Fantasy Football Winners and Losers After NFL Preseason Week 1

Stock up, stock down report after the first week of preseason.

Jan 7, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White (35) gains yardage against the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Subscribe to Fantasy Dirt: Apple | Spotify | YouTube

The first week of the NFL’s preseason is in the books, giving fantasy managers their first look at what the 2024 versions of all 32 offenses might look like when the regular season begins. Most of the starters either played sparingly or not at all, but I was still able to pull out who I thought were some of the winners and losers from the first week of action.

While the next two weeks of preseason games (especially Week 3) will give us the best look at both offensive tendencies and potential player values, here are some initial thoughts on what we’ve seen to this point … and what we should keep tabs on the rest of August.

Winners

Zamir White, RB, Raiders: White, one of my favorite breakout players, got the start and saw the majority of the snaps with the Raiders' first-team offense. If he sees a similar role to the one he played at the end of last season when Josh Jacobs was injured, White could be a draft bargain. On a related note, Alexander Mattison looks like the team’s No. 2 back.  

Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos: Reports heading into camp suggested Williams and Samaje Perine were competing for one roster spot. However, that didn’t appear to be the case in their preseason opener. Williams got the start, and Perine continued his role as a third-down back. Now a full season removed from a torn ACL, Williams could end up as a potential value in drafts. As for sleeper Audric Estime, he is fourth on the depth chart.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans: The Titans backfield is looking like a committee with Spears and Tony Pollard splitting work. While the latter got the start against the 49ers, Spears entered the game on the second play. The two rotated snaps afterward before both exited the game. ESPN's ADP data has Pollard coming off the board three spots ahead of Spears, so he could be a slightly better value in drafts. Regardless, his stock is on the rise.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, Giants: The rookie appears to have the clear lead for the Giants’ No. 2 running back role behind Devin Singletary, as he worked with the starters against the Lions. He’s worth a late-round flier as No. 5 fantasy running back in most drafts.

Braelon Allen, RB, Jets: Allen has gained rave reviews in camp and looks like the handcuff for Breece Hall. In his first preseason action, the rookie got the start for head coach Robert Saleh. Allen is worth a late flier and insurance for those who draft Hall in Round 1.

Falcons wide receivers: Atlanta rested their starters against the Dolphins, but we still saw a clear difference in offensive philosophies compared to last season. In 2023, no team ran fewer snaps in 11 personnel (three wide receivers on the field). But in this contest, new OC Zac Robinson lined up in 11 personnel in 23 of 24 snaps with Michael Penix Jr. running the offense. This is great news for Drake London and the Falcons wideouts this season.

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Colts: The rookie out of Texas opened the game against Denver with the starters, seeing time in the slot. That’s the result of Josh Downs’ ankle injury, which could cost him the start of the regular season. The fact that Mitchell ran just 19.8% of his routes out of the slot in his final collegiate season aside, he could see more work with Downs on the sidelines. For those wondering, Alec Pierce was the second perimeter wide receiver alongside Michael Pittman Jr. Both played just seven snaps before exiting.

Nov 5, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Washington Commanders receiver Jahan Dotson (1) catches a pass for a touchdown during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders: A fantasy sleeper last season, Dotson failed to meet expectations. However, it looks like he could play a different role under OC Kliff Kingsbury. In his snaps with the starters, Dotson played the slot while Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown were on the perimeter. Last season, Dotson ran 39.4% of his routes out of the slot. This could be good news for Dotson, whose new role could mean more targets. On the flip side, this is bad news for rookie Luke McCaffrey, who is pushed down the depth chart.

Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders: Bowers is one of the most highly-touted tight end prospects to come out of college in a decade, and his usage was interesting in his preseason debut. He played 11 of 14 snaps in his lone drive, according to PFF, and the Raiders used him all over the field. He lined up on the perimeter twice, in the slot once, in the backfield twice and as a traditional tight end in his other six plays. This is good news for his rookie potential.

Johnny Mundt, TE, Vikings: Fantasy superstar T.J. Hockenson is expected to miss the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL, leaving the top spot open for a few weeks. If the first preseason game is any indication, Mundt will play that role. He saw 10 snaps, ran five routes, and was the Vikings' primary tight end in 11 personnel sets. Mundt could be worth a late flier in deeper leagues while Hockenson remains on the road to recovery.

