Fantasy Football Stats: Quarterback Target Tendencies to Wide Receivers

Michael Fabiano | Aug 23, 2024

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford during warmups before the NFC wild-card game at Ford Field on Sunday, Jan, 14, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

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The NFL has become a passing league, as quarterbacks and their receivers post big, and often historic totals in the stat sheets. That’s had a trickle-down effect in fantasy football, as wideouts have overtaken running backs as the most desirable position in drafts. That becomes obvious when you look at average draft position data, as wide receivers are the most prominent players being picked in the top five rounds.

Of course, some wideouts are more valuable than others, due in part to talent and skill set. However, being in an offense that allows its quarterback to target the position often is also a big part of finding statistical (and fantasy football) success.

To find which wideouts are in the best positions to succeed, here are the quarterbacks and offenses that targeted the position the most … and the least … in 2024.

Note: Quarterbacks in this research started a minimum of 10 games last season.

Positions: Running Backs | Tight Ends

Most Targets

1. Matthew Stafford, Rams (67.8%): In Stafford’s two full seasons as the Rams starter, he has targeted wide receivers more than any other quarterback. That’s no surprise when you have Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods (2021) and now Puka Nacua. This trend should continue this season, making Kupp and Nacua attractive options based on their offenses. While the latter is being picked higher, Kupp might become the better bargain in drafts.

2. Joe Burrow, Bengals (67.1%): When your offense boasts Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, it’s no surprise to see Burrow ranked second in targeting wideouts. In fact, he’s been in the top six among quarterbacks in targeting the position in each of his three years in the NFL. It’s a total no-brainer, even with a new offensive coordinator in Dan Pitcher, that Chase and Higgins will remain attractive options in 2024 fantasy drafts.

T-3. Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (65.9%): Mayfield finished 10th in fantasy points among quarterbacks last season, and much of it had to do with his wide receivers. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin made up for 236 of Mayfield’s 566 pass attempts (42%), so it’s no surprise to see him tied for third on this list. Not much should change under new offensive coordinator Kiam Coen, so look for Evans and Godwin to dominate targets once again.

T-3. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (65.9%): The Dolphins have one of the league’s best wide receiver duos in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, making it easy to see why Tagovailoa is tied for third on this list. Last season, nearly 50% of his pass attempts went to Hill and Waddle alone! Tua might see an increase in this percentage in 2024 too, as the Dolphins now have veteran playmaker Odell Beckham Jr. as the No. 3 weapon in the pass attack.

5. Aidan O’Connell, Raiders (65%): The Raiders' main offensive threats last season were Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, who combined for 301 targets among their 554 pass attempts. If there’s a concern, it’s that new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s system in Chicago targeted wideouts just 50.5% of the time last year. That was the fifth-lowest total in the league and could make it tough to support Adams and Meyers as regular fantasy starters. Obviously, the latter is far more likely to see his fantasy totals fall.

Notes: In what should be a surprise to no one, seven of the top 10 quarterbacks on this list averaged at least 15.9 points per game. That includes four (Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, Mayfield, Tagovailoa, and Stafford). Five of them ranked in the top 12 in overall points scored, and those five all threw for 4,000-plus yards as well.

Fewest Targets

1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (49.2%): Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football (despite a down year in 2023), and he’s done it without targeting his wideouts a ton. In fact, he has been in the bottom 10 among quarterbacks in that department every year of his pro career. That’s due in large part to the fact that his wideouts, beyond Tyreek Hill, have left much to be desired, and his top target has been a tight end, Travis Kelce. The additions of Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy, not to mention incumbent Rashee Rice (who is expected to be suspended) could change that a bit this season, but you must consider this trend when it comes to the Chiefs wideouts.

2. Russell Wilson, Broncos (50.8%): The Broncos wideouts left much to be desired last season. Not even Courtland Sutton, who scored 10 touchdowns, averaged more than 12 fantasy points. With either Bo Nix or Zach Wilson under center in Denver this season, I’d beware of selecting any Broncos wideouts prominently in most 2024 drafts.

3. Derek Carr, Saints (51.6%): Whether it’s been in Oakland, Las Vegas or New Orleans, Carr has rarely targeted his wideouts at a high rate. The only season he threw to the position often was 2022 when he had his old college pal, Davante Adams. The good news is when Carr does target his wideouts this season, a good portion of them will go to Chris Olave.  And while I do like his No. 2 wideout Rasheed Shaheed as a late-round sleeper, this trend indicates he could lack consistent production this season.

4. Brock Purdy, 49ers (52.5%): When you have Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle in your offense, it’s no surprise Purdy’s percentage of passes to wideouts is among the lowest. Regardless, Deebo Samuel Sr. (16.3 PPG) and Brandon Aiyuk (15.6 PPG) both had averages of more than 15 points per game. They also made up for 73.4% of the wideout targets on the roster last season. If this trend tells us anything, it’s Ricky Pearsall will have a tough time making a consistent impact as a rookie.

5. Jared Goff, Lions (55%): The Lions offense changed last season with the emergence of rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, who combined for 191 targets. That created fewer targets for wideouts, which showed in Goff’s drop from the 59.3% of his passes that went to wideouts in 2022. This doesn’t affect Amon-Ra St. Brown, who accounted for 49.2% of the passes Goff threw to his receivers last season. And, if we assume Jameson Williams absorbs the 64 targets Josh Reynolds received, he should get into the 100-110 target range.

Notes: Wilson targeted his wide receiver the fifth least last season, four spots behind the quarterback who targeted the position the least, Desmond Ridder. Coincidently, the coach behind Ridder’s lack of receiver targets, Arthur Smith, will now be calling plays for Wilson in Pittsburgh. So, besides potential fantasy breakout player George Pickens, I wouldn’t expect much from the Steelers wide receivers.