How Hollywood Brown's Injury Affects His 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Value

Does Hollywood Brown's shoulder injury crush his fantasy football value? Or is he suddenly poised to become a draft-day steal?

Jul 22, 2024; St. Joseph, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquise (Hollywood) Brown (5) celebrates after catching a pass during training camp at Missouri Western State University. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Note: This story was originally published before the most recent report on Brown's return timeline. An update with the new information can be found at the bottom.

New Kansas City Chiefs WR Marquise "Hollywood" Brown suffered a sternoclavicular joint dislocation during Saturday's preseason loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, complicating his status in fantasy football drafts with most leagues approaching draft day.

Brown was expected to be one of Kansas City's leading receivers though the uncertain nature of his injury throws a wrench into those plans. Tyreek Hill missed four games in 2019 with the same injury. While we don't know exactly how long Brown will be out, it's likely he'll miss at least some time to start the season.

He's currently going as the WR38 in PPR leagues according to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data and 88th player overall. Considering the shoulder injury, how should fantasy players handle Brown?

Why Marquise Brown is Still Worth Drafting in Fantasy Football

The injury doesn't do much to change how you should be targeting Brown in fantasy football drafts. Rashee Rice is going off the board as the top Chiefs WR (WR36), and he remains the best pick of them all. But Brown should still be going off the board somewhere between Rice and Worthy (WR40), and he'll become a huge value if this injury causes

Despite the injury, Brown is still the second Chiefs WR fantasy players should target after Rashee Rice, who is dealing with his own bizarre circumstances. ADP has Rice as the WR36 and rookie Xavier Worthy the WR40 with Brown sandwiched in between them.

Brown has only 1,283 combined receiving yards over the last two seasons after a 1,000-yard effort in 2021, but that can largely be attributed to the decline in production to the Cardinals' miserable offense during that time. This is a prove-it year for Brown, who signed only a one-year deal in Kansas City this offseason. Thus, he should be highly motivated to perform well.

Patrick Mahomes is obviously the best QB Brown has ever played with. It's notable that Mahomes' first pass went to Brown, indicating his status in the offense's pecking order.

If Brown misses a month like Hill did, he'd only miss Kansas City's Week 1 game against Baltimore. For fantasy players, availability near the end of the season is far more important than playing in the first game. Provided the injury doesn't linger, it'd be a mistake to discount him heavily in drafts.

Brown's ADP sits around rookies like Keon Coleman, Rome Odunze, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., and Worthy. All of those players have their own respective questions, and Brown is certainly the most proven wideout of the bunch. Worthy does have an opportunity to earn more targets immediately in Brown's place, serving a similar role as a deep-threat, so he becomes a more intriguing player who could potentially produce immediately.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid indicated Brown will miss at least one game, but early reports don't suggest it'll be a long-term issue. It's never good to get hurt on your first snap with your new team, though Brown has worked with Mahomes frequently this summer to develop the necessary chemistry.

If Brown slips past WR40 or beyond, he becomes a screaming value for smart drafters. He's got 28 TDs over his five-year career and now enters the best situation he's ever had. Just a couple of years ago, Brown was going as one of the top 20 WRs. Even with the injury, Mahomes and Reid's presence should automatically boost Brown's value.

For those with drafts coming up soon, keep checking the injury reports for news on Brown. Unless he suffers a setback, it looks like he could become a league-winning type of value on an electric Kansas City offense.

Update - 4:00 PM August 13: New reports have emerged from Jordan Schultz that Hollywood Brown will miss 4-6 weeks with the injury.

Brown will now almost certainly miss the Chiefs' first two games of the season. He could miss Week 3 against the Falcons and Week 4 against the Chargers as well, essentially eliminating any fantasy value at the beginning of the campaign. His ADP will fall, and he should not be confidently drafted higher than the WR45 to WR50 range.

There's also the concerning possibility that the injury lingers. It's in play that Brown does not become a consistent contributor for the Chiefs until after their bye in Week 7. For fantasy teams that already have a strong WR core, Brown remains a high-upside pick beginning in Round 8, though more comfortably closer to Round 10.

Rice and Worthy should both be drafted ahead of Brown. Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy told reporters that Justin Watson will fill Brown's role, giving him some value in the latter rounds too.

Brown's path to fantasy relevance is much smaller now. However, he could still play a major role down the stretch provided fantasy owners don't count on him in the first half of the season.

And for all the rest of your draft prep needs, don't forget to check out the SI Fantasy 2024 fantasy football draft kit.