How Tua Tagovailoa's Concussion Impacts Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle in Fantasy Football

Dolphins QB suffered scary head injury vs Bills on TNF.

Sep 12, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) walks off the field after an apparent injury against the Buffalo Bills during the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Tua Tagovailoa was forced out of Thursday’s night loss to the Buffalo Bills, and the cause for his absence was nothing short of scary.

After running to gain a first down, he hit his head and neck against Damar Hamlin’s arm and shoulder. Tagovailoa stayed down for a few moments, during which time he appeared to go into a “fencing response.” That happens when a brain injury occurs. A few minutes later, the Dolphins ruled him out with a concussion.

NFL fans know a lot about Tagovailoa’s concussion history. In 2022, he suffered multiple head injuries that limited him to 13 starts. He returned to action shortly after the first of his concussions, which resulted in another concussion, and in a change in the way the NFL treats players who sustain head injuries (new concussion protocols).

I know that talking about the fantasy football implications of such a serious injury is trivial, but it’s part of the reaction to the situation. Tagovailoa is almost guaranteed to miss time, and it wouldn’t shock me if he’s out until after Miami’s Week 6 bye. The Dolphins must treat Tua with kid gloves because of his concerning concussion history, which had some former NFL players suggesting on Twitter/X that he should consider retirement.

In Tagovailoa’s absence, Skylar Thompson will become Miami’s new starting quarterback, unless/until they sign a free agent. A seventh-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Thompson has started just two games in his career, both as a rookie.

He entered two other games that season in which he had at least 21 pass attempts. In those four games, Thompson completed just 59.2% of his passes. He failed to throw for more than 166 yards in any of those four games, and he threw just one touchdown pass with two interceptions. Those numbers leave much to be desired.

In three games where Thompson has had at least 21 pass attempts, the stats of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are very concerning. Hill combined for 19 targets, 13 catches, 125 yards and no touchdowns. Waddle had 14 targets, 11 catches, 119 yards and no touchdowns.

Ouch.

Based on the stats from his eight combined games as a rookie, Thompson had an average depth of target of 7.3. His catchable throw percentage was 71.4%, and his highly-accurate throw percentage was 43.8.

By comparison, Tagovailoa had a 69.3% completion rate, an aDot of 8.0, a catchable throw rate of 79.3% and a highly-accurate throw rate of 56.4% in his 17 starts last season. If you haven’t figured it out yet, his absence is a huge concern for Hill, Waddle and any other Miami receivers, both in real and fantasy football.

All we can do now is hope and pray that Tagovailoa can return sooner rather than later because Thompson’s projected negative effect on the Dolphins' top fantasy receivers could leave managers frustrated and wondering if Hill and Waddle can retain their value.

Based on the numbers, that seems unlikely.

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