Justin Jefferson Gets Paid, But He's Still Not Fantasy's Top Wide Receiver

Michael Fabiano | Jun 3, 2024

Jan 7, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) looks at the big screen during second half of the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports / David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

“Mamas, let your babies grow up to be wide receivers!”

The latest wideout to get his bag is fantasy superstar Justin Jefferson, who has agreed to a four-year, $140 million contract extension with the Minnesota Vikings, which makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history (at least, for right now).

Jefferson has been a stat-sheet monster ever since he entered the league, averaging no fewer than 17 fantasy points per game in a single season. Over the last two years, that average has jumped over 20 points per game. He’s also averaged over 106 receiving yards per game and has scored 14 total touchdowns in that time (27 games).

So, this all makes Jefferson the best wideout in fantasy football, right?

I would argue against it. Not that he isn’t still super talented and an elite fantasy wideout, but questions at the quarterback spot in Minnesota plus the emergence of other players at the position with better field general situations has dropped him from the top spot.

One of those players is CeeDee Lamb, who led all wideouts in fantasy points last season. He’ll continue to catch passes from Dak Prescott in a Cowboys offense that might throw the ball even more this season, as their backfield leaves much to be desired. Tyreek Hill is also ahead of Jefferson, as he has put up fantasy MVP type numbers in Miami over the last two years, and has an established rapport with his quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa.

Some fantasy managers could also make an argument for putting Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase ahead of Jefferson. Both have put up high-end PPR totals and will be catching passes from incumbent starters in Jared Goff and Joe Burrow, respectively.

Jefferson, on the other hand, will have either a rookie in J.J. McCarthy or a journeyman in Sam Darnold under center after Kirk Cousins left for the Atlanta Falcons. This isn’t some statistical death sentence for Jefferson, however. If we learned anything from last season, it’s that he can be a high-end point producer even while catching passes from backups.

In his five games without Cousins and with Nick Mullens under center, he averaged 6.4 catches, 100.6 yards and scored two touchdowns. That equated to 18.6 points per game. That’s solid, but it’s also a dip from the 7.2 catches, 114.2 yards and three touchdowns he scored in five games with Cousins. In those games, he averaged 21.8 fantasy points.

At 18.6 points per game, Jefferson would have ranked fifth among receivers last season behind Lamb, Hill, Keenan Allen and St. Brown. Again, we’re not talking about a huge fall. But I’d rather go with an elite wideout with a more stable quarterback situation like Lamb and Hill, even if Jefferson is being paid at a higher level than his contemporaries.