Washington Nationals Breakout, Bust and Value

Coming off their World Series victory in 2019, fantasy baseball players have their eyes on the Nationals roster

Anytime a team wins their league’s championship, the hype for players from that roster are usually overvalued the following season. Whether it’s the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl or the Nationals winning the World Series, fantasy sports players are eyeing up grabbing players from the reigning champs and often end up overpaying for those players. As Sports Illustrated’s fantasy baseball analyst Shawn Childs points out, there are still some players from the Nationals that are either flying under the radar or on his do not draft list.

In Childs’ recent article on SI Fantasy, he points out starting pitcher Victor Robles is poised for a breakout and calls second baseman Starlin Castro a value pick based on the latest Average Draft Position data. But when it comes to pitcher Patrick Corbin, Childs warns fantasy managers to stay away from drafting the lefty.

For more on Childs’ analysis on the Nationals, read the transcript from his conversation:

Bill Enright: Coming off their World Series victory 2019 fantasy baseball players are eyeing up the roster of the Washington Nationals who should be drafted and who should you avoid. Let's ask the experts by talking with Ben Heisler and Shawn Childs, your fantasy baseball analysts here at Sports Illustrated. Shawn, I'm going to ask you first, let's talk about Starlin Castro. What do you think of him for 2020?

Shawn Childs: Yeah, he's a guy that if you're going to cheat a position in fantasy baseball, he's a pretty good value. He has an ADP of 255. Last year he set career highs and home runs and RBIs, 22 and 86. Actually at age 30 he has 1,617 hits which which put him on path to hit did possibly hit 3,000 hits would be kind of a Hall of Fame career, but he really doesn't have that kind of resume. But he's going to hit the back of the Nationals lineup and it's going to be a better lineup than he did have in Miami. And when you gain your edges in another position. You're just looking for a steady output of a player. And I think he fits that that M.O. He hit lefty, he's good. He hits a few too many ground balls. So his home run rate can't really explode without changing swing path. But I like him a lot where he goes in drafts.

Bill Enright: Ben, let's turn it over to you. Let's talk about the lefty pitcher, Patrick Corbin.

Ben Heisler: It's funny, Bill, this is why it's so important to read Shawn's work over at SI Fantasy, because I came in with pretty high expectations for Patrick Corbin. Right now his ADP is around 49, sort of that borderline starting pitcher one. And then you start going through some of the numbers again, you start to get a little bit concerned about the health of his arm. Really struggled in the postseason. So maybe coming back with a shortened season, it can be advantageous to him. But I also understand Shawn's concern, especially with how much he was getting pounded by right handed hitters. That's a concern for Patrick Corbin moving forward. 

Bill Enright: Let's stick with the players from the mound and talk about Victor Robles. Shawn, you're calling him a breakout candidate for 2020.

Shawn Childs: Robles is a guy that if you're looking for that unique base stealer, his ADP is 64, so around in the high stakes market, around the fifth round. And he's he's the type of player that could really make a push forward. He's kind of an interesting last year, he hit 17 home runs and people will be attracted to that, maybe he's going to push over 20 if they played a full season. But his hard hit rate ranked 450th, out of maybe like 500 players. So he was really at the bottom of the thing. So he could possibly push forward because he is talented, but he just needs to be hit the ball a lot harder, be trusted in the power. But the both the Nationals are probably gonna hit him at the back of a lineup, which hurts his runs a little bit. But if he does get a hot start and his power does come a little bit. Maybe you can push next to Trey Turner and get the top, you know, least top four or five batters to help his production. But overall, I think he's a talented player. And if I'm going to chase a base deal, I would rather go after him two rounds earlier in the high stakes market.

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