NFL Schedule Could Be Fantasy Football Trouble for Managers

Michael Fabiano | May 16, 2024

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts to his second touchdown to regain the lead against / Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and

The 2024 NFL schedule was released on Wednesday night, and it’s chock full of big-time matchups and games loaded with fantasy superstars. While I’ve already talked about why the schedule release is mostly useless in fantasy leagues, at least in terms of fantasy points allowed data and the “best” and “worst” schedules, there were a few interesting nuggets I picked out of the new 2024 NFL slate.

Here’s a look.

The Bye Weeks

The byes begin in Week 5 with the Chargers, Eagles, Lions and Titans and end in Week 14 with a poorly-timed (for fantasy purposes) byemaggedon. Six teams are off in Week 14, including the Broncos, Commanders, Colts, Patriots, Ravens and Texans. So, fantasy managers won’t have big-time superstars like Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr. and Mark Andrews a week before the start of the fantasy postseason.

There are two weeks in this stretch with no byes (Week 8, Week 13) and four with four teams off. That includes Week 5 (Chargers, Eagles, Lions, Titans), Week 6 (Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings), Week 10 (Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks) and Week 11 (Buccaneers, Cardinals, Giants, Panthers). Two weeks will have two teams off, including Week 7 (Bears, Cowboys) and Week 9 (49ers, Steelers). 

The most notable among these bye weeks is Week 6, when fantasy managers will be without Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford and Tua Tagovailoa. Their teams are loaded with fantasy stars at other positions too, especially at wide receiver (Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Jaylen Waddle, Rashee Rice).

As a result, reserves will be utilized in a lot of lineups.

The NFL also hit us with two byemageddons (six teams on a bye), and they’re both late in the season. The first comes in Week 12, when the Bills, Bengals, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets and Saints are out, and the second in Week 14 with the Broncos, Commanders, Colts, Patriots, Ravens and Texans on the sidelines.

This isn’t ideal in fantasy, because many teams will be making a postseason push.

Championship Week Concerns

The NFL schedule could cause fantasy fans a lot of headaches in their league title games. That is Christmas Week, and the league now has two games after Santa’s arrival: the Ravens face the Texans and the Steelers host the champion Chiefs. Those four teams have plenty of fantasy stars, and the games will be played on a Wednesday. That is already odd enough, but there’s other hurdles to consider.

First, how will these teams respond to playing two games in five days? Second, how will managers make tough lineup decisions on injured players when we won’t have the actual injury report for the Sunday slate of games? That will be difficult.

Clearly, the NFL didn’t do us any favors.

Big QB Battles in Championship Week

If you’re looking for oodles of fantasy points when you need them to the most, look at some of these potentially outstanding quarterback matchups in Week 17:

• Patrick Mahomes vs. Russell Wilson/Justin Fields (Christmas)
• Lamar Jackson vs. C.J. Stroud (Christmas)
• Dak Prescott vs. Jalen Hurts
• Aaron Rodgers vs. Josh Allen
• Kyler Murray vs. Matthew Stafford
• Tua Tagovailoa vs. Deshaun Watson
• Jared Goff vs. Brock Purdy (Monday)

That Ravens-Texans matchup is fantasy gold, featuring a plethora of superstars in what will likely be a super important game in the AFC. As I mentioned earlier, we’ll have to hope the short time between games isn’t a factor. Prescott and Hurts, both big time fantasy stars last season, could be playing for the NFC East crown. Rodgers and especially Allen will be needed to produce both for their teams and fantasy fans, while Murray and Stafford could be involved in a high-scoring contest.

Tagovailoa and Watson will be borderline fantasy starters most of the season, but Miami playing in Cleveland in late December could be a problem for fantasy fans. Finally, Goff and Purdy will clash in a rematch of the NFC Championship.

Saints Coming Marching In

The New Orleans Saints have the NFL’s most favorable schedule, at least based on fantasy points allowed from the previous season. Their toughest opponents include the Browns, Chiefs and Cowboys, and their slate is loaded with mediocre or worse defenses based on 2023 totals. This isn’t going to make me want Derek Carr more in drafts, but it certainly makes guys like Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave appealing. It could also elevate Kendre Miller, Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson in drafts.

Buffalo Bills Blues?

The Bills offense is going to look a lot different this season, as the team traded away Stefon Diggs and lost Gabe Davis as a free agent. In their place are rookie Keon Coleman and veterans Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That alone is reason for at least some concern for Josh Allen’s fantasy appeal, but his team also faces the toughest schedule in the league based on last year’s fantasy data.

That isn’t always trustworthy (in fact, oftentimes it’s not), but Allen and the Bills have a tough slate on paper late in the year. Four of their final six games during the fantasy season and playoffs are against defenses that allowed an average of fewer than 15 points per game to quarterbacks in 2023. That includes matchups against the Chiefs, 49ers, Patriots and Jets. However, there is a caveat: Allen has put up huge totals against three of those teams during his productive NFL career.

In his last six games against the Patriots, Allen has scored 21-plus points five times. He’s also posted at least 20.6 points in five of his last six games against the Jets and at least 20.5 points in six of seven regular-season games against the Chiefs.