've zeroed in on these veteran quarterbacks who should outperform their current average draft position (ADP).

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Despite finishing as the QB12 on a per-game basis last season, Herbert continues to fall in drafts. I have been able to grab him in the final rounds of multiple expert leagues, and at that ADP, I am all in.

Herbert finished with more fantasy points per game last season than Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff. He missed the last four games of the year with a broken finger, but that should be no issue to start 2024.

The Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh in the off-season, and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams left for new teams. The concern is that the Chargers will move to a run-heavy offense, and that will cap Herbert's upside with his new receivers. I'm more optimistic.

For one thing, they can't be a wholly run dominant team with the likes of Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and rookie Kimani Vidal. For another, Joshua Palmer has been good when given an opportunity, rookie Ladd McConkey already has excellent buzz and chemistry with Herbert, Quentin Johnston was misused last season in Kellen Moore's offense, and a healthy DJ Chark can still be a deep threat. Don't forget Greg Roman's love for the tight end potsition, too. Hayden Hurst is now in Los Angeles as is Will Dissly. Herbert will be working with better protection from his offensive line which should give plays more time to develop. Now, let's talk about raw talent.

Herbert has finished as the QB7, QB2, QB15, and QB10 on a per-game among quarterbacks with at least six starts since he started in the NFL. He has elite arm talent, and with a dependable run game, which he didn't have last season, more things could open up for the passer who has averaged 278 passing yards (more than Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa) and 1.85 touchdowns per game in his career. Among active QBs, he ranks sixth in career PPR points per game (19.6). I'll take the chance in the last round every day of the week. 

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Is it hard to bet on an aging quarterback returning from Achilles surgery, but there are plenty of reasons to be excited at this ADP. First, let me address the injury:  the Achilles injury occurred to his lead/plant food, not his power/drive foot. If he loses any velocity this season, it is just as likely due to age as to injury. 

Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) warms up before the game against the Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

We didn't get a chance to see Rodgers in this offense last season, and in his last full season, he was a disappointment. He showed significant regression in 2022 with Green Bay, throwing a career-high 12 interceptions and passing for a mere 26 touchdowns and a career-low 217 passing yards per game.  He suffered a broken rib and an injury to his throwing thumb in 2022 while also playing without veteran wideout Davante Adams.

However, Rodgers is now reunited with the offensive coordinator that helped him win consecutive MVPs in 2020 and 2021. Nathaniel Hackett will also be looking for a bounce-back season. Rodgers will have a top offensive line and a clear WR1 in Garrett Wilson, who was able to amass more than 1,000 receiving yards with inconsistent quarterback play from some combination of Zach Wilson, Trevor Semien, and Tim Boyle in 2023. Wilson led the league with a 45.8% air yards share in 2023, and if he remains Rodgers's favorite target, the ceiling is tremendous. Rodgers has peppered his WR one throughout his career, and he has a career 6.2% touchdown rate. That is superior to both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. 

Rodgers also will have the threat of a potent run game led by Breece Hall, which should open up the passing game even more for the veteran passer. It's worth noting that the Jets' stellar defense may reduce the number of shootouts for Gang Green, but I think Rodgers should put up a solid floor weekly while having a few big games here and there.  

Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Russell Wilson was much better than people give him credit for in Denver last season — especially in fantasy football. On a per-game basis, Wilson scored more fantasy points than Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence and almost the same as Patrick Mahomes. He had the ninth-most passing touchdowns (26) despite playing in only 15 games, the eighth-best passer rating among QBs with eight or more starts, and his 341 rushing yards ranked seventh at the position. 

Wilson also tied Geno Smith for the most comeback wins last season (4). Now he gets WR George Pickens as a deep threat, a strong run game in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and a coach who has never had a losing season in his 17-year career.

Yes, Justin Fields is in the wings, but this job is Wilson's to lose. Pittsburgh is already embracing WIlson, and with Mike Tomlin and the supporting cast, there's a real possibility WIlson could revive his career in Steel City.

Wilson is going so late that you don't have to draft him in one-quarterback leagues, even as a bye-week QB. In superflex, he is my favorite QB3.