Is Puka Nacua a First Round Fantasy Football Pick?

Cooper Kupp is healthy, while Nacua may not be 100%. Drafters should consider a pivot to Garrett Wilson in the first round and Kupp in the fourth.

May 21, 2024, Thousand Oaks, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) during organized team activities at Cal Lutheran University. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Puka Nacua returned to practice Monday for the first time since suffering a knee injury in a joint practice with the Chargers on August 4th.

According to head coach Sean McVay, the knee has no structural damage. The reported diagnosis is a burst bursa sac. Bursas are fluid-filled sacs used to prevent a tendon from rubbing on a bone.

He is reportedly on track to start in Week 1 vs. Detroit.

Should this affect how you draft the sophomore pass-catcher? Will he be 100% to start the season? 

Puka Nacua took the fantasy world by storm in his rookie year, finishing as the fantasy WR4. He tallied 1,486 receiving yards in 2023, and if it weren't for some passer named CJ Stroud, Nacua would have walked away with an Offensive Rookie of the Year award, too. 

In his rookie season, Nacua averaged 9.4 targets and 87.4 receiving yards per game, with six touchdowns. He was also a yards-after-catch monster, with 632—the fifth-most in the league. Nacua took advantage of Cooper Kupp's injury, grabbing the alpha role from the onset.

Nacua fits perfectly into Sean McVay's offense, while Matt Stafford remains one of the league's better quarterbacks. The Rams averaged the 10th most passing yards per game (239) and the 14th most passing attempts last season. 

Nacua saw 35.38% of the team's air yards in 2023. That makes up for his 9.1 average depth of target (aDOT) being in the bottom 32% of the league.

It's also worth mentioning that he led the NFL in drops with 13. 

Reports from camp say that fellow wide receiver and veteran Cooper Kupp looks good and that he is "completely back" from his injuries. Kupp finished strong with four TDs in his final five games of 2023. He also had eight or more targets in four of them and more than 100 yards twice.

In his last fully healthy season (with no Nacua), Kupp was the WR1 in fantasy football. 

Nacua is coming off the board as the WR8 behind Garrett Wilson in fantasy drafts. He's often going on the turn between the first and second rounds. 

Puka Nacua's physical play style could make him more prone to injury, but he did not miss a single game during his rookie season. In addition, Rams wide receiver coach Eric Yarber said Nacua's off-season training program has been effective. Yarber says he has "lost so much body fat and gained so much lean muscle, which enables him to move more efficiently now."

We will not hold this minor preseason knee injury against him for now. 

Instead, I am dropping Nacua in my rankings because of Cooper Kupp's bounce-back potential. In 2021, Kupp had 145 catches, 1,947 receiving yards, and sixteen touchdowns. Even if he returns at only 70%, that will eat into Nacua's opportunity.

Sportsbooks are also bullish on Cooper Kupp's return. At DraftKings, his receiving yards total is set at 950.5, and his touchdowns are set at 6.5. 

Nacua's touchdowns are also set at 6.5, with the under juiced to -155.

I am OK with drafting Nacua in the middle-to-late second round, and Cooper Kupp is appealing at the third/fourth round turn. I will be fading Nacua in the first round. Instead, I would take Garrett Wilson in that spot.

A first-round pick for Nacua is based on his peak, and I won't be buying high because I anticipate some natural regression in his sophomore season.