Jordan Mason Negatively Impacts Christian McCaffrey's Fantasy Football Value Rest of 2024

Expect 49ers to use committee approach.

San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason. / David Gonzales-Imagn Images

Christian McCaffrey was the near-consensus first overall pick in Fantasy Football this season, but managers who selected him are biting their nails this morning after his backup, Jordan Mason, put up a monster performance in Week 1 while McCaffrey sat out with a calf injury.

They have every reason to be concerned.

McCaffrey was a late scratch ahead of the 49ers' Monday night win over the Jets. He sustained a calf injury early in training camp, but initial indications were he would be ready to go by Week 1. Instead, the 49ers said he wasn't playing just over an hour before game time and then NFL insider Adam Schefter said there's a good chance McCaffrey misses Week 2 as well.

The 49ers have since said he has Achilles tendinitis, though they haven't indicated how long he's out. What we do know is it's a serious enough injury that he missed one week and could miss a second, though the fact that he wasn't put on IR suggests he won't miss more than three games.

On the field, the 49ers didn't miss a beat as Mason, an undrafted free agent, rushed for 147 yards and a TD against the Jets in Week 1. While many will look at this as a one-game apparition, I think it could be a harbinger of relatively bad news for McCaffrey fantasy football managers.

Mason looked powerful and decisive running the ball against the Jets, hitting holes fast and breaking a few big runs. Part of that was due to the 49ers offensive line eating up the Jets D-line. But if he can keep running the ball this way, why would the 49ers rush McCaffrey back? The answer is they won't.

The 49ers are all-in on a Super Bowl this year, having lost in the big game last year, and knowing the core of McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy and the rest aren't going to be together much longer. As they take that long view, a healthy McCaffrey in the second half of the season is much more important than rushing him back in the first half.

While McCaffrey will assume lead-down status in the backfield when he returns, the 49ers will likely ease him back into that role. Let's not forget, he had 272 rushing attempts last year and 67 catches. Those were his highest totals since his third year in the league with the Panthers. Now 28 years old, the 49ers can't expect him to shoulder that kind of load again and finish the season healthy.

If Mason can take even 25% of those touches and the 49ers are winning, it makes sense for them to limit McCaffrey's touches until the second half of the season. Mason's usage (28 carries + 1 catch) and performance in Week 1 indicates he can.

While McCaffrey is, of course, a must-start when he returns, I don't see him replicating his performance from last year. The injury is a big reason why, but there are several other circumstances indicating fantasy regression.

It might not be the news McCaffrey managers want to hear, but the tea leaves suggest this is reality.