Patrick Mahomes’ Fantasy Breakout Sets Up for Great Sell-High Situation

Try to trade Mahomes after this week.

Now is the time to sell high on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football. / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Patrick Mahomes finally had the breakout game Mahomes’ fantasy truthers have been seeking, throwing for 262 yards and 2 TDs against 1 INT in a win over the Raiders and scoring 18.2 points in fantasy football. 

Mahomes has a chance to build on that when the Chiefs play the beleaguered Bucs secondary in Week 9 too, a unit that has given up the most points per game on average (22.8) to fantasy football quarterbacks this season. 

While this is exciting news for anyone who drafted Mahomes high and held on to him hoping he could turn it around, this is actually the best chance you’ll have to sell high on him ahead of the trade deadline. Start him against the Bucs this week, and then try to trade him the week after with the understanding Mahomes will not make the same kind of impact the rest of the season. 

After taking on the Bucs, the Chiefs play the Broncos and Bills. The Broncos give up the fourth-fewest points on average to opposing quarterbacks (12.2) and the Bills give up the fifth-fewest (13.4). 

After that, they play the Panthers and Raiders, opponents who give up 20.1 and 16.6 fantasy points per game on average, respectively, to opposing QBs. 

That's the good news. The bad news is the Chiefs play the Chargers, who give up 13.9 points per game on average, in the last game of the fantasy football regular season, and then face the Browns, Texans, and Steelers in the fantasy playoffs. They give up 16.2, 16.7, and 12.2 fantasy points per game on average, respectively, to QBs. 

Not exactly a gauntlet, but certainly not what you hope for in the playoffs. 

On the year, Mahomes is averaging 206.4 passing yards, 4.1 rushing yards, 1 TD and 1.1 INTs per game. Since Rashee Rich got injured, he’s thrown 3 TDs against 5 INTs. Without a true WR1 (no, Deandre Hopkins is not the reincarnation of Rice), Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have become a run-first operation. 

The Chiefs are running the ball 31.1 times per game, the sixth-most in the NFL, while they’re throwing it 32.1 times per game, 14th-most. That balanced approach is leading to wins, but not many fantasy points for Mahomes. 

That won't change down the home stretch. This team is building for the playoffs, not the fantasy playoffs. To win, they run the ball and rely on the defense to shut the opponent down.

With the fantasy football trade deadline approaching, and with Mahomes putting up a decent game last week and presumably another strong one against a weak defense in Week 9, it’s time to see what you can get in return for the former fantasy star. His name carries more gravitas than his performance, but you can spin it as a player on the upswing in the home stretch if he performs well against the Bucs. 

The truth is, Mahomes is a matchup-based starter in fantasy this year and won’t have enough good matchups down the stretch to start him for a playoff run.