Losers

D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears: Swift got the start against the Bills as expected, but he came out on the second play in favor of Khalil Herbert. Swift came back in for one more play before sitting out the rest of the contest. It’s a small sample size, but we should keep tabs on Herbert’s usage with the starters the rest of the preseason. If this trend continues into the next two games, it could mean Swift will be playing in a backfield committee.  

Zack Moss, RB, Bengals: I’m still on board with Moss as a potential breakout player, but he missed the first game of the preseason with an illness, allowing Chase Brown to get the start. He saw five carries and ran five routes, accumulating one catch and 10 total yards. Moss won’t be handed the starting job, so he needs to get back on the field soon to keep Brown from passing him on the Bengals’ depth chart heading into Week 1.

Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals: I have Benson listed as a “loser” as his role in the first preseason game indicates he won’t push James Conner for touches. Conner didn’t play against the Saints, leaving Benson as the lead ballcarrier (which we expected). Michael Carter got work on passing downs, however, and Emari Demarcado didn’t play. Benson will be a popular handcuff, but early indications are that he won’t push Conner into a committee situation when both players are healthy and on the active roster.

MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers: Lloyd not only appeared to be fourth on the Packers' depth chart behind Jacobs, AJ Dillon and Emanuel Wilson, but he also injured his hamstring and was pulled from the game against Cleveland. Depending on the severity, this injury could keep Dillon ahead of him and prevent the rookie from pushing him in the preseason.

Hollywood Brown, WR, Chiefs: Brown injured his left shoulder in Saturday’s preseason game against the Jaguars, and initial reports suggest he could miss several weeks. In fact, there’s some concern he could even miss regular-season games. If that’s the case, we could see Xavier Worthy moving past Brown in fantasy drafts. He ran with the starters in four of his six snaps, which means he’s no worse than third on the depth chart with Brown and Rashee Rice. So, if Brown misses time and Rice is suspended, Worthy’s stock rises.

Rasheed Shaheed, WR, Saints: Shaheed is a popular fantasy sleeper, but he missed the first game of the preseason with an injured hamstring. In his absence, Cedrick Wilson Jr. played with the starters and looks like the favorite to be the Saints' third wideout. I’m not moving Shaheed down in my rankings, but the longer he’s out the more chances others have to earn targets. The Saints were also without Kendre Miller and Juwan Johnson, so the team’s rotation at both wide receiver and tight end is still up in the air.

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Patriots: Polk, considered the top New England wideout from a fantasy standpoint, didn’t play a single snap with the starters. The perimeter starters were K.J. Osborn and Tyquan Thornton, while Kendrick Bourne and DeMario Douglas didn’t play due to injuries. The team cut JuJu Smith-Schuster, however, so I wouldn’t read too much into Polk’s absence. Still, it’s not what fantasy managers wanted to see from the popular deep sleeper.

Nov 12, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) cannot make a catch against the Detroit Lions during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers: Even though Ladd McConkey and Josh Palmer were rested, Johnston still couldn’t crack the starting lineup against Seattle. Instead, the Bolts went with D.J. Chark Jr., Brenden Rice and Simi Fehoko with the first team. This is not a guarantee that Johnston won’t crack the starting lineup, but it’s certainly not a good look. He’s barely worth a late-round flier in the majority of fantasy drafts.

Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Broncos: Mims Jr. has some deep sleeper appeal, but the first game of the preseason is a concern. Courtland Sutton is locked into the top spot on the depth chart, but it appears Tim Patrick and Josh Reynolds are ahead of Mims Jr. at this point. The X factor here is Patrick, who could see more work on the perimeter than expected. If that moves Reynolds inside, it would put a serious cap on Mims’ upside in fantasy.  

Cole Kmet, TE, Bears: We all knew Kmet’s stock was falling when the Bears added Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze, but he might have also fallen behind Gerald Everett on the depth chart. Remember, new OC Shane Waldron knows Everett well from their time in Los Angeles and Seattle. That could lead to a tight end rotation in 2024. That’s bad for Kmet, who is no longer in the TE1 conversation … even after a TE8 finish just last year.