Jerome Ford Fantasy Outlook Solidified By Latest Nick Chubb Injury Update

Jennifer Piacenti | Aug 31, 2024

Sep 18, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) warms up before the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Nick Chubb will officially open the season on the PUP list for the Cleveland Browns. 

This announcement is unsurprising, as Chubb is returning from a gruesome injury. In Week 2 of the 2023 season, Chubb tore both his ACL and MCL after taking a hit on the left knee from Pittsburgh's Minkah Fitzpatrick, causing him to miss the remainder of the year. Two surgeries were required to repair the damage. 

However, reports on Chubb in camp have been positive, and fantasy managers have been drafting Chubb after round 7 in hopes he will be able to carry them into the fantasy playoffs. 

It's still a shot worth taking, but first, let's discuss how to handle the Browns' backfield in your fantasy drafts.

Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong, Jr. and How to Handle the Browns Backfield in Fantasy Football

Jerome Ford becomes the primary runner to start the NFL season for Cleveland. Pierre Strong Jr. was the first running back after Ford in the first preseason game and started the second, and looked like he may be the next runner-up before he suffered an upper-body injury during practice. He did not play in the final preseason game.

D'onta Foreman was released on Tuesday, though some beat reporters expect him to be re-signed once they make a decision about quarterback.

The good news is that, for fantasy managers, Ford is the clear runner to draft to start the season for the Browns. He's currently going at an ADP of 114, usually around the ninth or tenth round. That's excellent value if you believe Chubb won't return or plan to draft the duo. 

I will still be betting on Chubb's return, and this news should give us another discount even though it is not a surprise. Even if Chubb had returned in the first four weeks of the season, he wouldn't have been startable.

What to Do With Nick Chubb

Chubb will return this season. Why? In the offseason, the Browns reduced Chubb's salary by around $4 million but gave him the opportunity to make up for it in incentives. In other words, Chubb has every reason to return for his age-28 season. 

Will he be able to cut and run like he used to? That's the four million-dollar question.

Let's examine a similar case study from just last year. Jonathan Taylor suffered a similar injury in Week 4 of the 2022 season, and fantasy managers had to determine what level of risk they could tolerate when drafting him for 2023. Taylor opened the season in the PUP list and started for the Colts in Week 5 but did not return to form until Week 7. He also missed weeks 13-15 before finishing strong as what would have been RB3 in PPR leagues in Week 18 of the season (unfortunately, most fantasy leagues don't include Week 18). Taylor finished as the RB33 overall but the RB8 per game in PPR leagues. 

If Chubb were to return to form in Week 7 like Taylor, would he be worth an eighth-round pick? It depends on your risk tolerance, but I am willing to make a bet with the availability of a clear handcuff in Jerome Ford.

If you don't believe in Chubb's return, Ford should move even further up your queue.

Chubb had four consecutive seasons of 1,000+ rushing yards before his 2023 injury. He had his best season yet in 2022, totaling 1,734 all-purpose yards and 13 touchdowns. 

The Browns averaged 118.6 rushing yards per game last season without Chubb, which ranked 11th. Ford, who filled in as RB1 for much of Chubb's absence, finished as the RB17 overall in 2023. 

Looking for more analysis as you prepare for draft day? Don't miss out on the wealth of information available for free in Sports Illustrated's 2024 fantasy football draft kit.