Fantasy Football: Which Second-Year Quarterbacks Will Become a Fantasy Star in 2024?

History tells us at least one second-year QB will have a monster season.

Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) warms up before a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas., Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. / Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA

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Fantasy managers are always looking for the next big thing, mostly in the form of a potential sleeper or breakout candidate. Sometimes, looking at historical trends can give us some guidance.

One such trend that’s occurred over the last few years features quarterbacks. Since 2015, at least one second-year signal-caller has exceeded expectations and become a draft steal. That player has ultimately gone from a late-rounder to a fantasy starter.

Wild, right? But it’s true.

Here’s a look at the quarterbacks who this trend has been based upon.

Blake Bortles, Jaguars (2015): The “Garbage Time King” as he was known, Bortles saw his points-per-game total increase by 7.8 points compared to his rookie season. He finished fourth in all, scoring 316.1 fantasy points. However, this would be his best year in fantasy football as Bortles saw his points decline in each of his final four years.

Carson Wentz, Eagles (2017): Wentz went off in 2017, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game as a sophomore. That was up more than eight points compared to his rookie totals. Unfortunately, Wentz got hurt after 13 games. He still finished fifth in points among quarterbacks. Like Bortles, this would also be Wentz’s best fantasy season.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (2018): Mahomes’ situation differed from that of Bortles and Wentz in that he sat as a rookie behind Alex Smith. He produced his best fantasy season in Year 2, with 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns. In all, Mahomes averaged 26.1 points a game and was the top fantasy quarterback.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens (2019): Jackson started seven games as a rookie, averaging a mere 9.9 points. Like the four other quarterbacks before him, he had his best fantasy season as an NFL sophomore with 43 total touchdowns, over 1,206 rushing yards and 415.7 points. Oddly, Jackson’s points declined each of the following three years before he bounced back with 331.2 points and an MVP performance in 2023.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (2020): Murray busted out as an NFL sophomore, scoring 378.7 fantasy points on the strength of his 37 total touchdowns. What’s more, he averaged 5.9 more points per game than he had during his rookie campaign. Murray was also good in his third season, and he’s averaged more than 18 points per game since 2022.

Joe Burrow, Bengals (2021): Burrow posted decent numbers as a rookie, averaging 17.4 points per game before going down with a torn ACL. The LSU product busted out in the stat sheets the following year, scoring 314.2 points and finishing eighth in points. Unlike the other quarterbacks in this research, Burrow was even better in his third season with 350.7 points. He remains one of the most valuable quarterbacks in fantasy drafts.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (2022): Lawrence endured a dreadful rookie season, in part due to the mess that was Urban Meyer. He rebounded as an NFL sophomore with 295.6 points. His points-per-game average jumped by nearly six points, too. Lawrence did take a step back last season, so Year 2 is still his best fantasy football season.

Brock Purdy, 49ers (2023): Purdy was sensational in Year 2, pushing his points-per-game average from 11.8 as a rookie to 18.5 … a near seven-point increase. He also finished sixth in fantasy points at quarterback, ahead of stars like Mahomes and Justin Herbert (to name just a few). He’s now a low-end QB1 heading into most 2024 fantasy drafts.

What History Taught Us

Alright, so what can we assert from this trend and the players involved? For one, the jump in points as a sophomore from those who played as a rookie is around six per game. In fact, only Burrow saw a jump of fewer than 5.7 points. Jackson and Mahomes saw bigger leaps, but they didn’t start most of their rookie games (or any in the case of Mahomes).

The other trend we found is that among these quarterbacks, their second year was or has been to this point their best fantasy season. Bortles saw his points decline in each of the following four years, and Wentz was never able to recapture the magic he made as an NFL sophomore. Jackson and Murray had nice point-per-game averages last season, but neither was close to the impressive totals he produced in his second season.

Dec 31, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the fourth quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports / Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy Football Quarterback Breakout Candidates

The most obvious choices to outperform expectations or bust out this season are Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, or Will Levis. The stock of Richardson and Stroud is already high, however, as both are being picked among the first five to eight quarterbacks based on average draft position data. So, those are the low-hanging fruit.

The two quarterbacks who could bring the most value are Young and Levis. Both had mostly forgettable rookie seasons, and their respective teams did a lot of work in the offseason to improve the talent around them. When you also consider they’re both going in the double-digit rounds, it’s easy to like Young and Levis as draft bargains.

No matter who it might be (we all expect Richardson to break out and for Stroud to take a leap closer to fantasy stardom) one thing seems likely based on this sticky trend … at least one second-year quarterback will make a big statistical jump this season.