Brazilian Grand Prix Preview: Ferrari Fights for Full Control Over McLaren, Red Bull

After going back-to-back in Austin and Mexico City, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz may have taken over as the favorites in the title fight. Plus, the pressure on Red Bull has reached a boiling point.

Jay Janner/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Carlos Sainz desperately wanted to win another race with Ferrari before departing the team at the end of the season and he did so in authoritative fashion at last weekend’s Mexican Grand Prix. Despite losing the lead to Max Verstappen at the start, the 30-year-old Spaniard craftily passed the three-time champion on a safety car restart and cruised to the checkered flag from there, delivering what may be his final win in Ferrari red. 

Though it meant plenty to Sainz individually, what he did in Mexico to follow up teammate Charles Leclerc’s domination at the United States Grand Prix two weeks ago made a statement about Ferrari’s intentions this season. Team principal Fred Vasseur may be content to stay under the radar as Verstappen and Lando Norris duel for an individual title, but the Prancing Horse can no longer be ignored when it comes to the fight for a constructor’s championship.

At the Brazilian Grand Prix this Sunday, the third and final race of a tripleheader in the Americas, Red Bull and McLaren will be well aware of the pace of the Ferrari when the lights go out. Here’s what to watch at the front of the grid at São Paulo’s historic Interlagos circuit this weekend. 

Is Ferrari Now the Favorite?

What started as consistency during the European swing over the summer has turned into a flood over the last two race weekends for the Prancing Horse. Sainz followed up Leclerc’s comfortable victory in Austin with a thorough showing in Mexico City, converting from pole position and leading the way on another double podium finish for the Ferrari drivers. 

With a whopping 96 points (out of a maximum amount 103 in two Grands Prix and the sprint in Austin) across the last two weekends, Ferrari burst past Red Bull—which scored 37 points in the same span—in the team standings. The pair of Sainz and Leclerc is now only 29 points shy of McLaren, the most consistent outfit across the second half of the season, for the constructors’ lead. 

It’s not so much that Ferrari got itself back into the conversation over the last two races, but the manner in which it did so. Leclerc and Sainz have dominated, flawlessly driving what seems like the superior car on the grid at this point of the season.

The rise of the Ferrari continues the trend of a rather unorthodox, though fiercely competitive, year in F1. With Sainz’s second win of the season in Mexico, six different drivers have won two or more races for just the second time in the history of the sport and the first time in more than 40 years. Verstappen leads the way with seven victories, hence his cushion atop the standings, while Norris and Leclerc have three wins apiece. Sainz, Oscar Piastri and Lewis Hamilton round out the group of multi-time race winners with two each. 

Now, it has to be noted that performance will vary from track to track. McLaren tempered expectations in Austin, but felt strongly that Norris could have competed for a win in Mexico City. The team will look to maintain that performance with the track setups across the four last races, beginning in Brazil. Time will tell if that proves to be the case—or if the Ferrari momentum is already too strong to curb. 

The Fallout of Max Verstappen’s Penalties in Mexico

In the midst of a contentious 2021 championship battle with Lewis Hamilton, Verstappen pushed his rival right to the limit (and perhaps then some) at that year’s Brazilian Grand Prix. That race, just like this season’s, was the fourth from the end of the campaign and came at a time when every point was critical in the title fight.

Three seasons later and talk of Verstappen’s aggressive driving style is back at the forefront of the conversation in the paddock. Even George Russell, on the outside looking in at this year’s Verstappen-Norris scrap, said he thought the driving that resulted in the three-time world champion earning two 10-second time penalties in Mexico was unlike anything he’d seen since that 2021 Brazil race. Hamilton also witnessed the smoke and dust from behind the Mexico City scuffle and said he “knew [who] it must have been.”

Russell and Hamilton weren’t the only ones who had something to say when Verstappen finished sixth after twice driving off the track to keep Norris behind him last weekend. (In fairness, the first instance was more worthy of debate, whereas the second was a more clear cut example of the Red Bull driver not keeping to F1’s racing guidelines). Norris called it “not very clean driving,” saying he “hoped that Max acknowledges that he took it a step too far.”

It’s not Verstappen’s style to admit fault and he didn’t after the checkered flag. Red Bull team principal Christian Horner backed his driver, even bringing data charts to a post-race media session to argue his defense. Once again, it’s not a surprise to see a hard line drawn between the teams on either side of the stewards’ decisions.

What is certain is that Verstappen’s aggressiveness and willingness to do just about whatever it takes to win is now at the top of mind of the entire paddock. With only a few races left, how close the Red Bull driver chooses to toe the limit—and perhaps more importantly, how the stewards choose to litigate that approach—will bear keeping a close eye on.

Verstappen’s aggressive driving style was a topic of conversation in Mexico. / Jay Janner/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Red Bull’s Internal Strife and Waning Patience With Sergio Pérez

Perhaps part of the reason Verstappen is driving to the brink is because of just how much Red Bull has plummeted in recent months. What at first appeared to be a third straight runaway season for the 27-year-old and his team, quickly turned into a pressure cooker. 

Apart from the obvious departures at the technical level (designer Adrian Newey, who joined Aston Martin, and sporting director Jonathan Wheatley, who will become Audi’s team principal), the performance of the car has taken a visible dip. Verstappen looks more uncomfortable in a Red Bull than he has in some time, but has managed to do enough to stay atop the standings, even if he hasn’t won a race since mid-June. Pérez on the other hand … just looks uncomfortable. 

The performance of Red Bull’s second driver was already proving to be a problem in the team battle and that was well before his second DNF in four races at his home race in Mexico. Pérez went out in Q1 on Saturday, earned a penalty for a false start in the Grand Prix, clashed with and received an unsavory gesture from Liam Lawson (a member of Red Bull’s sister team RB) and finished dead last among drivers still out on track at the end of the race. 

Horner has stood by Pérez time and time again among questions about the 34-year-old’s future in the Red Bull system. However, he seemed to change his tune from earlier this season, saying after Mexico “there comes a point in time that difficult decisions have to be made.”

“We’re working with him as hard as we can to try and support him. I think we’ve done everything that we can to support Checo and we’ll continue to do so in Brazil next weekend.

“But there comes a point in time that you can only do so much.”

That’s a foreboding message from a team boss and if Pérez doesn’t contribute to Red Bull’s points count in Brazil, Horner’s hand might be forced to make a change.